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According to satellite image analysis and Ukrainian intelligence assessments, Russia appears to be withdrawing some forces stationed in Syria after the sudden collapse of the Bashar al-Assad regime.
Images taken by Maxar and Planet Labs show an increase in ground vehicles at Hmeimim air base, the arrival of several large transport aircraft and the dismantling of helicopters and air defenses. Russia – all the factors align with forces gathering there for departure.
A senior Ukrainian official agreed that it appeared Moscow had taken a significant amount of equipment from the country. However, it is unclear whether this operation is a partial or full withdrawal initiation.
“This withdrawal could signal a complete Russian withdrawal from Syria, but it is too early to tell,” said Michael Kofman, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
Russia’s presence across Syria is a legacy of its intervention in Syria Syrian Civil War since 2015 when it deployed thousands of troops and air support to support Assad’s fight against rebels.
The Kremlin said its future in the country would depend on negotiations with the new government in Damascus after Assad fled a blitzkrieg by rebels on Sunday. He has now been granted asylum in Moscow.
Loss of the air base in Hmeimim – and RussiaRussia’s naval bases at Tartus – will be a strategic problem for Moscow, as they are used as a logistics hub for its operations in the Mediterranean as well as its operations on throughout Africa.
Mikhail Bogdanov, Russia’s deputy foreign minister, said on Thursday that Moscow was holding “constructive” talks with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, the rebel group leading the offensive, and that it hoped to maintain military presence in the area.
“The bases are there at the request of the Syrian authorities with the goal of fighting terrorists and Isis,” Bogdanov said, according to Interfax. “I think everyone agrees that the war against terrorism and what remains of ISIS is not over.”
“It requires collective efforts, and our presence and base in Hmeimim play an important role in the context of the broader struggle against global terrorism,” he added. ”.
Analysts say Russia could provide the new Syrian government with money, energy supplies, gold and diamonds that it is exploiting from Africa, as well as the possibility of a partnership. broader politics. A former senior Russian official told the Financial Times that Russia is approaching HTS with “friendship and love.”
Hmeimim’s Maxar images captured two An-124 aircraft on the airport runway. The An-124 is the world’s largest heavy transport aircraft, capable of carrying about 150 tons of cargo.
Three Il-76 transport planes, Russian heavy lifts, were also on the ground. Three An-32s and an An-72, smaller transport models, also appear in the photos.
Maxar analysts noted that a Ka-52 attack helicopter “is being dismantled and possibly prepared for transport”. They also identified elements of the S-400 air defense unit “preparing to depart from the previous deployment location at the air base.”
Blogs supporting the Kremlin’s war with Ukraine also posted footage on Telegram showing a large Russian military convoy heading towards the base in Hmeimim and another driving towards Tartus. The troops halted on the side of the road included trucks flying the Russian flag as well as armored vehicles carrying troops and other equipment.
The General Directorate of Military Intelligence of Ukraine, GUR, said in a statement that “the remnants of the Russian army from the most remote regions of Syria are being withdrawn to naval and air bases in Tartus and Hmeimim.” .
“There are 4-5 military transport aircraft flying between Hmeimim and Russian airports every day,” GUR said.
drones footage of the base A photo taken by Syrian Television this week shows the extent of Russia’s permanent presence at Hmeimim: fighter jets and bombers are still stored in hangars at the base, as are fly helicopter.
At the naval base in Tartus, two Russian destroyers stationed at the port are currently waiting outside the base. However, the withdrawal of troops by sea will be slower. GUR said two Russian ships previously used for military logistics were heading from the Baltic towards the port.
