It’s been eight weeks since Boeing’s Starliner spacecraft launched into orbit on an Atlas V rocket, bound for the International Space Station. At that time, NASA officials said The two crew members, Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams, could return to Earth as early as June 14, just eight days later.
Yes, there were some issues during the Starliner’s trip to the space station, involving helium leaks and thruster failures. But officials said they were relatively minor and sought to downplay them. “Those are actually pretty minor issues to address,” Mark Nappi, Boeing’s vice president and director of the Commercial Crew Program, said in a press conference after the docking. “We’ll address them for the next mission. I don’t see them as anything significant.”
But days turned into weeks, and weeks into months, as NASA and Boeing continued to work through two technical issues. Of these, the more pressing concern was the failure of the multi-thruster reaction control system, which is essential for steering Starliner during its exit from the space station and setting up a crucial engine burn for re-entry into Earth’s atmosphere.
Over the past few weeks, ground teams from NASA and Boeing have completed thruster testing on the test stand in White Sands, New Mexico. Then, late last week, Boeing and NASA fired up the spacecraft’s thrusters in orbit to test their performance while docked at the space station. NASA said the preliminary results from those tests were encouraging.
Dragons become a real option
A week ago, the last time NASA officials spoke to the media, the agency’s commercial crew program manager, Steve Stich, did not discuss what would happen if NASA concluded that Starliner’s thrusters were not reliable enough for the return trip to Earth.
“Our main choice is to complete the mission” Stich said a week ago“There are many good reasons to complete this mission and bring Butch and Suni home on Starliner. Starliner is designed as a spacecraft to have a crew in the cockpit.”
For a long time, it seemed certain that astronauts would return to Earth inside the Starliner.
However, there’s been a lot of recent activity at NASA, Boeing, and SpaceX that suggests Wilmore and Williams could be returning home on the Crew Dragon spacecraft instead of the Starliner. Given the importance of this mission, Ars is sharing what we know as of Thursday afternoon.
One reliable source said the chances of the crew returning on Dragon are more than 50-50. Another source said the chances of them returning are significantly higher. To be clear, NASA has not made a final decision yet. It probably won’t happen until at least next week. NASA associate administrator Jim Free will likely make the decision.
When asked if the Starliner crew would be more likely to return on Dragon, NASA spokesperson Josh Finch told Ars on Thursday evening, “NASA is evaluating all options to return agency astronauts Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams from the International Space Station as safely as possible. No decisions have been made and the agency will continue to provide updates on its plans.”
Put the puzzle pieces together
Here are some data points that Ars can confidently report based on multiple sources:
- NASA has been delaying the decision. A Flight Readiness Review meeting was scheduled for today, August 1, a few days ago. However, it was canceled. Instead, NASA has made vague blog update “Once Starliner’s reentry planning is complete, which is expected to continue next week, we will share more information about preparations for the agency’s reentry readiness assessment and subsequent briefing,” the agency said Thursday. So it’s possible that briefing will take place next week.
- NASA has issued a Mission Award Worth $266,678 to SpaceX on July 14 to conduct a “special emergency response study.” NASA said the study was not directly related to the Starliner issues, but two sources told Ars that it was indeed related. Although the study involved bringing more than four crew members home on Crew Dragon—a scenario involving Frank Rubio and the Soyuz MS-22 leak—it also allows SpaceX to study flying Dragon home with six passengers, a regular crew in addition to Wilmore and Williams.
- SpaceX has been actively working on a scenario in which two or Four astronauts are set to launch aboard Crew 9. (A normal crew is four.) The mission has a nominal launch date of August 18, but it is likely to be delayed. SpaceX has identified flight suits that will fit Wilmore and Williams, allowing them to fly home on either the Crew-8 spacecraft (currently docked to the space station) or the Crew-9 vehicle. It is unclear how the crews will be assigned to the two return Dragon flights. It is possible that if four astronauts launch aboard Crew 9, five could fly home on each Dragon.
- Two sources told Ars that there was heated discussion at meetings at NASA’s field centers this week about whether to send crews home on Starliner. As of Wednesday, many teams were still “no” on Starliner. It’s unclear how that will be resolved. Some engineers believe that if there are questions about Starliner, NASA should play it safe—flying on Crew Dragon, which has launched safely 13 times and landed 12 times.
The most difficult calls
NASA officials faced a difficult decision. Because there was still at least a small risk of flying Starliner in its current state, the space agency and Boeing tested the thrusters as thoroughly as possible while the spacecraft was docked to the space station. The testing was intended to “minimize” those risks. But while the data was good, it didn’t address all of NASA’s concerns.
So what will the space agency do? Starliner could return safely to Earth. But there seems to be some reasonable doubt that Starliner will return safely. If NASA postpones its backup plan, flying on Dragon, it could end the Starliner program. While Starliner is being developed and tested, the company lost $1.6 billion. Conducting a crewed test mission, which would be necessary if Starliner were to return autonomously, would be much more expensive. Boeing could choose to cancel Starliner, leaving NASA with just one provider of crew transportation. That would be painful for both NASA and Boeing.
But the alternative—Starliner not returning home safely with a crew on board—is far worse. It’s a risk-reward decision that Free, Stich, and other NASA officials will ultimately have to balance in the coming days.
This story originally appeared on Ars Engineering.
