As soon as Mets fans drop their guard and enjoy Timmy Trumpet a bit over the top, we all know what’s going to happen next. The team’s lead in the NL East has dwindled for three weeks, and now after losing three games in a row – two to the Nats and one to the Pirates – New York and Atlanta have drawn. To put this into context, the Mets have been in first place in the NL East since April 12.
In their past 20 games, the Mets are 10-10, offense is good or bad, and have picked days that have been really bad to horribly wrong. Five of the losses have come by a run or two, with a few thrown gems being wasted due to a lack of run assist. Offenders averaged nearly four runs per game during this time period (3.8), but scored four exactly zero runs in the window. Their ERA for over 20? 3.88. That suggests their .500 record is secured.
The Mets fan base conditionally expects the Mets to do the things of the Mets, and so when Max Scherzer left the game against Washington earlier this week after five innings with fatigue on his left side, it was there’s a collective “fuck my life” emanating from Queens. Scherzer since then placed on IL 15 daysthis will only incite more panic.
Original pitcher Chris Bassitt has been a solid 3, and Jacob deGrom looks more like a No. 1 than a No. 2 since finally returning to the field in early August. Taijuan Walker and Carlos Carrasco have been asked to strengthen deGrom all season and each has had a quality start, but playoff baseball requires more than an occasional quality start.
Random bad luck hits are common in baseball, and New York just happens to pick the most inopportune times to have them. The bats will return, and hopefully Scherzer will too. Things are improving on Wednesday, as they’ve managed five runs so far in the first of their Pittsburgh double-day sale.
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The tie atop the NL East is less about the Mets faltering though. Atlanta has lost two series since the start of August, and its only split was a two-game series against the Phillies. They have four sweeps in their past 20 games en route to a 15-5 record. And while the Mets’ staff ERA and run output are essentially a push in that sample size, the Braves’ offensive production (5.95 runs) is doubling up its team ERA (2.65).
Atlanta caught fire in the second half a year ago, and has shown more of the same in 2022, only it didn’t have to dig out of a hole this time around. Every prospect the Braves call up seemingly hits the ground — and everything else — running.
Vaughn Grissom is the latest such player, as the second baseman is hitting .337 with four home runs and 14 RBI since being brought up on Aug. 10. To add some context, and twist the knife a bit, Pete Alonso is hitting .202 with three dingers and 11 RBI since that date ( per StatMuse).
Oh, and let’s not forget Michael Harris II, who has won multiple Rookie of the Month awards (June and August) this season, and is trying to push himself into elite territory.
With a new playoff format – six teams from each tournament with two first-place winners bidding their farewells – the race to win at the NL East is likely to get a ticket to the second round. No one has caught up with the Dodgers for best record in the NL (or baseball for that matter), but even if the Cardinals remain unconscious, they’ll need to close the five-game gap in about a month to get a goal. the rest say goodbye.
NL East’s No. 2 team not only didn’t get a free pass, but also had to outperform the other two Wild-card teams. I don’t know how worried New York should be about Philadelphia – they’re up against the Phillies 14-5 in 2022 – but the franchise behind door #2 is any version of San Diego or Milwaukee won the final playoff berth. The first round is also a five-game format, and the way it’s scheduled won’t allow deGrom and Scherzer to both throw the ball twice (at least not without each throw during the short break).
Waiting for another sticker to drop is a tradition that Mets loyalists know better than anyone else. We’ll see how messy it gets as more information about Scherzer becomes available, but I’m even afraid to ask, “How bad could it really get?” Do you remember 2007 and 2008? Surely the fans will do the same.
