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Putting nuclear weapons to use risks escalation, impossible to control and potentially catastrophic | Diana Magnay | World News


The US president is hardly alone in saying that the risk of a nuclear “Armageddon” is higher now than it has been since the Cuban missile crisis – or as in Russia, the Caribbean crisis.

Anyone who has thought for more than five seconds about Vladimir Putin’s Nuclear Threats with the geopolitical state of the game would conclude so and indeed, it is an important commentary on Russian state television.

And although the Russian president insists that “this is not a scam“is the kind of statement you make when you’re lying. Russia’s nuclear arsenal should be taken seriously. That’s why it’s there.

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Apparently, American officials, which is why they are said to have made tough comments to their Russian counterparts that a nuclear attack is the worst of all possible ideas. possible and that retaliation will be decisive.

At its core, the strength of nuclear weapons lies in their ability to persuade the opposing side to do or not to do something, which is the essence of deterrence.

In fact, putting them to use in any capacity, tactical or strategic, has undetermined benefits and escalation risks that are very likely to be uncontrollable and potentially devastating. disaster for all involved.

At a very basic level, the wind can blow in the direction of Russia, Vladimir Putin would lose friends in China and India, and a conventional retaliatory attack by the West could bring down the Russian infrastructure President Putin needs to keep his country thriving and its people. his side is on his side.

The question is whether Vladimir Putin, who celebrates 70th birthday this Friday, thinking rationally about any of it.

Russia’s nuclear doctrine only authorizes a first nuclear strike if the existence of the state is deemed to be at risk. It’s a high bar. Ukraine attacked targets in illegally annexed Crimea and in the Russian border town of Belgorod.

The Kremlin doesn’t seem to want to create too much of a problem. While this latest round of annexation means Russia can claim these four territories in Eastern Ukraine as its own and therefore any attack by Ukraine is an attack on the state. Russia, but that claim to exist and is the way that Russia has. far is chosen to not travel.

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What are tactical nuclear weapons?

Nor does it appear that Russia has moved to remove any of its nuclear warheads from a central repository and merge payloads with transport vehicles.

So far, its nuclear threats are just that – threats. There’s still a long way to go in signaling and warning before we get to the real Armageddon.

And although Russia may lose ground on the battlefield, it still has other options than to continue attacking Donbas and Kherson.

For example, why hasn’t it destroyed targets in Kyiv since the early days of the war? What about other forms of hybrid warfare (continued) targeting energy infrastructure in Ukraine and beyond? Vladimir Putin is a master of those dark arts. A nuclear attack, one might hope, would be his last weapon.

Read more:
Biden warns world is facing biggest ‘Armageddon’ nuclear threat since Cuban missile crisis

Russia's RS-24 Yars ballistic missile rolls in on Red Square during the Victory Day parade in Moscow, Russia, June 2020. Photo: AP
Picture:
Russia’s RS-24 Yars ballistic missile rolls in on Red Square during the Victory Day parade in Moscow, Russia, June 2020. Photo: AP

Current talk in Russia is increasingly moving towards the Kremlin’s readiness for dialogue. The proposal seems to be – let’s discuss ending this now with Russia claiming a large portion of Eastern Ukraine as its own and there is a threat from tactical nuclear weapons if you no or if NATO troops are involved.

The President of Ukraine is understandably not convinced. Volodymyr Zelenskky wants his country back, whole. He’s not the one thinking about potential upside downs for Vladimir Putin, he’s thinking about winning.

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy poses for a photo after an interview with Reuters, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Kyiv, Ukraine September 16, 2022. REUTERS / Valentyn Ogirenko
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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskky
At least two people were killed after Russian forces shelled the city of Zaporizhzhia in the southeastern part of Ukraine, regional governor Oleksandr Starukh said.
Picture:
The city of Zaporizhzhia in southeastern Ukraine

That’s why the President of the United States is so important.

As Joe Biden put it in comments overheard by reporters, he’s trying to figure out where Putin finds a way out so that he “not only loses face, but also loses significant power in Russia.” “.

The problem is that it is very difficult to determine what that is and by raising the rhetorical points, Vladimir Putin seems to be increasingly receding into a corner. The outlook is very worrisome.

In an interview with Sky News, Russian lawmaker and TV presenter Evgeny Popov asserted that Russia would never make the first strike.

“Using nuclear weapons in the 21st century is a crazy decision. We are not insane and we hope you are not either.”

Let’s hope Vladimir Putin feels the same way.

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