Russia and the US compete for advantage in the Ukraine war before Trump’s return

Within days, US President Joe Biden’s administration and Russia made separate – but important – moves to influence the outcome of the war in Ukraine, two months before Donald Trump returned to the White House.

There is a sense that Moscow is maximizing its interests and that Biden abandoned long-standing red lines before Trump sought to implement a 24-hour declaration to end the war.

Ukraine acted on Biden’s decision to allow Kyiv to fire its first long-range ATACMS missile deep into Russian territory. As Kyiv struggles to hold on to its territory in the east, Biden has also promised to send anti-personnel mines.

What made Biden change his stance seemed to be the appearance of thousands of North Koreans deployed to the front lines, which the US considered a “major escalation”.

However, Russian President Vladimir Putin has increased tensions further by relaxing the conditions for using Russia’s nuclear weapons. Moscow claims it “effectively eliminates” defeat on the battlefield.

One Russian commentator suggested that Putin may see the current situation as an “in-between” moment that makes him feel like he has the upper hand in Ukraine.

Earlier this week, Russia launched its largest air attack on Ukraine in nearly three months. Amid fears of a new strike on Wednesday, several Western embassies closed.

“It’s all connected,” said Mykhaylo Samus, head of the New Geopolitical Research Network in Ukraine. He argued that Russia had been stockpiling hundreds of Iskander and Kinzhal missiles for weeks to enable them to carry out attacks and thus send a psychological message ahead of the transition of power in Washington DC.

Ukraine’s capital Kyiv may have been spared on Wednesday, but the message has gotten through.

“Everything is to prepare for a strong position in negotiations with Trump, to understand that Russia will not compromise and everything depends on [Ukraine’s President Volodymyr] Zelensky.”

Jade McGlynn, from the department of war studies at King’s College London, agrees: “It’s clear Trump is making an effort to maximize their position.” She highly doubts that a deal can be reached with Vladimir Putin – and his ultimate aim is to conquer Russia’s southern neighbor.

Ukraine marked 1,000 days since Russia’s full-scale invasion on Tuesday, with Russian forces launching relentless attacks to capture key centers in eastern Ukraine.

Tatiana Stanovaya of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center said the mood in Moscow seemed like it was only a matter of time before Ukraine was in their hands.

From January, however, Putin will have to consider other factors, she said: “He will have to face the fact that Trump is now responsible for this situation. If Putin escalates, it could worsen the chances of reaching a deal. He will have to be more flexible, more open to different options.”

Biden’s decision to allow Kyiv to start firing ATACMS into Russian territory was clearly intended to help Kyiv, but Trump’s entourage felt it too.

Although Trump has not spoken out so far, his pick for National Security Advisor, Mike Waltz, has spoken of “another escalation and no one knows where this is going.”

He didn’t go as far as some of Trump’s team. Donald Trump Jr. complained that Biden was trying to “cause World War III” to happen before his father could return to the White House.

“There is only one president at a time,” State Department spokesman Matthew Miller said. When the next president takes office, he can make his own decisions.”

Some Republicans supported Biden’s move, though Sen. Lindsay Graham said he should have done it “to help Ukraine and he’s playing politics with it.”

Russia’s response may or may not be an empty threat.

Under the revised nuclear doctrine, Moscow will now be able to use nuclear weapons against non-nuclear states backed by nuclear powers and if it also comes under “large-scale” air attack ”.

Alexander Ermkov from the Russian Council of International Affairs said the change was not so much an operational guide to using nuclear weapons as “primarily it serves as a statement to potential adversaries.” potential, outlining scenarios in which such measures could be considered”.

Then another message from Putin to the West.

Tatiana Stanovaya believes that it was not because he wanted to start World War III, but because “he believed he had to scare the Western elite to show that they were playing with fire.”

What will happen after January is anyone’s guess.

Kremlin insiders have begun to brief them on their minimum demands for any Trump initiative to end the war, and Volodymyr Zelensky has also begun to make his case clear. .

When asked in a US television interview what would happen to Ukraine if Washington cut military aid, he clarified: “If they cut, I think we will lose. Of course, Either way, we will stay and we will fight. We have production, but it is not enough to prevail.”

Putin insisted Ukraine would have to remain neutral to maintain any relationship, even though joining both NATO and the European Union is now part of Ukraine’s constitution.

Reuters news agency on Wednesday quoted Russian officials as saying that Putin may be willing to withdraw troops from relatively small territories but nothing larger.

Zelensky on Tuesday presented his 10-point “resilience plan” to parliament and a message of defiance resonated most in the Verkhovna Rada.

“Perhaps Ukraine will have to outlive someone in Moscow to achieve all its goals… to fully restore Ukraine’s integrity.”

In other words, Russia will one day be without Putin, but Ukraine will go nowhere.

For Ukrainians, the wait could take years, Mykhaylo Samus said, but they would never agree to give up Crimea or any other territory under Russian occupation.

He believes the best thing Zelensky could be prepared to sign would be a ceasefire without commitments. Anything else will lead to internal strife as many see it as a betrayal.

Before any negotiations, Mykola Bielieskov of the Institute for National Strategic Studies in Kyiv believes it is important to prevent any major Russian breakthrough in the east.

“For us it’s just localization [Russian] progress… use Atacms, anti-personnel mines or whatever. Because if the Russians succeed, they will try to dictate terms.”

Speaking to the BBC from Kharkiv, Jade McGlynn said few Ukrainians believed Trump could reach any kind of lasting peace agreement.

She said any form of settlement that leaves Ukraine in a much worse situation would lead to political chaos.

“Europe needs to step up and finally we know that the Scandinavians, the Baltics and Poland are not enough,” she said.