Dow Jones futures open Monday night, along with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures. Tesla (TSLA) and Chinese electric vehicle makers such as Nio, Li Auto and BYD will report year-end and 2022 deliveries during the New Year holiday weekend.
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Investors will be looking for a brighter stock market in 2023 after a year of “getting away,” especially for growth. The Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq all posted their biggest annual declines in 14 years. Efforts to recover the stock market are underway, but there is a long way to go to prove itself.
The Dow Jones fell below its 50-day moving average on Friday. The S&P 500 and especially the Nasdaq have some distance to go to their 50-day line, with several other key resistance areas along the way.
C Corporation (CELH), Deere (DE), BioMarin Pharmaceuticals (BMRN), ExxonMobil (XOM) and space (MEDP) is the five stocks near the buy point. It’s a diverse list, reflecting areas that could lead the market in the new year.
DE stock and Medspace are on IBD Rankings. Celsius stock, MEDP stock going up IBD 50. Deere and BMRN stocks are on the rise IBD Large Hat 20.
Deere is Friday IBD shares of the day.
But whether or not these stocks perform depends on the market trending higher. Right now it is not. Investors should continue to be very cautious.
The video embedded in the article has an in-depth discussion of recent market action and discusses what investors should do when the 2023 stock market kicks in. The video also analyzes stocks CELH, Deere and BioMarin.
China EV Delivery
Nio (NIO), Automobiles (LIFE) and XPeng (XPEV) is ready to report in December, Q4 and full year electric car delivery on Sunday, January 1. Li Auto on Friday said December hybrid SUV deliveries will reach 20,000 units, breaking November’s 15,034 record, Nio recently lowered its delivery guidance. Q4, citing Covid-related issues. The guidance implies December deliveries of 14,263-15,263 EVs, which will be slightly higher than November’s record 14,178. Xpeng will see deliveries pick up after several months of monthly declines, but product flow Its model products are in trouble.
BYD will likely report December sales on January 3, before the US market opens on Tuesday. The electric vehicle and battery giant recently announced that worker infections have reduced production by at least 2,000 vehicles per day. BYD recently said full-year deliveries of all-electric BEVs and plug-in hybrids will be around 1.88 million units. That means December deliveries are around 247,000-250,000, which would still be a record.
Nio, Li Auto, Xpeng, and BYD shares all had a tough 2022, like other electric vehicle makers and growth stocks in general. They all bottomed out in October or early November, but have fallen back in recent weeks.
Tesla vs. BYD: Which EV giant to buy?
Delivery Tesla EV
Tesla is expected to release fourth-quarter electric vehicle production and delivery figures on January 2. Analysts expect fourth-quarter Tesla electric vehicle deliveries to be 418,000, despite the uptick. consensus has fallen in recent days as China continues to weaken. Tesla offers great year-end deals, especially in China and the US, to boost sales. That didn’t give a big boost in China, but seems to have freed up inventories in the US
In 2023, Tesla will benefit from new US tax credits of up to $7,500, though year-end incentives are $7,500 for Model 3 or Model Y – with Model vehicles S and X added on December 30th – may have exploited some of that need. A $55,000 price cap on most Model Y vehicles could limit Tesla’s increase in EV credit.
Meanwhile, China is ending subsidies for electric vehicles. Coupled with a massive Covid wave, that could reduce sales for electric vehicle makers there, including Tesla. Tesla may need new significant price cuts in China, where competition continues to heat up from BYD, Nio, Li Auto, Xpeng and others.
In Europe, several countries are cutting or ending electric vehicle subsidies, creating another headwind for Tesla as the backlog of jobs there dwindles.
Tesla stock is down 65% in 2022, its worst annual drop to date. Shares fell 37% in December to their lowest level since September 2022. The EV giant recovered from midweek bear market lows to end the week almost unchanged. TSLA stock volume has been very high over the past few weeks.
Dow Jones Futures Today
Dow Jones futures open at 6 p.m. ET on Monday, along with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures.
The US stock and bond markets will be closed on Monday, January 2, for the New Year.
On Tuesday, investors will receive the December ISM manufacturing index. On Friday, the December jobs report is widely released as the Federal Reserve looks for signs of the jobs market. is weakening.
Remember that action overnight in future index and other places that don’t necessarily translate into actual transactions the next time stock market meeting.
Join IBD experts as they analyze stocks that could act in the stock market rally on IBD Live
Stock market 2022 ends
The stock market fell into a correction on Wednesday, but a new recovery attempt began on Thursday. The major indexes slipped on Friday, ending the week slightly negative.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.2% last week stock market trading. The S&P 500 index fell 0.1%. The Nasdaq composite fell 0.3%. The Russell 2000 Small Cap Index lost a small fraction.
