A powerful earthquake last week pushed Syria’s authoritarian president, Bashar al-Assad, into the global spotlight, giving him the opportunity to step back on the international stage through disaster diplomacy.
EQUAL the death toll skyrocketed From the region’s deadliest earthquake in a century, Mr. Assad, long abandoned for bombing and torturing his own people during Syria’s civil war, has gained sympathy. support and interest from other countries.
Arab leaders shunned him for a decade picking up the phone and calling. Senior UN officials passed by his office, offering assistance and posing for photos. Aid flights come from more than a dozen countries — allies such as Russia, Iran and China, as well as Saudi Arabia, which previously only sent aid (and weapons) to the rebels. seeking to overthrow al-Assad.
“There is no doubt this is a good time for Assad,” said Emile Hokayem, a Middle East analyst at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London. “A tragedy for the Syrians is a boon for Assad, because nobody else wants to manage this mess.”
Visiting Syria’s earthquake-stricken cities over the past week, Mr. al-Assad may for once blame his country’s devastation on nature rather than war, and lashed out at the Western enemies he accused of “politicizing” the crisis.
The disaster prompted a slow effort by some Arab countries to bring al-Assad back to the world. On Monday, the United Arab Emirates, which is leading the effort, sent its foreign minister to the Syrian capital Damascus to meet Mr. al-Assad for the second time this year.
On Wednesday, the UAE increased its earthquake donation up to 100 million USD — a quarter of the entire UN emergency call for Syria.
In response to the approach, Mr. al-Assad, known for his intransigence, made a rare concession, allowing UN aid convoys to use two additional border crossings from Turkey. Turkey let aid be channeled directly into opposition-controlled territory for the first time. since the civil war started 12 years ago.
However, beyond gestures and goodwill, little has materially changed for al-Assad – especially the punitive US and European sanctions imposed in response. his use of chemical weapons against Syrian civilians, forcibly removing residents from opposition strongholds, and other abuses.
And large earthquakes can endanger struggling leaders.
In Mexico 1985and again in Turkey in 1999, the government’s weak response to major earthquakes caused public outrage which led to major political change, including the rise of Turkey’s powerful leaderPresident Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
If nothing else, the February 6 earthquake exposed the dire state of Syria under Mr. al-Assad. After a decade of fighting, the government has regained control of much of Syria, thanks to ruthless tactics and the help of allies Russia and Iran. The front lines were mostly quiet, and major clashes were rare.
Deadly earthquakes in Turkey and Syria
The 7.8 magnitude earthquake on February 6 with its epicenter in Gaziantep, Turkey, has become one of the deadliest natural disasters of the century.
But that put al-Assad at the top a penniless and divided country that was only part of his rule.
The northern and eastern regions of Syria are controlled by various enemies – Islamic rebels, Kurdish fighters and Turkish-backed Syrian opposition forces. About 900 US troops remain in the country, pursuing remnants of the Islamic State, its leader was killed in a raid by the US army last year in February (and by whom the heir was killed less than nine months later).
And the Syrian economy has plunged, strained by chronic food and fuel shortages. Millions of Syrians flee to Turkey other Middle Eastern countries or Europe; Those who remained were exhausted.
The days after the earthquake highlighted the Pyrrhic nature of al-Assad’s victory. When international rescue teams flooded into neighboring Turkey, only a few made it to Syria. Help from Iran and Russia is hardly enough, exposing the limits of the alliances on which al-Assad has relied to create a wall of separation from most of the world.
“The idea that Russia and Iran will come to the rescue is fading,” said Dareen Khalifa, a Syria expert at the International Crisis Group. “They only come when there is a battle, not when your ordinary Syrian is in trouble.”
In Syria, 7.8 magnitude earthquake and strong aftershocks hardest hit in Idlib, the populous opposition-held province in the northwest, accounts for four-fifths of the 5,500 deaths reported by the United Nations so far in the country. The death toll in Turkey has exceeded 36,000.
