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Predictions and Odds for NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year


We looked at the betting market to find the winner 2022 offensive rookie of the year in the NFL, and now it’s time to turn our attention to the defensive side of football.

The list of recent winners is pretty well decorated. Since 2010, the Rookie of the Year titles have gone to Ndamukong Sug, Von Miller, Luke Kuechly, Aaron Donald, the Bosa brothers, Marshon Lattimore, Darius Leonard and Chase Young, … Midfielder Micah Parsons of Dallas took home the award last season.

It’s an impressive list, and now we’re sifting through this year’s rookie class to find the next influential defender who is expected to have a big first season in the league.

Odds on Defensive Rookie of the Year

The top of the NFL Draft is filled with defenders, making this a tempting prize to bet on. Here are the top 15 on the board, odds provided by DraftKings.

  1. Aidan Hutchinson (+550)
  2. Kayvon Thibodeaux (+550)
  3. Travon Walker (+750)
  4. Spin Walker (+800)
  5. Kyle Hamilton (+800)
  6. Derek Stingley Jr. (+1000)
  7. Ahmad Gardner (+1000)
  8. Jermaine Johnson II (+1000)
  9. Devin Lloyd (+1000)
  10. Nakobe Dean (+1200)
  11. Jordan Davis (+1400)
  12. Trent McDuffie (+1600)
  13. George Karlaftis (+1600)
  14. Kaiir Elam (+2000)
  15. Andrew Booth Jr. (+2200)

The first five picks in the previous NFL Draft were all defensive players, with a total of 16 picked in the first round. The top three on this board are all side runners. Travon Walker went to Jacksonville first, followed by Hutchinson in 2nd to Detroit and Thibodeaux in 5th to the Giants.

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The number of bags tends to be the easiest way for many to quantify the impact of a defender, which would explain why betting lovers are so down. Four of the previous six DROY winners have specialized in rushing passers.

That doesn’t mean the next winner will be in that mold, but it has evolved into a pattern. We’re diverging from that trend with our two best bets for this market.

Ahmad Gardner +1000

Gardner was picked fourth by the New York Jets, and the corner from Cincinnati would come immediately as a starter to a Jets defense in dire need of reinforcement. An elite full-back cannot be underestimated for a successful defense. Having the ability to shutdown and take away a team’s top pick can completely change the course of a game.

Gardner’s reputation grew as the draft drew near, with his greatest praise that he never allowed a clash in his entire college career. Gardner had nine interceptions in three seasons with Cincinnati, but a full-back’s stats don’t tell the whole story. Gardner is rarely thrown in due to his physical coverage and stickiness.

Assuming Gardner takes that to the next level, he thinks it will remind Jets fans of Darrelle Revis in a hurry. I’m taller on the Jets than some, but if Gardner helps turn this team around in a hurry, he’ll win the spotlight for this award. I like these odds for what many consider to be one of the most talented, ready-made players in this draft.

Jordan Davis +1400

As we tend to do with these futures markets, we often predict a future that may or may not come true. In the case of Jordan Davis, the reality he needs to win Defensive Rookie of the Year will be if one of the Philadelphia Eagles’ defensive saves misses the time of the season.

Davis joins a fully loaded team in Philly that includes Fletcher Cox, Javon Hargrave and Milton Williams. Davis will rotate with these DTs, which will keep everyone fresh and help wreak havoc on the inner offensive lines on their way.

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Davis has shown absolute in combination, registering numbers unheard of for a man of his size. DT from Georgia is a giant player who will command two teams whenever he is on the field. If he watches one-on-one matches, Davis calculates to go to quarterback and run often.

Davis won the Chuck Bednarik Award this past season, which is given to college football’s top defensive player in the country. He won hardware before playing limited snaps, and he could do it again in the NFL.

Davis has the ability to unlock a new type of Eagles defense, opening up lanes for passers on this team to reach laners. His impact may be outside of general stats, but it will be noticed by the Eagles, opponents and the media at the end of the season. Follow Davis early on this season, and at +1400, one of the only athletes to ever enter the tournament deserves a bet.

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