World

Russia Agrees to Let Ukraine Ship Grain, Easing World Food Shortage


BRUSSELS – After three months of negotiations that often seem over, Russia and Ukraine signed an agreement on Friday to free more than 20 million tons of grain trapped in Ukraine’s blockaded Black Sea ports, a deal has global implications in reducing high food prices and easing shortages and a growing hunger crisis.

Senior UN officials say the first shipments leaving Odesa and neighboring ports are just weeks away and could quickly bring five million tonnes of Ukrainian food to the world market each month, freeing up storage space for fresh Ukrainian harvests. The difference can be felt most clearly in the drought-stricken Horn of Africa, which relies heavily on grain from Ukraine and Russia.

The breakthrough, with the help of the United Nations and Turkey, is the most significant compromise between the warring nations since Russia invaded Ukraine in February, but it doesn’t bring them any closer to peace. . While government ministers signed the agreement in an ornate Istanbul room, with the flags of their countries lined up, a few hundred miles away their armies continued to kill and kill. each other.

“This agreement is not easy,” António Guterres, United Nations Secretary-General, said at the signing ceremony, calling the agreement a “lighthouse in the Black Sea.”

But Stephen E. Flynn, founding director of the Global Resilience Institute at Northeastern University, cautions that it is difficult to get food quickly to where it is needed most. The mechanism for transporting grain across the Black Sea in wartime conditions with little or no trust between the warring parties is extremely complex.

“It’s not going to move quickly,” he said.

It remains to be seen whether the deal will work as planned. With each side deeply suspicious of the other, there are plenty of opportunities for the deal to fall apart.

In Istanbul, Russian Defense Minister Sergei K. Shoigu repeated Russia’s commitment not to use grain exports from Ukraine to military advantage. “We have made this commitment,” he said.

With fighting still raging in eastern and southern Ukraine, the White House on Friday announced $270 million in weapons and other aid to Ukraine, bringing the total since the war began to about seven billion USD. The latest batch includes ammunition and missile launchers for HIMARS, as well as ammunition for artillery and drones.

President Vladimir Putin’s attack on Ukraine and Western sanctions on Russia have had economic consequences around the world, hampering trade, contributing to inflation, threatening recession and bull market, especially for energy.

But Russia’s blockade of Odesa and other ports has had some of the worst consequences globally, undermining a global food distribution network already strained by poor harvests, droughts, inter-connected disruptions, and more. pandemic and climate change. Western officials accuse Mr. Putin of using the famine as leverage to get sanctions relief.

Ukraine is one of the world’s bread-producing nations, a leading exporter of wheat, barley, corn and sunflower, but its shipments plummeted after the war began. Exports from Russia, another major supplier, also fell.

Food prices on the world market skyrocketed – wheat prices in May were about 50% higher than in February. Prices have fallen back to pre-war levels, but those levels remain high, after steadily rising in the year and a half before the invasion, and stockpiles low because of the coronavirus pandemic. United Nations warning of potential famine and political instability.

Shashwat Saraf, East Africa Emergency Director of the International Rescue Committee, said: “The lifting of these lockdown orders will help alleviate the extreme hunger that over 18 million people in East Africa are facing, 3 million people are facing catastrophic hunger. statement.

The agreement reached in Istanbul sets out the complicated logistics of exporting Ukraine’s grain through Turkey, and provides UN guarantees to help Russia export its own grain and fertilizer. surname.

Kyiv and Moscow agreed very little during the war; Peace talks have gone nowhere, and have been set aside. The two sides have carried out a number of prisoner exchanges and have sometimes agreed on humanitarian evacuations from devastated cities, though always after false starts and bad accusations. together.

But Friday’s pact was the first time that representatives of the warring countries had publicly signed an agreement.

“It’s a big step forward,” Mr. Flynn said, noting the Turks’ “elegant approach.”

The White House welcomed the deal, but with some skepticism. John Kirby, a spokesman for the National Security Council, said “success will depend on Russia sticking to this agreement and actually delivering on its commitments.

“Russia’s words are never good enough on their faces, and the United States is ‘watching very closely’,” he added.

Ukraine and other European countries have assembled new transport networks using trains, trucks and river barges, bringing Ukraine’s food exports to nearly 3 million tons monthly – still far below with pre-war levels, but much more than at the beginning of the war. Even with the resumption of sea shipments, it could take up to four months to clear the grain backlog.

Officials said the Istanbul deal would expire in 120 days, but could be extended on a rolling basis.

It includes a clear commitment that the civilian ships involved, as well as the port facilities used for the operations, will not be attacked, but that can be a lasting guarantee and the vessels Operation in a war zone may still be at risk.

There will be no broader maritime ceasefire, and a senior UN official says the Russians have not committed to attacking parts of Ukrainian ports that are not used directly for exports. cereal.

Under the terms of the agreement, Ukrainian captains will direct grain ships leaving Odesa and the neighboring ports of Chernomorsk and Yuzhne through safe passages mapped by the Ukrainian Navy, to avoid landmines that are not mines. Ukraine has placed to thwart Russia’s fearsome amphibious assault.

UN officials said a joint command center with Russian, Ukrainian, Turkish and UN officials will be established in Istanbul on Saturday. Teams from all three countries and the United Nations will jointly inspect the ships at Turkish ports, both when they arrive from Ukraine and when they depart, mainly to ensure that they do not bring weapons back to Ukraine later. when unloading.

Mr. Guterres praised Ukraine, Russia and Turkey for working together to ensure a breakthrough.

“Since the beginning of the war, I have emphasized that there is no solution to the global food crisis without ensuring global access to Ukrainian food products as well as to Ukraine,” he said. Russian food and fertilizers. “Today we have taken important steps towards achieving this goal. But it has been a long road. “

The breakthrough was a coup for Mr. Guterres as well as for Mr. Erdogan, who has positioned himself as a mediator, on good terms with Mr. Putin and President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine.

The deal seemed unlikely just two weeks ago, after a series of tense meetings, with the two sides questioning each other’s motives and blaming each other for the impasse.

An initial proposal called for the removal of mines, which Ukraine opposes, and for an international fleet to escort grain ships. An important step came when Ukraine agreed to let its own captains steer the ships for the first leg of the journey and the idea of ​​a military escort was dropped. That makes it more of a civilian operation, alleviating fears it could trigger a wave of hostilities.

Officials said getting Russia on board took longer. It requires the United Nations to convince private-sector insurance and shipping companies that they can transport Russian food and fertilizer, which are not directly embargoed by Western sanctions. , without being subject to other sanctions.

The final piece of the puzzle came on Thursday, when the European Union announced legally binding explanations that banks, insurance companies and other companies were allowed to participate in grain and fertilizer exports. Russia, and their sanctions do not affect the important Russian port. Novorossiysk on the Black Sea. Senior UN officials consider these guarantees sufficient to persuade the private sector to re-engage in the Russian grain trade.

“Today we have all the prerequisites and all the solutions for this process to begin in the coming days,” said Shoigu, Russia’s defense minister, who signed the agreement in Istanbul. with reporters afterwards.

Global grain markets reacted immediately to the news of the deal. Wheat futures fell more than 5% on Friday, to around $760 a bushel.

Report contributed by Anton Troianovski, Valerie Hopkins, Dan Bilefsky, Joe Rennison and Patricia Cohen.



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