But even in government-controlled areas of Syria, shortages of medicine, medical equipment and heavy equipment like diggers are frequent, and rescuers have resorted to hammers. and their bare hands in the desperate hunt for survivors.
Abdul Qader Dawalibi, an official in the Aleppo governor’s office, has called on the United States to lift sanctions to allow the import of urgently needed heavy machinery.
“Every day more buildings fall. And every day, more and more people become homeless,” he said.
Aleppo is particularly vulnerable to earthquakes because many of its buildings were bombed by Assad’s forces during the war. Just last December, authorities announced they were demolishing 1,500 of the weakest structures.
“The international community has disappointed the Syrian people by not reacting quickly enough,” the statement read.
A growing sense of urgency about the need to address that shortfall is in the hands of Mr. al-Assad.
Hokayem, an analyst, said that quake diplomacy makes it “easier, less expensive and more affordable for some countries to talk to him”.
For the United Arab Emirates, moves toward al-Assad are part of a sometimes conflicting foreign policy in the region that also includes normalize relations with Israel. Another prominent supporter is Algeria, It’s really amazing for Syria to return to the Arab League.
But perhaps the most dramatic sighting this week was the first aid plane from Saudi Arabia that landed in the northern city of Aleppo, the first in more than a decade of war. .
Such moves dismay Syrians, who want al-Assad to face justice for his wrongdoings.
There is little sign, however, that the United States or Europe will ease sanctions against al-Assad and his cronies, although the United States has temporarily eased some restrictions with the aim of easing some restrictions. purpose of allowing earthquake relief money to flow more easily.
“Syria’s status as an abandoned country will not change significantly,” said Khalifa, an analyst.
Even among those who agreed, it was hesitant to hug Mr. al-Assad. Analysts say some hope to reduce Iranian and Turkish influence in Syria. For others, it was a reflex response to Western pressure.
But for the most part, they seem to be motivated by cold pragmatism – a tacit admission that al-Assad’s power is tight and unlikely to be challenged anytime soon.
“No one is seriously trying to bring down Assad anymore,” said Aron Lund, a Syria expert at the Century Foundation. “They’re just looking for terms for his integration and existence.”
The quake could also benefit al-Assad amid strained relations with Turkey, which backs militias that control a swath of northern Syria. Mr. Erdogan has proposed a possible meeting with Mr. al-Assad This year. Now, faced with an enormous rebuilding task in earthquake-stricken areas, and oppose a general election expected around the middle of the year, the Turkish leader is even less likely to upset the Syrians.
Even if the quake opens the door for al-Assad abroad, it could cause trouble for him at home.
The quake hit hard in two government-controlled areas and important to him: Aleppo, where Syrian government forces won a bloody victory over rebels in 2016, and Latakia, on Earth Zhong Hai, home and political center of the Assad dynasty.
Just last summer, al-Assad was photographed walking the streets of Aleppo with his wife and three children – a calculated show of force intended to signal to the Syrian people. that he could rebuild the place that was bombed.
Mr. al-Assad and his wife returned to Aleppo last week, touring hospitals caring for earthquake survivors and shaking hands with Russian rescuers. Surname also visited Latakia.
With as many as 5.3 million Syrians lost their homes by the earthquake, according to the United Nations, the president is struggling to deal with public anger over the government’s bland response to the disaster – and doubts that what aid is coming can largely be diverted by corruption.
Moein Ali, an activist critical of the government, criticized: “I have children who need clothes, people who need food. in an online video, accusing the provincial government of diverting valuable aid. “Shall we give you stolen donations? It’s a funny story.”
The video led Syrian security to detain Moein for several hours, other activists said, until public outcry led to his release.
More than ever, al-Assad needs to show the Syrian people that he can rule with more than just violence, Mr. Lund said.
“Syrian society is exhausted. Its stability was threatened even before the earthquake, and now people are desperate,” he said. That doesn’t necessarily indicate regime change, he added.
“But it could get messy for Assad in a way that makes him uncomfortable.”
Hwaida Saad Contribution reports from Beirut, Lebanon.
