A Ukrainian intelligence assessment found that Pyongyang supplied Moscow’s military with long-range missile and artillery systems, some of which were delivered to Russia’s Kursk region to carry out a coordinated attack. participation of North Korean soldiers to repel Ukrainian forces.
In recent weeks, North Korea has supplied about 50 domestically produced M1989 170mm self-propelled guns and 20 updated 240mm multiple launch rocket systems that can fire standard and guided missiles, according to the report. shared with Financial Times.
The new arms transfer from North Korea marks the latest expansion of the authoritarian state’s support for Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine.
Michael Kofman, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said they followed a pattern of increasing North Korean involvement, “from sending large amounts of ammunition and weapons and becoming a direct party.” participate in this war, which could help Russian forces retake the territory.” Kursk region”.
He noted that North Korea played a key role in supplying millions of artillery shells to the Russian military in 2023.
The country has deepened its involvement this year by sending more than 12,000 troops, according to multiple Western intelligence assessments, to further internationalize the conflict.
The delivery comes at a pivotal moment, when the Ukrainian and Russian troops fight for territorial interests ahead of the presidential inauguration of Donald Trump, who has vowed to force a swift end to the nearly three-year war.
Ukrainian officials provided information about the weapons after a photo showing North Korean artillery began circulating on social media this week.
That’s the photo Open source analysts were able to geolocate to the Krasnoyarsk region in central Russia, showing several artillery pieces wrapped in camouflage netting and being transported by rail westward.
The heavy weapon system can fire artillery shells up to 60 km. The M1989 howitzer, produced in 1989, is a slightly upgraded version of the original M1979 model first produced in the late 1970s, which Pyongyang supplied to Tehran during the Iran-Iraq war.
The upgraded missile system is based on the Soviet-designed BM-27 “Uragan” or Hurricane, a self-propelled 220mm multiple rocket launcher designed to deliver cluster munitions. North Korea said in May that it had successfully tested an updated system with precision-guided munitions.
A senior Ukrainian official told the FT that Pyongyang now wants to test the weapon in combat. Kyiv hopes they will be used against its forces, which currently hold about 600 square kilometers of territory inside Russia’s Kursk region.
According to Ukrainian and Western intelligence officials, Russia mobilized 50,000 troopsincludes 10,000 North Korean soldiers equipped with Russian uniforms and weapons, and are ready for an attack. Attacks can happen at any time.
According to military analysts, Ukrainian forces in Kursk have lost nearly half of the 1,100 square kilometers of territory they captured in a surprise attack in August. Kyiv is trying to keep the 600 square kilometers still within range. control to use as leverage in any future negotiations with Russia.
But with Russian troops marching across much of the 1,000km front line, North Korea’s army beefing up its numbers and Ukrainian forces exhausted and stretched, they face a difficult task.
According to Deep State, a Kyiv-based war monitoring group with close links to the Ministry of Defense, in recent months Russia has used its advantage in manpower and firepower to seize more than 1,200 square kilometers. in Ukraine.
The group said nearly 500 square kilometers of territory was captured in October alone. Much of what Ukraine lost was in the eastern region of Donetsk, where defenses around the strategic cities of Pokrovsk and Kurakhove are crumbling. lay.
However, the benefits Russia achieved came at a high price, said British Defense Minister Admiral Sir Tony Radakin. He estimated that Moscow’s forces suffered about 1,500 dead and wounded “every day” in October, the heaviest month of casualties since the invasion in February 2022. Radakin gave the casualty toll Moscow’s total is about 700,000.
Ukrainian officials told the FT on November 4 that their forces were there shooting at North Korean soldiers first time in Kursk. But North Korea, the first foreign military force to enter the war, has yet to engage in larger ground attacks.
Ukrainian officials believe that North Korea’s military, including some of their country’s top special forces units, will play two roles in Russia’s upcoming campaign: some will fight alongside ground forces. of the country, while others will be used to hold and control recaptured territory in Ukraine. work.
“The North Korean military could provide a tactical advantage to Russian forces in Kursk, although much depends on their numbers and how they are used,” Kofman said.
By using them in Kursk, he said, Moscow could free up its forces “to continue offensive operations elsewhere in eastern Ukraine.”
North Korea has previously supplied Russia with ballistic missiles and artillery shells. In return, Moscow will provide Pyongyang with military technology to support its missile program as well as “money,” a senior Ukrainian official said.
South Korea, the EU and the US, which have condemned North Korea’s force deployment, expressed concern that Moscow could reward Pyongyang with nuclear and ballistic technology.
