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Opinion | Can America Really Envision World War III?


The economic consequences would be equally dire. A Chinese invasion of Taiwan, which produces most of the world’s advanced semiconductors, would take a heavy toll on the US and global economy regardless of Washington’s response. (To achieve this goal, the United States has been trying move more semiconductor manufacturers home.) But a US-China war would risk catastrophic damage. Researchers at RAND estimate that a year-long conflict would cut US gross domestic product from 5 to 10 percent. By contrast, the US economy shrank 2.6% in 2009, the worst year of the Great Recession. The early rise in gas prices during the Ukraine war provides only the smallest preview of what a US-China war would produce. for roughly three-fifths of Americans For those who are currently living on wages, war will strike, causing millions to lose their jobs, dwindling pension funds, high prices, and shortages.

In short, a war with Russia or China would likely harm the United States on a scale unprecedented in most people’s living memory. That, in turn, creates deep uncertainty about how the American political system works. Joining will be the easy part. More elusive is whether the public and its representatives will maintain the will to fight for remote territories in the face of prolonged physical attacks and economic catastrophe. As millions of people lose their jobs, will they find Taiwan’s cause worth their sacrifice? Can national leaders convincingly explain why the United States paid a heavy price in World War III?

These questions will be asked during a conflict, so they should be asked first. Even those who think the United States should fight for Ukraine or Taiwan are interested in educating the public about the risks of great power conflict in the nuclear and cyber age.

The last nuclear-related sign I saw, a few weeks ago, proudly declared a small free suburb of Washington, DC, a “nuclear-free zone.” “Duck and Cover” deserves a 21st-century remake — something a little more memorable than that of the Department of Homeland Security. “Nuclear Explosion” fact sheet, which nonetheless contains sound advice. (For example, after the shockwave passes, you have 10 minutes or more to seek shelter before the fallout hits.) For any moral condemnation of the enemy’s actions, Americans should hear candid assessments of the costs of trying to stop them. a war game aired on “Meet the Press”” in May offers a model. Even better is to follow it up with a peaceful game, showing how to avoid devastation in the first place. Without raising public awareness, political leaders risk the worst outcome — waging World War III and defeat as the country declines.

OneUS international relations have deteriorated in recent years, critics of US global hegemony have often warn It’s a new cold war was brewing. I used to among them. However, pointing to a cold war in some way underestimates the danger. Relations with Russia and China are not guaranteed to remain cold. During the early Cold War, American leaders and citizens knew that survival was inevitable. The violence that wreaked havoc on the world remained a possible destination of great power rivalry, until it came to an astonishing end in 1989.

Today, the United States once again assumes the primary burden of countering the ambitions of governments in Moscow and Beijing. When it does so for the first time, it lives in the shadow of world war and acts out of a frank and healthy fear of others. This time, lessons will have to be learned without that experience.

Stephen Wertheim is a senior fellow in the American Arts Program in Governance at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and a visiting lecturer at Yale Law School and Catholic University. He is the author of “The World of Tomorrow: The Birth of America’s Global Supremacy.”

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