Even when their cities were heavily shelled, the Ukrainian people defied. Savage destruction the country’s power grid and indiscriminate violence against civilians appear to strengthen the West’s resolve to support Ukraine “as long as it is needed.” But many in Europe and the United States, including a group of Democratic lawmakers, who Step back Their call to push for US negotiations with the Kremlin, has begun to wonder how Russia’s war with Ukraine ends. Such mixed signals are unfortunate because Ukraine knows very well what victory will entail.
The war for Ukraine has now dragged on for eight years and eight months, beginning with the annexation of Crimea and the establishment of Kremlin puppet regimes in the Donbas and bursting, on 24 February 2022, into a full-scale invasion. Russia’s unprovoked aggression against Ukraine is part of the Kremlin’s plan to subjugate one of Europe’s largest states and project power over Europe by brutal force. Ukraine’s fight to reclaim sovereignty is to deny Russia sees it as the right to impose its neo-imperialist aspirations on its neighbour.
Victory for Ukraine will require the defeat of the Russian Army on Ukrainian territory, including in Crimea. Ukraine’s recent advances prove that this is not a distant dream anymore. Russia struggles to control 800 miles frontline stretches from the Black Sea coast to the mining cities of northeastern Luhansk Oblast. In September, the better-trained, well-equipped and highly motivated Ukrainian army regained the strategic initiative. Kyiv has regained more territory in the counter-offensive than Russia has won in recent months. Restoring Ukraine to its internationally recognized borders in 1991 was a goal of the Ukrainian Army. It has the full support of the citizens, only 8 percent some of them are willing to give up their territory in exchange for peace.
Fighting was fierce, especially in the Donetsk region, but even the most capable Russian combat units could not advance even if they continued. outnumber Ukrainian soldiers. To gain the upper hand, Kyiv fought smartly, causing the front lines to collapse by attacking deep behind the enemy’s front lines. US-supplied HIMARS rocket launcher allowed this strategy. Sophisticated deception operations, such as in Kharkiv Oblast around Izium, prompted the Russians to flee and provide more supplies to the advancing Ukrainian army. If current momentum continues, Ukraine looks certain to join Kherson.
The Crimean Bridge is already damaged complicated supply to the Russian positions in the south. Crimea was used as the main route for the Russian reinforcement in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia. The disruption will slow the delivery of newly deployed soldiers to the front lines. If Crimea can still be delivered by sea, Russian positions on the Ukrainian coast, especially in Melitopol, will be in jeopardy. The moment may come within the next six months, when Ukraine’s upgraded stockpile of artillery, air defense systems and armored vehicles allows for a new push. The head of Ukraine’s military intelligence service, Kyrylo Budanov, shows that Ukraine will continue to advance through the winterwith the goal of reaching Crimea in the spring of 2023.
Whether militarily or as a result of a negotiated deal, control of Crimea is only a matter of time. The annexation of the peninsula was the starting point of the war; Ukrainians consider the settlement of their situation appropriate international law as a sign of the end of the conflict. The victory of Ukraine without the reclamation of Crimea is not a victory of Ukraine.
Which brings us to Vladimir Putin. For the war to end, a transfer of power must happen in the Kremlin. Because Putin has made the subjugation of Ukraine and the annexation of Crimea his personal duty, defeating Russia’s armed forces and the threat to keeping Crimea will undermine its support. both elites and the populace towards his regime. Losing a war is fatal for any dictator.
A change of head of state would be driven by Russian elites, rather than popular opposition. The time will come for the ruling class to change its calculus on where to invest its shrinking resources. Dissatisfaction with mobilization, poor military supply, heavy losses in numbers, especially among non-Russian minorities – all will erode cohesion. Last month, one mass shooting between two Tajik conscripts and Russian soldiers allegedly caused by a religious dispute. Groups like Free Buryatia Foundation advocated an end to war and apartheid in Russia. But there are also more militant divisions that can aim to command resources and power as the Kremlin is bogged down in Ukraine. Yevgeny Prigozhin, the man behind the infamous Wagner Corporation, a private military company that played an important role in Russia during the war, has come to prominence as a proponent of an all-out war with Ukraine. He directed his suffering at the Minister of Defense Sergei Shoigu for the defeats on the battlefield. Putin’s internal dissension suggests that some of these effects are already happening.
In order to free their countries from the dangers of centrifugal forces, brutal war, and internal turmoil, elites may find it necessary to try to save Russia instead of slaughtering Ukraine. President Volodymyr Zelensky firmly confirmed after the most recent wave of mergers that he would only negotiate with a new Russian leader. This decision was approved by the National Security Council of Ukraine and supported by absolute majority of Ukrainians. With the state’s powerful propaganda machine, Russian citizens can be exposed to a new reality, encouraging them to support the policy of ending the war and returning to normal.
Russia’s new leader will have to deal with another key element of Ukraine’s victory: accountability. Putin and his successor must answer for obvious war crimes and crimes against humanity, and their funds must be used to compensate for the destruction of industries, energy facilities and other infrastructure of Ukraine, which has been estimated at about 130 billion dollars. If Russia refuses to voluntarily pay for this terrible destruction, its frozen state assets will be seized and redirected to rebuild Ukraine.
Victory of this kind by Ukraine and its international partners could offer the chance for lasting peace in Europe. A Ukraine victory would also bring the continent into balance by defeating Russia’s revisionist plans, such as reaching beyond Ukraine. in Bosnia. Russia has clearly stated in December 2021 ultimatum that it denies neighboring states the right to choose the security alliances they desire. The victory of a global democratic coalition would be a definitive “no” to Mr. Putin’s colonial agenda to rule neighboring countries under the threat of nuclear blackmail if they decide to. escape Russian control.
The resistance of the Ukrainian people and their leaders to Russian aggression paved the way for a future in which the free world could prevail over Mr. Putin’s autocracy – which is not going to happen. out tomorrow, but Ukrainians believe it’s in sight. Defeating Russia in Ukraine sounds difficult, but the alternative will cost us more. If Putin is allowed to prevail and see this war as a victory for his people, it will strengthen Russia’s belligerent posture, encourage other autocrats to use force, strengthen the tide of conflict. attack on global food and energy markets, and began to rapidly militarize. Ukraine will continue to make great sacrifices to avoid this outcome. That is why the West must help Ukraine win.
