WASHINGTON – Two days after national security adviser Jake Sullivan warned his Chinese counterpart of dire consequences if Beijing helped Russia wage its war against Ukraine, what exactly it might be kept secret secret.
“We’re going to have a direct conversation with China and the Chinese leadership, not through the media,” White House press secretary Jen Psaki told reporters on Tuesday.
Psaki said that Sullivan was “very direct about the consequences” during Monday’s meeting in Rome with China’s top foreign policy official, Yang Jiechi.
“But in terms of any potential impacts or consequences, we will be channeling those effects through private diplomatic channels at this time,” Psaki said.
As Russia’s invasion of Ukraine looms in its fourth week, concerns about how Western allies will react if China or Chinese companies try to help Moscow evade the orders. Sanctions imposed by the US, UK and Europe have added a new level of uncertainty to already reeling global markets. the collapse of the Russian economy.
That uncertainty is compounded by the fresh memory of what happened the last time the White House issued vague warnings of the consequences, in the lead up to the Russian invasion.
On February 20, four days before Russian troops entered Ukraine, Psaki released a statement saying the US was “ready to impose serious and swift consequences” if Russia implemented clear plans. mine.
At the time, few analysts believed that the United States and Europe could actually reach a consensus on the most severe sanctions under consideration – like freezing Russia’s central bank reserves. But they did, catching both Moscow and Wall Street off guard.
When it comes to China, no one wants to make the same mistake again.
Moscow is said to have asked Beijing for military and economic support to wage the war against Ukraine, although both governments have publicly denied it.
But China has little interest in getting embroiled in an economic war between Moscow and the rest of the developed world.
“China is not a party to the crisis, nor does it want sanctions to affect China,” Foreign Minister Wang Yi said in a phone call Monday with the Spanish foreign minister, Jose Manuel Albares.
However, Wang still asserted that “China has the right to protect its legitimate rights and interests”, according to an official notice of the call from Beijing.
Over the past week, it has become increasingly clear that the Kremlin sees Beijing as an economic lifeline.
Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said on Sunday that “his country’s economic partnership with China will still allow us to maintain the cooperation we have achieved… but also strengthen it.” in an environment where Western markets are closed” to Russian exports.
This “increased” cooperation from China can take many different forms. Some of them would be in public violation of sanctions against Russia, prompting an automatic US response. However, experts say other actions Beijing might take would be technically legal, forcing the US to rely more heavily on soft power tactics against it.
Excessive violations could include helping Russia bypass US export controls on high-tech equipment by buying American products and then selling them to Moscow.
However, that move would be very risky for businesses. The sanctions are specifically written to apply not only to American companies but also to any company in the world that uses American software or components, including many in China.
Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo recently explained the consequences for a major Chinese semiconductor company if the US learned it sold chips to Russia in violation of US export controls.
“We can basically close the door [the company] because we prevent them from using our devices and software” Raimondo said in an interview with The New York Times on March 8.
Raimondo’s example highlights how the US can use its economic power to make a decision by any company to help Russia evade sanctions, which is essentially a deadly decision.
“Most large institutions in China are not willing to take the risk of violating U.S. sanctions, and therefore, any sanctions,” said Martin Chorzempa, a researcher at Peterson. can also be done by smaller organizations who have less to lose.” Institute of International Economics.
“Overall, China looks like it will complain but still comply,” Mr told Washington Posts.
Alexander Gabuev, a senior fellow for Russia and president of the Carnegie Moscow Center think tank, told CNBC on Monday that another avenue for cooperation between Russia and China is for Beijing to buy Russian oil and gas cheaply. .
“There will be no official violation of US and EU sanctions, but it will be an important relief for the regime” in Russia, Gabuev said.
That kind of Sino-Russian cooperation requires a different response from the United States, while also working with European allies to underscore the long-term risks to China’s credibility on the world stage.
“[Russian President] Robert Daly, Director of the Kissinger Institute on China and America, said: Vladimir Putin is … the bad guy in the eyes of the world.
“Russia, Cuba, North Korea, Venezuela, Iran – this is not really the international club most Chinese aspire to be a part of,” Daly said on CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” on Tuesday.
As civilian casualties in Ukraine and TVs around the world broadcast images of bombed neighborhoods and brave Ukrainian resistance fighters, “situations are pushing China further in that direction.” , Mr. Daly said.
But that doesn’t mean the country will break with its longtime ally. Instead, Beijing can be said to be “religious about compliance” with US and EU sanctions but will do “everything it can” to help Moscow, Gabuev said.
— Eustance Huang and Weizhen Tan of CNBC contributed reporting.
