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Opinion | No One Will Get Rid of Vladimir Putin


War has the potential to alter this calculus. The ruling class, which acquired wealth to gain a position of power, went against a new reality: Their property in the West was confiscated or punished – no more yachts, no more As for the mansion, there’s nowhere to run. For many officials and financiers close to the government, this means the collapse of all their life plans, and in principle, it can be argued that there is not a single social group in Russia of any kind. more content with war than Putin’s kleptocrats.

But there’s a benefit: They traded their rights as political representatives for those yachts and villas. The basic intrigue in Russian domestic politics is tied to this fact. Mr. Putin’s escape from the military has had a devastating effect on the lives of the grassroots elite, whom he has always trusted. But the elites, plagued by their dependence on power for their wealth and security, find themselves in no position to say no to Mr. Putin.

That’s not to say their dissatisfaction didn’t come to light. Finance Minister Anton Siluanov speak publicly about the difficulties in performing their duties in the new conditions. Aleksei Kudrin, chairman of the state financial audit agency and a Kremlin insider, explained at a meeting with Putin that the war had brought the Russian economy to a dead end. And even the head of the state military-industrial monopoly, Sergei Chemezov, wrote an article about the failure to materialize Putin’s plans. But unsupported by political weight, such views are of no benefit – or danger – to Mr. Putin.

It is true that wars often give rise to a new class of officers and generals who can threaten the president’s rule. However, this is not the case in Russia, possibly because Mr. Putin is trying to prevent his generals from gaining too much fame. The names of the commanders of the Russian army in Ukraine are keep secret until the end of June, and propaganda about the “heroes” of the war preferred to present stories of people who had lost their lives and were no longer able to manifest political ambitions. In any case, Mr. Putin has surrounded himself with favored security personnel, whose loyalty to him is unquestionable.

Faced with this situation, the Russian authorities could do nothing but wait. They may try to play some kind of quiet game of their own, including separate negotiations with the West, but so far there is no evidence of a humanitarian corridor for the elite. Russia. Even if someone – for example, a oligarch close to Mr Putin like Roman Abramovich – manages to break into the West, all that awaits him will be forfeiture of his assets and suspicion. By comparison, even Putin’s paranoia might be more appropriate.

If members of the ruling elite can’t topple Mr. Putin, maybe the professional middle classes can too? But there, the outlook is dire, too. For those who came out to criticize the war, the fate of Marina Ovsyannikova, an editor at the state-controlled Channel 1, is the instructor. After staging a high-pitched protest – during a live broadcast of a popular evening news program, she stood behind the announcer and held a poster that read “Stop the war ” – she fled the country to avoid arrest, leaving her family behind. Moscow.



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