An adjacent stretch of land in eastern India, spanning UP, Bihar, Jharkhand and the southern part of West Bengal, is reeling from a severe lack of rain. Shortages range from 48% to 59% in western UP, Bihar, Jharkhand and south Bengal. In the UP east, the shortfall is 72%, according to IMD data on the southwest monsoon covering June 1 to July 20.
This will certainly have a negative impact on rice production this year as West Bengal and UP are the states with the largest rice production in India.
However, at the national level, rainfall shortages in these states may not have a significant impact on food security. India’s food security is supported by the PDS network with a population of around 800 million. The supply of rice and wheat in the PDS is secured by crop procurement activities carried out by Food Corporation of India and various state government agencies.
In the case of rice, Punjab, Telangana, Chhattisgarh and Odisha contributed the most to the procurement. Between these states, about 55% of paddy purchases are covered and they have recorded enough rainfall to date. Due to low rainfall in important rice-growing regions, this year’s crop area is likely to be lower. However, that may not become a new challenge for the Reserve Bank of India, which is trying to control retail inflation that has breached the statutory tolerance level.
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