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Your guide to what the 2024 US election means for Washington and the world
Donald Trump’s victory gave the Republican Party its highest popular vote margin in two decades – and showed major changes in US elections, from the Democratic Party’s reliance on wealthy voters more, college-educated to the strength of issues such as immigration.
Low Democratic turnout also hurt Kamala Harris’s chances while support from traditionally left-leaning voting groups, such as Hispanic and black votersfall.
The results also show that poorer and less educated voters now think Republicans best represent them – a reversal from 12 years ago, when Democrat Barack Obama was is the president.
After diving into the data, here are five takeaways.
Democratic support depends on high-income voters
Economic restructuring has been underway for some time but was accelerated in this election. The Democratic Party now appears to be the party of high-income voters, not low-income voters.
For the first time in decades, the Democratic Party has more support from Americans in the top third of its income bracket than from poorer groups, according to an FT analysis of voter surveys. than.
In contrast to 2020, the majority of low-income households or those earning less than $50,000/year voted for Trump in this election. In contrast, those earning more than $100,000 voted for Harris, according to exit polls.
At the same time, Trump received sustained support from voters without a college degree, with nearly two-thirds voting for the former president, according to statistics. exit voting in ten states by NBC News.
Immigration may have pushed voters to Trump
ONE Gallup poll before the election showed that American voters considered immigration the most important issue facing the country, with 55% saying it was a “serious threat” to America.
The results from Tuesday show how damaging the issue is for Harris, who Trump blames for a record number of border crossings under the Biden administration.
Some of the areas furthest from the former president are on the southwestern U.S. border, including Hidalgo and Zapata counties in Texas and Santa Cruz County in Arizona.
In Texas, Trump flipped four counties on the US-Mexico border that had voted for Democratic presidential candidates since the 1970s.
Trump captured the suburbs and cities became less democratic
Joe Biden’s victory over Trump in 2020 was largely due to large Democratic turnout in swing state suburbsincludes a blue wave in majority-white suburbs in Pennsylvania and Georgia, as well as both majority-white and Latino areas in Phoenix and Tucson, Arizona.
But on Tuesday, Trump won more votes than Harris everywhere outside the big cities, including the suburbs. In major urban areas, Democrats lost more than 1 million votes compared to 2020, according to FT analysis of the results.
The rural-urban divide has increasingly become an inherent depth of American politics, but this election saw Democratic support in big cities plummet, while regional Rural areas continue to become redder.
Areas with a majority of Hispanics support Trump
Days before the election, comedian Tony Hinchcliffe’s disparaging remarks about Puerto Rico at a Trump rally cast doubt on the Republican candidate’s ability to win over Latino voters.
But the results showed that Latinos were as well other non-white votersincreasingly attracted to Trump. This change could have a lasting impact as Latinos are among the fastest growing ethnic groups in America.
Even in liberal areas like Philadelphia, the most populous city in Pennsylvania, voters leaned toward Trump in majority-Western areas, according to an FT analysis of city data. Spain, even though Harris won those districts overall.
In Texas, some of the biggest swings for Trump also came from majority-Hispanic counties, including Starr County on the U.S.-Mexico border, which is more than 96% Hispanic.
Trump even sought to flip Florida’s most populous county, majority-Hispanic Miami-Dade County, for the first time since 1988.
Low turnout among Democrats highlighted the tilt toward Trump
Not all of the shift toward Trump across the country is due to increased support for Republicans.
While New York favored Trump by 12 points in 2024, 190,000 fewer people voted for him than in 2020. However, 800,000 fewer people voted for Harris than Biden in the state. Illinois and Ohio followed similar trends.
Among the swing states, only in Pennsylvania did Democrats lose more votes than Trump won. In Wisconsin, Georgia and North Carolina, the party increased its votes – although only by 300 in North Carolina.
Harris’ get-out-the-vote effort has borne some fruit, with current estimates showing the share of people eligible to vote has increased in all but two swing states.
Additional reporting by Radhika Rukmangadhan in New York and Alan Smith in London
