Novo Nordisk is expected to maintain its lead in the diabetes market over Eli Lilly, report shows

Although Eli Lilly (NYSE:ONLY) expanded its diabetes portfolio in May with approval of Mounjaro (tirzepatide)rival Novo Nordisk (NVO) is considered to maintain its leading position in the type 2 diabetes (T2D) therapy market, according to GlobalData.

In a new report, GlobalData says that Novo’s (NVO) the glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) franchise — which includes Rybelsus (oral semaglutide), Victoza/Saxenda (liraglutide), and Ozempic/Wegovy (semaglutide) — had a strong year as sales increased by 44% (assuming the exchange rate is constant) in the first three quarters of 2022.

Total GLP-1 sales for Novo (NVO) for the first nine months was ~59 billion DKK (~$8.2 billion), led by Ozempic with ~42.8 billion DKK (~$6 billion).

Lilly’s (ONLY) the diabetes portfolio is dominated by Trulicity (duraglutide), a once-a-week injectable drug that delivered $1.85 billion in sales in Q3 2022, up 16% year-on-year. last year. Its next best-selling diabetes drug, Jardiance (empagliflozin), had Q3 sales of ~$543 million, up 47% year-over-year.

Mounjaro, the first diabetes drug that activates GLP-1 and glucose-dependent intravascular polypeptide (GIP) receptors, posted Q3 sales of $187 million.

Mounjaro will most likely become Lilly’s blockbuster (ONLY) is not necessarily a diabetes drug, but as a weight loss treatment, although it has not yet been approved in that designation. In a head-to-head trial against Wegovy – approved for weight loss – Mounjaro surpassed it in A1C and reduced weight.

“Although Lilly (ONLY) launched Mounjaro in the past year and has a triad agonist, retatrutide, the GLP-1RA/GIP/glucagon receptor (GR) is entering development phase III, Novo Nordisk (NVO“ONLY) will steal a large market share from semaglutide and potentially become the dominant supplier of GLP-1RA. “

Patel added that because the incidence of T2D is on the rise around the world, there is a good chance for both companies to increase their market share.

Globally, the diabetes therapy market is expected to grow from $58.5 billion in 2021 to $91.7 billion by 2028, according to Insight Partners. That’s a CAGR of 6.8%.

Despite Novo’s (NVO) impressive growth, found Seeking Alpha collaborator Daniel Schonberger The company’s stock is expensive and the stock is valued as a holding.