September was a historically difficult month for Apple stock
September is typically a tough month for Apple — and it’s uncertain whether this year will be any different. Apple is expected to announce new iPhone and Apple Watch models on September 9 at a press event at its headquarters in Cupertino, California. The tech giant typically announces these new models at fall launches ahead of the holiday shopping season. Apple’s stock tends to move higher as investor excitement builds ahead of its product announcements, according to a FactSet analysis. But the stock’s lowest average returns occur in the month of the launch. Apple shares have fallen 3.5% on average in September over the past 10 years. That drop comes after an average gain of 6.5% in July and 4.8% in August, the analysis found. Apple rose 3.1% in August and is up nearly 19% this year. Morgan Stanley analysts say Apple’s announcement this year could lead to a better-than-historic stock performance. That’s partly because the upcoming event — which is likely to focus on integrating Apple Intelligence into the iPhone 16 — could spur demand for the company’s highly anticipated AI-related advancements. “The iPhone launch has traditionally been a news-selling event, with Apple underperforming the market slightly on the day of the iPhone launch, and then only slightly outperforming the market in the three months following the event,” analyst Erik Woodring wrote in a note on Thursday. “We don’t necessarily expect the market to behave differently when Apple introduces the iPhone 16 on September 9, but we do see the potential for Apple to outperform seasonally over history later in the year as the introduction of the iPhone 16 and Apple Intelligence helps unleash pent-up demand,” he added. Woodring said Apple’s stock has historically outperformed when the company’s product replacement cycle shortens. Indeed, he forecasts a contraction in the iPhone replacement cycle in fiscal 2026. Apple remains a “top pick” for Morgan Stanley, and Woodring said he remains bullish on the tech company’s chances of riding a multiyear product refresh cycle and accelerating iPhone replacement cycles. He rates the stock overweight with a $273 price target, suggesting 19.2% upside potential from Friday’s close. UBS analyst David Vogt, on the other hand, has a neutral rating on the stock with a $190 price target, suggesting the stock could fall 17% over the next year. August typically sees consumers buying the lowest-end iPhone models, he said in a note on Tuesday, adding that there is “increased risk around the September launch.” Apple’s iPhones accounted for about 46% of the company’s total sales in its fiscal third quarter. “If August iPhone sales reach ~14 million, a ~3% decline [month-over-month]“Consistent with recent seasonality, without the channel, September 24th sales would have to be 22.6 million to hit our estimate, up ~20% YoY, a high target in our view given that Apple Intelligence is in beta and not yet available in Europe,” the analyst said.
