We made it to draft date! Here at Yardbarker, we’ve been digging into the NFL Draft betting market for weeks, and our day has finally come to see what we’ve found.
Sportsbooks like DraftKings offer a lot of backing bets on drafts, but you need to get in one of these states to bet on action.
Based on rumors, mocking drafts, and gut feelings, I compiled my favorite props for the night. These are meant for fun, in the hope that they make a profit. I would place a fraction of one unit on all of these bets, expecting no more than two units on the night’s chart.
Here’s what stands out to me.
3rd overall pick: Derek Stingley (+150 DK)
There have been many buzz around Derek Stingley towards the Texans here in 3rd. The best stat for me is looking at Ahmad Gardner’s odds in the teammate’s corner to be picked as the first corner.
For weeks, Gardner was around -450 to top the table, and as of the time of this writing, he’s -140. The Texans are in demand across the entire roster and if they believe Stingley can return to his 2019 self, they clearly feel he deserves a pick here at the top of the draft.
I wonder if images of how successful Ja’Marr Chase is after taking a year off will assuage worries about Stingley exploiting his version of himself from that LSU championship.
Overall pick #4: Two options
To me, the New York Jets are the X-factor of this entire draft. Unless the Deebo Samuel trade happens between now and Thursday night, New York will have four picks in the top 38.
General Manager Joe Douglas is quoted saying this “could be really special” and in that report, there seems to be a strong indication that the Jets will go either player with their first pick of the night.
Ikem Ekwonu (+350)
With news of Mekhi Becton potentially coming to the block, the need for settlement has increased within the Jets organization. My feeling is that they prefer to run mauler at Ikem Ekwonu.
Ahmad Gardner (+300)
If they like to play defensively, I have to think that Gardner would be the choice instead of a winger. Surely someone on the Jets will think back to what a locking corner at Darrelle Revis did for their team, and Gardner, to me, seems to be the most complete corner in the draft. The first day starts at the crash site.
Pick Top 5: Evan Neal (+175)
In some ways, including this bet is a barrier to some of the previous outcomes I’ve highlighted. Neal was considered the favorite to hit No.1 for a while, and has since faded from the public eye.
A tackle from one of the best teams in the country is a valuable commodity and 3-5 teams are in demand for the position.
The giants choose fifth, and their need for a processing phase is one of many. If we can beat Ekwonu in 4th place, I think the Giants will tend to pick Neal in 5th place, as they also have seventh pick and could miss out if Carolina goes OT.
Teammate Charles Cross is a favorite to finish fifth (+175), but I think Neal is the better player and safer pick.
First WR picked: Jameson Williams (+175)
As an Eagles fan, I secretly hoped this bet would lose, but I’ve been smitten with Jameson Williams for a while. Just last week I wrote about why i like Williams was the first receiver and his odds last week were +330.
I missed the boat with the best odds, but I think his movement shows you that others are starting to believe in that possibility.
Williams is the fastest ball receiver in this class and had a dominant season for Alabama before tearing his ACL net.
An ACL tear is the only concern, but that injury doesn’t mean it’s ever happened, and reports suggest Williams could be ready in training camp.
For me, this is the receiver with the greatest potential. I know my Eagles are enamored with the receiver and the idea of pairing him with former teammate DeVonta Smith. Their bags are already full, so it might be a trade-off for them to protect him.
Teams like the Falcons and Jets are having a market for picks 8 and 10, and both teams can be patient with Williams, as neither team will be competing for the knockout stages during the off-season. this.
Receiver less than 6.5 wide drafted in first round (-120)
This is my favorite bet of the night and I hope you check it out This article I wrote on Monday broke this prop.
I don’t see us reaching seven receivers wide in Round 1, which is a layer deep where the beginning of Round 2 makes more sense to me.
Skyy Moore drafts under 35.5 (-115)
This is a hedge against the above but I find it valuable. The Skyy Moore is a smaller but very powerful slot receiver from Western Michigan.
I just read raving reviews about the guy and seem to have a home on an NFL offense as a Day One contributor.
Teams with quarterbacks like Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes, who both have two firsts and need receivers, feel like a good landing spot for him.
He’s going to catch the ball and make something happen, I think he’s ahead of this slotted draft position. We may need to wait until Day 2 to know for sure, but like I said, I think there will be a receiver run to start Round 2.
Teams like the Lions and the Jets at the top of the next round might be willing to fall behind with their high picks.
Second Safest Pick: Lewis Cine (+175)
This is a bet on the idea that teams become so enamored with the Georgia defense that someone wants a piece. There will likely be four to six players from the National Championship defense team drafted on Thursday night.
The second safest market seems to be between Dax Hill and Lewis Cine. Sites like PFF was higher on Cine, and I think this has some legs with these odds.
Today is +200 only on Wednesday, so money is starting to pour into Cine.
Let me stress again, don’t go overboard here! These bets are built on rumors and conjecture. They’re educated guesses to give us deep interest on Thursday night. I definitely want to win more than lose, but bet what you can and enjoy the NFL Draft by cashing out!
