Business

Leading economist on how to prepare for a ‘shallow’ recession


Asset management firm Vanguard predicts the US economy will enter a “shallow” recession later this year. That would increase unemployment, but probably not as much as we do, said Roger Aliaga-Diaz, chief economist for Vanguard, Americas and head of global portfolio construction. common during recessions. The reason, he said, is labor shortages, which will remain a long-term concern given demographic trends that reduce the number of available workers.

Aliaga-Diaz, who joined Vanguard in 2007, studied at the Universidad Nacional de Córdoba in Argentina and earned a doctorate in economics from North Carolina State University. I talk to Barron’s about the economy, his expectations for inflation, and why Vanguard expects international stocks to outperform U.S. stocks.

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