If you weren’t scared before the midterm elections, you weren’t paying attention.
We can talk about the common stock of these elections – their impact on economic policy, major social programs, environmental policy, civil liberties and reproductive rights. And it’s not wrong to have these discussions: Life will go on no matter what happens in politics, and government policies will continue to have a big impact on people’s lives.
But I, at least, always feel a little guilty when I write about inflation or the fate of Medicare. Well, these are my specialties. However, focusing on them feels a bit like denial, or at least avoidance, when the underlying holdings right now are so real.
Ten or 20 years ago, those of us warning that Republicans have become increasingly radicalized and anti-democratic are often dismissed as alarmists. But the alarmists were vindicated every step of the way, from the fake sale of the Iraq war to the January 6 uprising.
Indeed, these days, it is almost common sense that the GOP, if possible, will transform America into something like Viktor Orban’s Hungary: a democracy on paper, but a one-party state. nationalism, de facto dictatorship. After all, American conservatives make no secret of seeing Hungary as a role model; they took Orban and introduced him at conference.
At this point, however, I believe even this conventional wisdom is wrong. If America fell to one-party rule, it would be worse, much worse than what we see in Hungary today.
Before I get there, let’s talk about the role of common policy issues in these elections.
If Democrats lose one or both houses of Congress, there will be a huge chorus of re-elections, largely insisting that they should focus on kitchen table issues and say nothing about threats. for democracy.
I am not claiming any expertise here, but I do note that the party of an incumbent president almost always lost a midterm seat. The only exception to that rule this century was in 2002, when George W. Bush was able to deflect attention from unemployment recovery by acting as the defender of the United States against terrorism. That record suggests that, if anything, Democrats should talk more about issues beyond the economy.
I would also like to say that pretending that this is a normal election season where only economic policy is at stake is fundamentally dishonest.
Finally, even voters who are more worried about wages and the cost of living than about democracy should be very concerned about the GOP’s rejection of democratic norms.
For one thing, Republicans have been public about their plans to use the threat of economic chaos to draw concessions they could not obtain through the normal legislative process.
Also, while I understand voters’ instinct is to pick a different driver if they don’t like the economy going, they should understand that this time, voting Republican doesn’t just mean someone else. the opportunity to drive; it could be a big step towards giving the GOP permanent control, with no chance for voters to revisit that decision if they don’t like the outcome.
Which brings me to the question of what a one-party America looks like.
Like I said, it’s almost conventional wisdom now that the Republican Party is trying to make us Hungary. Indeed, Hungary provides a case study of how democracies can die out in the 21st century.
But what struck me when I read about Orban’s rule was that while his regime was profoundly repressive, the repression was relatively subtle. As one sensitive article put it, “soft fascism“Making dissidents impotent by controlling the economy and the media without beating them up or sending them to jail.
Do you think a MAGA regime, with or without Donald Trump, would be equally sophisticated? Listen to speeches at any Trump rally. They were filled with hatred, promising to imprison and punish anyone – including technocrats like Anthony Fauci – whom the movement disliked.
And most Americans rightly agree with, or at least are unwilling to condemn, violence against their opponents. The Republican response to the attack on Paul Pelosi by an intruder carried out by MAGA was to say: “Many people in the party don’t even pretend to be horrified. Instead, they peddled evil conspiracy theory. And the rest of the group did not boycott or punish those who introduced lowly falsehoods.
In short, if MAGA wins, we’ll probably find ourselves wishing its rules were as tolerant, relatively benign, and relatively nonviolent as Orban’s.
Now, this disaster doesn’t have to happen. Even if Republicans win big midterms, it won’t be the end of democracy, although it will be a big blow. And nothing in politics, not even purely authoritarian, is permanent.
On the other hand, even if we are pardoned this week, the reality remains that democracy is in deep danger from the authoritarian right. America as we know it is not lost yet, but it is on the brink.
