Opinion | The Midterms Look Very Different if You’re Not a Democrat or a Republican
Douthat: Right. For example, in the field of experts, there is a presumption that Republican candidates should be judged on the extent of their total dedication to election conspiracy theories and that voters are confused. lay should recover from the conspirators. That seems to be happening in Pennsylvania, where the more conspiratorial Republican, Doug Mastriano, appears to be doing worse in his gubernatorial race than Dr. Oz in the Senate campaign. But in Arizona, Lake is the more conspiratorial candidate, and she appears to be a stronger candidate than Blake Masters in the race for the Senate.
This suggests that swing voters often use a different compass than political class.
Leibovitz: Let me give you a huge dose – dare I say it? – hope here. Yes, there is a lot of hate and a lot of fear going on. But if you look at the volatility patterns you are describing, you are seeing something else, the desire for a real vision. Voters are focusing on candidates who are telling them coherent stories that make sense. To the political elite, these stories sometimes sound conspiratorial or crazy or far from the reality of the Beltway. But for ordinary Americans, they resonate.
Douthat: Or, Stephanie, are they just swinging back and forth based on gas prices, and all the bigger stories are experts’ imposition of more basic pocket impulses?
Slade: Well, I’m a bit divided on this. Economic fundamentals also matter a lot, as do structural factors (such as the president’s party often performing poorly in the middle of a term, regardless of everything else).
Douthat: But then, as an unusually informed, cross-pressured American, do you feel electing Republicans in the House or Senate would help the economy? , with inflation it?
Slade: It is a debate among libertarians whether divided government is really a good thing. Or is it something the two sides can agree on that they should spend more money on? I don’t have much hope that a Republican-controlled House or Senate will do much good. On the other hand, the sheer economic madness of the Biden years – to the point of more approval 4 trillion dollars about new loans, not to mention unconstitutional eviction moratoriums and student loan forgiveness – I’m freaking out, so pretty much anything that can stop some of this is seems worth a try.
Douthat: Speak like a swing voter. Liel, you’re not a libertarian, but your particular profile – a Jewish immigrant writer suffering from progressive extremism – performs like a previous cross-pressured group, 1970’s neoliberalists. Over time, many neoliberalists ended up comfortably on the right (at least until recently) because they felt welcomed by the optimism in Ronald Reagan’s presidency.