Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s brutal summer ends with his departure

It has been a tough summer for Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida.

A series of scandals involving the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), Mr Kishida’s closest allies within the party and even his family have put his job under threat.

That this comes as the cost of living soars and discontent simmers within the LDP has not helped the embattled leader.

His approval ratings have fallen to record lows. Along the way, a test has emerged – a party leadership contest scheduled for September.

Some observers have suggested he will fight for another term, but that’s not exactly shocking. when he declared that he had withdrawn from the race for party president – ​​which means he will also no longer be prime minister in September when the LDP chooses a new leader.

His diplomatic victories — an ambitious budget to expand the military, deeper ties with the United States and a historic détente with South Korea — could not save him.

“The obvious first step to prove that the LDP will change is for me to resign,” the 67-year-old politician told a crowd of reporters on Wednesday in his usual calm manner.

Except for his words, everything else about him suggested that things were going as usual.

A veteran politician, Fumio Kishida assumed the top job in 2021. His predecessor Yoshihide Suga stepped down after just a year in office, following dismal approval ratings as Japan weathered one of its worst Covid waves.

A month after taking office as Prime Minister, Mr. Kishida led the LDP into the general election and won the victory in the winning coalition.

People who know him well – and have worked with him – told the BBC he is a decent and intelligent man, and a fairly conservative politician. Others say he is a skilled strategist who should not be dismissed so easily.

Mr Kishida’s mild-mannered style belies the fact that he can also be unpredictable and stubborn. His bold but abrupt decision to disband his own faction within the party, for example, led to the disbanding of others – factions as old as the party itself, which are a vital source of funding and money.

For months, observers have called his position untenable, partly because of his indecisive handling of the controversies surrounding him. He has remained steadfast, even as rebellion has grown within the LDP ranks. But the writing is on the wall.

“People are tired now,” Hiromi Murakami, a professor of political science at Temple University in Japan, said weeks before Mr. Kishida decided to step down. “It’s been building up. It’s not just the fundraising scandal.”

The LDP began the year amid controversy. In December, four cabinet ministers, including key allies of the prime minister, and several junior ministers resigned amid allegations that LDP leaders were pocketing millions of dollars in party funds.

An investigation by prosecutors revealed more details and the LDP eventually announced that 85 party members had failed to properly declare their income.

It was just the latest in a series of controversies that have marred his tenure: a year ago, he fired his son, who was hired as executive secretary, after it was discovered that he had misused his position to host a party at the prime minister’s residence.

And the LDP has been reeling from headlines about its links to the controversial Unification Church, which was linked to the assassination of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.

As 2024 rolls around, so does the fallout from all these scandals. And there are new scandals to come.

In April, the LDP lost two seats in by-elections when party lawmakers resigned — one accused of vote-buying, and the other implicated in a fundraising investigation.

Then in July, the Department of Defense was rocked by allegations of mishandling classified and sensitive information, harassment of subordinates, and fraud. A series of disciplinary actions, suspensions, and even firings followed.

At this point, the LDP’s support rate has hit a new low – 19%, the lowest level since 2000, according to a survey by the Asahi Shimbun newspaper.

Mr Kishida has pledged to tackle the crisis “head-on”, but his handling has also been criticised.

He rarely appeared before the political ethics committee, but seemed uncertain and reluctant to say much.

In June, his coalition passed reforms to election financing, but they were met with public skepticism. “Nothing happened even though they spent so much time on it. It’s too late, he should have done something sooner,” said Professor Murakami.

Also in June, he tried to appease disgruntled voters and ease the impact of inflation with a temporary tax cut. But people didn’t seem to think it went far enough.

“The situation is always tense… I find myself struggling with many issues at home and abroad,” was how Mr. Kishida assessed his tenure in late June, when he reached the 1,000-day mark.

June also saw talk of “post-Kishida” candidates – so loud it was picked up in the national media – as disgruntled party colleagues feared an unpopular leader would be on the prime minister’s ticket ahead of next year’s general election.

“[They] Jeff Kingston, professor of Asian studies and history at Temple University, told the BBC at the time: “I think if he was in charge, they would collapse. They’re in a state of panic.”

While there have been several corruption scandals before, this latest one comes at a sad time.

“The economic situation affects people’s thinking,” Professor Murakami said. “People have suffered too much from [Covid] crisis. They could barely pay their bills. But now [they see] “politicians have large sums of money that they do not want to pay taxes on” – a reference to the LDP’s admission that some lawmakers have not properly declared their income.

While his popularity at home has plummeted, Mr Kishida has done well internationally. He was Japan’s longest-serving foreign minister before becoming prime minister. As prime minister, he hosted last year’s G7 summit, visited Ukraine and thawed relations with South Korea, a key ally against both China and North Korea.

Relations with Washington remain as strong as ever. He addressed Congress earlier this year at President Biden’s invitation – and received a standing ovation.

“Thank you,” he told his audience. “I have never received such a warm applause from the Japanese parliament.” [parliament].

Back home, Japanese media strongly criticized the visit, with headlines such as “Kishida should not use the summit as a tool for domestic politics”.

If that was the aim, he failed. Mr Kishida was locked in a battle on many fronts – and his party and voters were running out of patience.

“People vote on wallet issues,” said Professor Kingston. “It’s great that he’s marching around NATO, the EU… and the United States. At the end of the day, I want to see more money in my wallet.”

Mr Kishida said the LDP needed a fresh start – and needed to convince the Japanese people that it could change.

The opposition is still too weak and divided to be a viable option, but there is a lot of distrust within the ruling party.

Can a new face at the helm unite the Liberal Democrats and repair their tarnished image? September will tell.