For the full year, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 8.8%, the S&P 500 fell 19.4% and the Nasdaq fell 33.1%. It was their worst annual performance since 2008.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note jumped 13 basis points last week to 3.88% after surging 27 basis points last week. The 10-year yield ends 2021 at 1.51%.
U.S. crude futures rose 0.9 percent to $80.26 a barrel last week, the third consecutive weekly gain. Crude oil prices are up 6.7% for the year, but have ended well off peaks above $130 a barrel.
ETFs
Among the growth ETFs, the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) decreased by 0.3%. VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF (SMH) increased by 1%.
Reflecting more speculative stocks, the ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) rose 0.9 percent last week, but after hitting a new five-year low on Wednesday. ARK Genomics ETF (ARKG) decreased by 0.7%. TSLA stock is the primary holding in Ark Invest ETFs. Cathie Wood’s Ark also owns a small position in BYD stock.
SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF (XME) fell 1.9%% last week. US X Global Infrastructure Development ETF (PAY THE ROAD RED) lost 1.2%. US Global Jets ETF (jet plane) decreased by 0.9%. SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB) decreased by 0.8%. Energy Select SPDR ETF (XLE) rose 0.5% and the Financial Select SPDR ETF (XLF) increased by 0.7%. SPDR Foundation for healthcare sector (XLV) decreased by 0.2%.
The five best Chinese stocks to watch right now
Stock market 2023: 5 notable stocks
BioMarin stock fell 0.8% to 103.49 last week, falling back in the second half of December but still holding support around the 21-day line. A strong rise from current levels could yield a positive entry. But investors may want to wait for BMRN stock to form a new base or find support at the 10-week line. BioMarin’s earnings are expected to triple by 2023.
Deere stock fell 1.9% to 428.76 in the past week, returning to its 10-week moving average, with flat sole now on a weekly chart. Official buy points is 448.50. Investors could use the 10-week line bounce as an early entry for DE stock, perhaps after recapturing the 21-day line.
CELH stock has fallen from its December record high, sliding for the past four weeks, but recovered from its 50-day moving average on Friday, to close at 104.04. Celsius stock could offer an early entry if it crosses the 21-day line definitively, with a move above the December 27 high of 109.31 as a particular trigger.
XOM stock rose 1.5% last week to 110.30, slightly above its rising 50-day moving average. A move above the December 27 high of 110.47 will provide an early entry. Exxon stock has a flat base with a buy point of 114.76, according to MarketSmith Analysis.
MEDP stock rallied modestly on Thursday from its 50-day moving average, breaking above a downtrend line during a recent consolidation. That yields an entry early in its merge. On Friday, with the major indexes turning lower, Medspace stock fell back to its 50-day high, but closed well.
Medspace’s move could still work, but it just shows how hard the stock is to move forward.
Stock market analysis
The stock market fell slightly last week, even with a strong rebound on Thursday, ending a rough year.
The major indexes have bounced off their October bear market lows but are well below their December highs. A technical recovery attempt is underway as the stock market falls this year. 2023 kicks in, but it needs a the next day to confirm a new uptrend.
Even then, the market will face some technical hurdles, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq and Russell 2000 all below their 50-day and 200-day lines. The Dow Jones, the relative leader in recent months, has dipped below the 50-day line through the end of 2022 but above the 200-day line.
Until there is clarity on the Fed rate end game and the economy, the market could swing into a volatile, sideways action.
The December jobs report on Friday, January 6th, will be important. A significant slowdown in hiring and wage growth should reinforce expectations that the Fed’s rate hikes will slow further and raise hopes that peak rates are near. But strong or accelerated job and wage growth is likely to trigger a massive sell-off.
Market Timing with IBD’s ETF Market Strategy
What to do now
On IBD Live at the end of the year on Friday, Charles Harris, portfolio manager at O’Neil Global Advisors said this is a “stay away” market in 2022. There will be great opportunities ahead, including companies and innovation trends, but not yet.
Several stocks are doing well, including Deere, BioMarin, and Medspace. The problem is that over the past few months, a lot of stocks have been set up, but those setups often don’t work.
But investors should stay engaged and ready to act. If there is a confirmed rally in early 2023, many stocks have the potential to quickly rallie or rally.
So work on your watchlist but enjoy the long weekend. Come back to the new year refreshed, waiting for the next bull market.
Read Big picture every day to stay in sync with market trends and top stocks and sectors.
Please follow Ed Carson on Twitter at @IBD_ECarson for stock market updates and more.
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