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Prediction of 2022-23 qualifying offers: Player position


The qualifying offer has affected the free agent market in the last 10 games, but it is unclear if there will be an 11th when Major League Baseball and the MLB Players Association enter labor talks. active last winter or not. When the closing process was over and the new collective bargaining agreement was finally settled, one point remained – the implementation of the international player draft. If the union agrees to this draft, the union will agree to phase out the qualifying supply system altogether.

However, July deadline for a decision on a draft international to be made and gone without any new agreement, and thus the status quo of the QO will remain for the free agent class 2022-23. As such, we can now look ahead and predict which players will or may receive a qualifying offer from their team at the end of the season.

Quick update of QO rules. The qualifying offer is a one-year contract with a salary determined by averaging the top 125 salaries of all MLB players. Last year’s figure was $18.4 million and it’s safe to estimate that this winter’s QO will be worth somewhere in the $18 range.USA– 19 million dollars. Any freelance agent is eligible for a qualified offer unless a) they received a on previous trips to the free agency, or b) they didn’t spend the entire 2022 season with their current organization. For example, Padres cannot release Josh Bell a qualified offer because he was only bought on the trading term.

If a player accepts a qualifying offer, he will return to his current team under that one-year deal in the $18 million – $19 million range. (Players can also negotiate a longer term extension with their team after accepting that QO, like Jose Abreu did with the White Sox in November 2019.) While some freelance agents have indeed made qualified offers, the majority rejected the deal in search of a longer and richer contract. If a player declines the QO and signs elsewhere, their new team must give up at least one draft pick and possibly some money from the international draft team, while their old team will receive compensated by a draft pick.

With some of the prominent names in the freelance market this year qualifying for the QO, let’s take a look at some of the contenders, starting with the positional players.

Easy calls: Nolan Arenado (Amount), Xander Bogaerts (Red Sox), Willson Contreras (Unit), Aaron Judge (Yankees), Brandon Nimmo (Mets), Dansby Swanson (Brave), Trea Turner (Dodgers)

There isn’t much drama in any of these decisions, as these players are all obvious candidates to be made qualified offers to be rejected. Nimmo is perhaps the only name on this list that comes as a bit of a surprise, yet he has quietly released strong numbers during his seven seasons in New York, including a quality campaign on Sunday. 2022. Most importantly, Nimmo has also stayed healthy, playing in 104 of the Mets’ 113 games – this is already the second most played for Nimmo in any season of his injured career.

Arenado and Bogaerts are not guaranteed to be freelance agents, as both can exercise opt-out terms in their existing deals. However, Bogaerts is a virtual lock to opt out, and Arenado is having such a great season that he can comfortably hit the $144 million he owes between 2023-27. Since Arenado has been vocal about how much he enjoys playing for the Cardinals, an extension could certainly happen before he hits the open market, with the Cards presumably garnering an additional year of guarantee and more money into the deal to prevent a third player from opting out.

Easy contract option calls: Tim Anderson (White Sox)

The White Sox holds club options on Anderson’s offerings for both the 2023 and 2024 seasons, with next year’s $12.5 million option (with a $1 million buyout). While he could technically be a free agent, there’s no doubt the Sox will exercise Anderson’s 2023 pick, so a qualifying offer is a moot point. .

Border cases: Mitch Haniger (Mariners), J.D. Martinez (Red Sox), Jurickson Profar (Padres), Anthony Rizzo (Yankees)

Rizzo’s two-year, $32 million free agent contract with the Yankees includes an opt-out clause after this season and what looks like the first player (who just turned 33 earlier this week) ) will actually test the open market again. Rizzo’s first full season in the Bronx saw him record .224 / .342 / .504 with 27 home runs, with wRC+ (139) the fifth-best of his outstanding career. older brother. Rizzo’s age, lane/house splits, and first-base status will limit his market to some extent, and compensating draft pickers through a qualifying offer will also make Other teams must be wary. But Rizzo was still able to strike a multi-year pact last winter after a year of less grounding, so he should be able to match or better that pact again. Rizzo has quickly become a club and fan favorite in New York, so this could be another situation where a player is convinced to turn down due to a contract extension.

Haniger has only appeared 15 games this season, due to a high ankle sprain that forced him to join the 60-day injury list, as well as two weeks on the COVID-related injury list in April. He’s been in tears since returning to action last week, but if his numbers stay steady, it doesn’t look like Seattle will make a qualified offer. However, if Haniger continues to play for the rest of the season and returns to 2021 form, the Mariners will face an interesting decision.

A late-season heatwave could be enough to put Haniger’s market on hold to make it possible for him to turn down a qualified offer. Since Haniger turns 32 in December, this could be his best blow in a lucrative multi-year deal. On the other hand, he could still choose to accept a QO, knowing that his history of checkered injuries could work against him in freelance company – Haniger could bank a year’s QO payday and then hope hope for a full and healthy 2023 season as better foundation for that long-term deal. From the Mariners’ perspective, paying around $19 million for Haniger could be seen as a worthwhile investment, especially since the team didn’t know what to expect from Kyle Lewis and Kelenic is hard to understand to 2023.

Martinez turns 35 on Aug. 21 and is still posting numbers above average (120 wRC+), hitting .281/.346/.443 with nine home runs across 422 appearances. That still represents a significant drop in strength by Martinez’s standards, and he has been the only DH player this season. Even at the risk of losing Bogaerts from the Red Sox roster, Boston could still hand over QO to Martinez because of concerns he can accept, as baseball director Chaim Bloom appears to be looking for more flexibility with both squads and salary sheets.

Profar is another candidate less likely to receive a qualified offer, even if he is also playing well. Between good offensive numbers (119 wRC+, 12 hosts, 0.254/.345/.416 out of 467 PA) and defense (+5 Saved defensive runs, +1.8 UZR/150 on the field left), Profar has been a 2.8 fWAR player in 107 games against San Diego this season, a great comeback from a poor 2021. With the player option tied to his 2023 offerings, Profar could earn $7.5 million next season or buy back $1 million and test the open market.

At the very least, it looks like Profar will actually opt out and try to secure a longer-term contract, but it does seem a possibility if Padres makes a qualified offer. Profar will only be 30 years old on Opening Day, so he could accept a QO to close that one year salary date and then be on the road to testing the market again at 31. Considering Padres could exceed luxury tax threshold for the second year in a row, and facing so many freelance decisions this winter, they probably won’t want to risk getting Profar on a $19 million salary. Profar could be another expansion candidate, given that president of baseball operations AJ Preller believes in Profar’s abilities dating back to their days in the Rangers organization.





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