Sports

NHL backing bets for March 2: Power play chance


It’s been a few weeks since we learned about a certain NHL support, which is power play. Public testing hasn’t gone well, so the best course of action is to back off and reevaluate.

Well, I’m skipping the scientific test, because Wednesday at the NHL presented a fascinating intersection of data points that support the goal of powering out. Let me explain.

What is Power-Play Score?

Quickly, for those who haven’t tested this prop market, the power play point (later known as PPP) is the assist or goal scored during power play.

Look at Toronto Wednesday

The game we’ve been swinging around for power is Toronto, one of the best stats crossovers I’ve seen in weeks.

Let’s take a look at some of the more traditional numbers first before expanding the study to some next-level analysis.

In their past 20 games, Toronto’s hit-to-play success rate is fourth in the NHL, while Buffalo’s penalty damage is third.

That alone is a stark disparity in quality, suggesting that if the Maple Leafs get a couple of chances on Wednesday, they can capitalize on them.

On a penalties-per-game basis, the Sabers are averaging 13th the most, an above-average mark that suggests Toronto will get this 5-on-4 chance on Wednesday night.

What takes this to the next level is a new layer of information that is currently in use for me.

Today I chatted with a friend who has guided me through a tremendous resource, Natural Statistical Trick. I already know about this site, using it for shot data, but a new statistic shows that I love this game for its strong aim.

The metric here is “Goals Expected Per 60 Minutes (xGF)”, which means how many goals a team can expect in different situations based on shot quality and situation.

The higher the number, the more often a team scores.

Toronto’s XGF ranks second in the league for power play, and Buffalo’s ‘Goals Expected Against’ is also second when it comes to penalty damage.

Pandemic: The stats show that the Leafs should score more points with their power play and Saber should score a lot when taking the free kick.

Approach and recommended bets by players

We’ve determined that Toronto has the power play advantage on Wednesday, now it’s time to load up the right players to score.

For those of you following this test a few weeks ago, we tackled the strategy of betting on each member of the top PP line to score a PPP.

The logic there is that a power play objective will most likely be shared among the three members. As long as the top line scores, we get three of the five correct bets, giving us a profit.

Toronto didn’t score many points in power play, which I see in our favor. We get some solid odds on the Leafs top lane.

I will bet on each, risking 0.2u per player. That adds up to 1 full unit on the top line. The best odds for PPPs in Toronto are on FanDuel.

Tools

  • Auston Matthews PPP (+144)
  • John Tavares PPP (+172)
  • Mitch Marner PPP (+164)
  • William Nylander PPP (+220)
  • Morgan Rielly PPP (+250)

You can vary your approach here, choosing to deposit only one or two of the above, instead, if you agree with the science behind this bet.

This was a stunning Toronto goal on Wednesday night!





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