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Russia’s Retreat in Ukraine Pokes Holes in Putin’s Projection of Force


This weekend’s movement of Russian forces by Ukraine is creating a new kind of political challenge for President Vladimir V. Putin: It diminishes the image of competence and strength with which he worked. for two decades to build.

On Sunday, Russian troops continued to withdraw from positions in northeastern Ukraine that they had occupied for months. State TV news reports called the withdrawal a carefully planned “regrouping operation”, praising the heroism and professionalism of the Russian military.

But the upbeat message did not alleviate the anger of the war’s supporters over the retreat and the Kremlin’s handling of it. And that hardly obscures the bondage Putin now holds, presiding over a six-month war against an increasingly fit enemy and a Russian people seemingly unprepared for the possible sacrifices. may occur when the conflict escalates.

“Strength is the only source of Putin’s legitimacy,” said Abbas Gallyamov, Putin’s speechwriter and now a political consultant living in Israel. “And in a situation where he has no power left, his legitimacy will start to drop to zero.”

As Ukraine took advantage on Sunday, seizing towns and territory, Putin escalated the brutality of his campaign, giving in to pro-war voices on Russian television and online. society. Rocket attacks on infrastructure across eastern and central Ukraine have plunged many parts of the country into darkness.

But it remains unclear how far Russia – with its cyber, chemical and nuclear arsenal – may be willing to stem Ukraine’s rise, even as the scale of the battlefield becomes increasingly apparent and more evidence of anarchy within Russia’s ruling class.

Ramzan Kadyrov, the powerful leader of the Chechen region in southern Russia who sent thousands of his troops to Ukraine, accused the Russian military of making “mistakes” and failing to explain to the public the withdrawal. . Sergei Mironov, leader of a pro-Putin party in Parliament, criticized the authorities celebrating Moscow’s annual City Day celebrations this weekend, posting on Twitter: “There can’t be and shouldn’t be. Our people are dying today, and we are pretending. that nothing is happening! “

“Due to some mistakes that we are not aware of, control over political processes is being lost,” said a pro-Kremlin analyst who often appears on state television, Sergei Markov. know on social media. “I assure you that this confusion will not last. But right now, it’s a mess.”

The fundamental problem, analysts say, is that Putin’s tendency to mislead people is catching up with him. The reality of Russia’s defeat is creating holes in the Kremlin’s message that the Russian Army is invincible, Ukraine is rife with corruption and cowardice and Putin is a brilliant geopolitical strategist. . Just last Wednesday Mr. Putin declared that Russia “lost nothing” as a result of the war, an assertion that contradicts Western estimates of tens of thousands of Russian casualties.

For now, war supporters have mostly directed their anger over this weekend’s defeats at Moscow officials or the military leadership. But an early sign that the frustration could damage Mr Putin’s credibility appeared on the social network Telegram after Moscow launched a monumental fireworks display on Saturday night to mark the anniversary. The city’s 875th anniversary – a slap in the face to the Russian military, is, some say, perhaps the most humiliating day for Russia since the invasion began on 24 February.

“We will not support this government in the 2024 election,” said the administrator of a pro-war Telegram account with more than 400,000 followers. speak, referring to Russia’s next presidential election. “It’s a long time coming, but this is the last drop.

Discontent is evident even in Moscow, a city whose authorities have worked to shield from the costs of war.

As the people of Moscow celebrated the city’s birthday this weekend with concerts and parties, Vladislav, a taxi driver who moved to a city near Moscow from the Krasnoyarsk region in Siberia looked at all the flags and the stage celebrates with a bit of disdain. He said his 34-year-old cousin was killed two weeks ago near Donetsk in Ukraine’s Donbas region, after being drafted into pro-Russian forces.

“People drink late into the night here,” he complained Sunday morning after a weekend of fun in the city. “Nobody cares what’s going on ahead.”

Tatiana Stanovaya, a Russian political analyst, says that the Kremlin’s decision to reduce the intensity and scale of the war in Ukraine has created parallel worlds: on the one hand, the reality of the largest land war Europe for generations and on the one hand the business atmosphere commonly found in Moscow. on the other hand.

The strategy of describing the war as a “special military operation” that does not affect the daily lives of most Russians, she said, is based on the expectation that Russia will quickly win. But with the back-and-forth, the fact that things don’t go according to plan becomes increasingly difficult to hide.

“In principle, the Kremlin bases its entire policy on the idea that there can be no failure,” she said. “They were unprepared for the fact that there could be a collision with this second parallel world.”

Sunday night there were signs that the Kremlin was responding to criticism that it was not being honest with the public about the extent of its recent failures. In the main weekly news program on state television, presenter Dmitri Kiselyov described last week as “probably one of the most difficult” since the beginning of the war.

“Under the onslaught of superior enemy forces, allied forces were forced to leave the previously liberated settlements,” Kiselyov said, referring to “the alliance,” Kiselyov said. ” with Kremlin-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine.

It is a rare televised acknowledgment of what pro-Russian military bloggers have been warning about for weeks. With the arrival of the Kremlin determined to avoid a nationwide draft To increase the rank of its army, Russian forces outnumbered the Ukrainians in many places on the front lines.

There are also signs that the Kremlin may be trying to escalate its military campaign, as supporters of the war have long said. The city’s mayor said a Russian attack knocked out electricity and water on Sunday evening in much of the city of Kharkiv, northeast of the city, calling the attack an act of “revenge”.

Presenter Vladimir Solovyov said on Sunday’s state TV talk show: “It looks like it’s time to get tough,” presenter Vladimir Solovyov said on the TV talk show. state on Sunday, complaining that Russia was not doing enough to disrupt Ukraine’s military and fuel supply lines. “It’s time to get tough.”

Of course, how badly this weekend’s battlefield failures have damaged Mr. Putin politically will, of course, depend on his ability to reverse them, while continuing to shelter in place. save the Russians from the consequences of Western sanctions. This week, Putin is expected to meet President Xi Jinping of China at a regional summit in Uzbekistan, seeking to expand a relationship vital to Russia as it pursues economic partners. economy outside the West.

Mr. Gallyamov, who wrote the speech previously, said that the struggles in Ukraine could cause elites around the Russian President to push for a successor to be appointed.

“If they continue to destroy the Russian army as actively as it is,” Gallamov said of Ukrainian forces, “all this could accelerate even faster.”

Valerie Hopkins contributed reporting from Moscow and Ivan Nechepurenko from Tbilisi, Georgia.



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