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Opinion | Endemic Covid-19 Looks Pretty Brutal


It’s natural to look at those charts and feel relieved, appreciate the level of immune protection the country has accumulated over time, especially against severe illness and hospitalization. But that steady-state footprint is also surprisingly heavy. More than 300 Americans died almost every day for months; Today the number is over 400 and growing.

Currently, Bedford said, about 5% of the country’s population is infected with coronavirus each month, and he expects that pattern to continue. I ask what does that imply about the wisdom of death? By the estimate of a football field, he said, in the future, we can predict that every year, about 50% of Americans will be infected and more than 100,000 people will die.

This year was significantly worse, largely because it included the initial arrival of Omicron – which is often described as “mild”, which killed more than 100,000 Americans in the first six weeks of the year. And so, even though the country’s current trajectory is following an annual rate of 100,000 deaths, more than 200,000 Americans have died this year, meaning more than 250,000 deaths by the end of 2022.

Michael Mina, an epidemiologist who has left Harvard to become the chief scientist of the online health portal eMed in 2021 after spending most of the pandemic as a evangelist of rapid testing top of the country, believing it could get worse. With a combination of seasonality and weakened immunity in older people, he said, there is a potential for a drop of perhaps 1,000 people a day. That would put the number of Americans killed, this year, likely to reach 300,000 or more.

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Questions surrounding the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic, as well as vaccines and treatments.

That number, 10 times more than in recent flu seasons, is certainly smaller than the number of the first two years of the pandemic, when just over 400,000 Americans died in President Donald’s entire final year. Trump and during the first term of President Biden. But it’s not much smaller. Nationwide, the death rate from infection is a fraction of what it used to be, but the disease is much more widespread now and has been around for an entire year, which means the disease is still making a difference. death toll is quite severe – especially among the elderly, who have accumulated immunity more slowly than the rest of the population and eliminated it more quickly.

Following a recent stumbling block in which Ashish Jha, the White House’s virus response coordinator, called the daily death toll “low,” the administration has called the current level “unacceptable.” . But there is little reason to expect that level to drop much, at least not significantly. “You feel stuck in this loop,” says Natalie Dean at Emory, a biostatistician specializing in infectious disease epidemiology. “We all probably feel the same way. It looks like – another wave. ” If anything, she said, “it looks like things are getting better now,” with BA.5. “That steady state doesn’t put us in a great place.”



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