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As the dust settled on Labor’s landslide victory on Friday morning, party strategists took a close look at the election results, warning that such a large majority is a double-edged sword.
Labor won. A landslide with a relatively low vote share — around 34 percent — thanks to tactical voting and a split in right-wing support between the Conservative Party and the UK Reform Party.
Party aides could not hide their joy at winning a general election for the first time in 19 years. But they were also aware that while previous governments might have blamed small majorities or hung parliaments for slow progress, Sir Keir Starmer would not.
They note that winning an overwhelming majority is a double-edged sword when it comes to public expectations of delivering change at a time of tight public finances.
“The problem with having a majority of nearly 200 seats is that people think that’s going to give you a green light to get things done, that there’s a magic wand to get results,” said a senior Labour figure.
“But it doesn’t work like that, you can’t just pass a bill and suddenly the NHS has no financial problems anymore,” they added.
Starmer’s team was caught off guard by the strength of the pro-Palestinian vote in some Muslim areas, leading to lost five seats and nearly scalped two of the party’s most senior figures: Wes Streeting and Jess Phillips. Labour was criticised last year for initially refusing to back a ceasefire in Gaza.
Labour MPs who lost their seats included Jonathan Ashworth, the former director general of budget and a close ally of Starmer, in Leicester South, which has a large Muslim population.
Morgan McSweeneyThe head of the Labour Party’s campaign will conduct a review of the election performance in the coming weeks with the Labour Together think tank to find lessons for the next election in five years’ time.
Starmer’s aides know the party won less than a third of the total vote – fewer than his predecessor Jeremy Corbyn won in the 2017 election when he was defeated, but more effectively distributed across the country.
They also found that the new balance of the House of Commons was strikingly out of step with voting preferences. Left-wing parties now represent 78 percent of the House of Commons, despite winning 57 percent of the vote.
Labour will likely feel pressure from some of its own members, and from the presence of four Greens in parliament, to move to the left. But Starmer’s allies are determined to resist.
“We knew we couldn’t move an inch to the left once we were in power, we were fully aware that it would be politically dangerous,” one said. “Keir was very clear about that in his speech.”
Addressing hundreds of supporters gathered at the Tate Modern after dawn, Starmer said: “We have run a changed Labour party and we will lead as a changed Labour party.”
His words were a deliberate echo of Tony Blair’s promise in his 1997 election victory speech that “we are running as New Labour, we will govern as New Labour”.
The Labour majority will give Starmer a legislated path through parliament, with a King’s Speech scheduled for 17 July that will include the establishment of a Great British Energya new state-owned clean energy company and a jobs reform package.
Starmer will face pressure from within his own Labour Party ranks on a number of issues, for example his insistence that there is no money to reverse the government’s two-child allowance cap, which prevents families from claiming support for more than two children.
Pro-EU MPs may start beating the drum for Britain to rejoin the single market, although Starmer has said that will not happen in his lifetime. But for now at least, these are low-level concerns for the Labour leadership as they find themselves the dominant force in British politics.
There is no example in our memory of a major political party recovering from major defeat to land victory in just five years.
Labour MPs and aides are enjoying their first victory in a long time. “I kept crying, but they were happy tears,” said one staffer.
