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Poland, a neighboring country, is ready for the influx of migrants


People evacuated from the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic walk towards the Russian Emergencies Ministry camp in the village of Veselo-Voznesenka on the shores of the Sea of ​​Azov, on February 19, 2022.

Andrey Borodulin | Afp | beautiful pictures

Like a crisis in Ukraine openedNeighboring countries are closely monitoring the radiation incident.

Countries around the globe have imposed unprecedented sanctions on Moscow, but the economic and military consequences of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine are only part of the picture.

Continental Europe fears that an all-out assault could lead to a major migrant crisis – of the kind not seen since the Second World War – with severe humanitarian, political and economic costs. society for both Ukrainian refugees and the countries from which they fled.

Indeed, several Central European countries are already preparing.

Poland, which shares a land border about 530 kilometers with Ukraine, said last month that it was preparing 1 million Ukrainian refugees, who they planned to stay in dorms with, to sign. dormitories and sports facilities. Nearby Romania is anticipating migration in “hundreds of thousands“while Slovakia and the Czech Republic estimate inflows in the tens of thousands.

However, the nature of the developing situation in Ukraine means that the size of the potential civilian displacement remains unknown.

“As far as Europe is concerned, it is likely to be one of the biggest impacts of this crisis,” Oksana Antonenko, global director of risk analysis at Control Risks, told CNBC on Tuesday.

A full-fledged invasion could displace millions

Ukraine, house about 44 million VNDsee internally displaced about 1.5 million people after Russia annexed Crimea in 2014. Others still moved to Russia.

Russia’s campaign earlier this week to capture the rebel-held regions of Donetsk and Luhansk is seen as likely to incite a similar internal and eastern exodus, albeit on different scales. Indeed, many were shipped to Russia.

However, experts warned Thursday’s further incursion into central and western Ukraine could have far larger impacts.

The US government estimates that an invasion of Ukraine could prompt one to five million Ukrainians to flee from the battlefield. Ukraine’s Defense Minister put that number closer to three to five million.

If that happens, we are certainly talking about hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of refugees.

Oksana Antonenko

Global director of risk analysis at Control Risk

“If that happens, we are certainly talking about hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of refugees, and most likely they will flee to Europe instead of Russia,” Antonenko said. .

“If you end up with a Russia-occupied Ukraine, it’s going to be more permanent European refugees,” says Rodger Baker, Stratfor’s senior vice president of strategic analysis at Rane.

Poland, Hungary and Slovakia main recipient countries

In such a case, the lion population could move overland to bordering countries: Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, Moldova and Romania. According to EU policy, Ukrainians do not need a visa to enter the Schengen Area – a common travel area between EU countries, including all the aforementioned bars of Moldova and Romania.

But Western European countries such as Germany, France and Britain can quickly feel moral pressure to share the burden, which the UK defense secretary says will be the worst migrant crisis “since the end of the war”. painting.”

A woman carries her belongings as evacuees from the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic sit on a bus waiting to be relocated.

Andrey Borodulin | AFP | beautiful pictures

Last week, the Pentagon said 3,000 US troops had been deployed to Poland to help prepare for a military invasion potential flow of migrants after authorities there said it should be prepared for “worst case scenario.”

Poland’s deputy interior minister, Maciej Wasik, told Polish TV: “If there is war in Ukraine, we must prepare for the real influx of refugees, who are fleeing from hell, from death, from the cruelty of war”.

“As a government, we have to prepare for the worst, and for some time the interior ministry has taken steps to prepare us for the arrival of even a million people.”

Currently, Poland is home to a sizable Ukrainian community. Although a few have requested refugee status, Poland has issued 300,000 temporary stay visas to Ukraine in recent years. Indeed, some estimates as much as 2 million Ukrainians have migrated to Poland since the annexation of Crimea.

Europe still doubts preparation

Even when it does happen, governments are rarely fully prepared. They are currently focusing on the short term.

Rodger Baker

Senior Vice President of Strategic Analytics, Ran

Meanwhile, the political implications of such mass migration are not without concern. The refugee crisis of 2015 is believed to have fueled a far-right, anti-immigration movement that exploded across Europe in the years that followed. A similar influx of migrants could pose similar challenges in an already precarious post-Covid environment.

But until governments know more about the extent of a subsequent invasion and the potential effects of migration, their ability to prepare will be limited.

“Even when there is a possibility, governments are rarely fully prepared,” says Baker. “They are currently focusing on preventive and short-term measures.”

“Poland is very sensitive to the situation,” he said, adding that others “do not seek and hope for the best.”



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