In data analysis, there is a concept called “regression to the mean. “In essence, that means the outliers will, over time, shift to more average values – as long as there is a bit of luck involved in the results. Turns out, luck is unreliable, and younordinary values based on it are hard to repeat. The values will slide towards trivial instead.
Related, remember how great Defender used to be?
Old Defender is one of the outliers. It’s big, boxy, rugged, and ancient. Choosing a Defender over something like a Land Cruiser is a determination optionone that a person does with full knowledge in his or her mind of each and every sacrifice that choice entails.
However, despite the sacrifices, the old Defender still has a buyer. No, it has enthusiastic people, hardliners and supporters. People risk meeting the long arm of the law just to get them into the United States, to get a single sweet taste of the British forbidden fruit. It’s weird, it’s unique, and it’ll be remembered forever.
Objectively speaking, the new Defender is better transport. It’s more comfortable, it’s quieter, it gets more miles with less gallons. It retains the off-road functionality of its sibling, but potential buyers need to sacrifice much less to buy one.
Of course, that is why Land Rover has made the change. In business, there is a concept called barriers to entry – all the little hurdles that a person has to overcome before they can buy a product. The new Defender has fewer barriers, less mental barriers between the buyer and their vehicle. Land Rover will sell about a billion of them.
It’s not like what happened to Chevy’s old off-road darling, Blazer. What was once a large, heavy, body-on-frame fronter is now just another compact crossover, lost in a sea of identical market participants. Enthusiasts will complain that the new car doesn’t live up to the legacy of the original, but Chevrolet will sell as many new Blazers as possible.
The company doesn’t care. It’s not here to create something weird, out of the ordinary or unique. It’s here to sell cars and make money, and sell crossovers. As every automaker moves toward mass-market appeal, car design will regress toward the normal.
Of course, for an automaker, that’s fine. Businesses consider their performance with Key Performance Indicators, specific and measurable metrics can be used for an objective assessment of performance. Chevrolet’s KPIs for the Blazer may have nothing to do with pushing the limits of automotive design – the company will measure success with vehicle sales and profit per vehicle.
Those KPIs are applicable to most industries. Land Rover wants to sell Defender just as Chevy wants to sell Blazer. Each will make perfectly rational business decisions to move the company further towards that goal, designing and refining their respective cars to create something with market appeal. as widely as possible. Each will satisfy their respective shareholders with these highly intelligent business decisions and each will reap profits from the choices they have made.
And the two will become more generic with each passing year. Regression towards mean.
The Defender, in the new 130 guise, is now a three-row SUV. In that segment, it compete with everything from Jeep car arrive Toyotas, and Land Rover hopes that the Defender brand cache will pull it ahead of the others. It is very possible. After all, it doesn’t require any of the sacrifices from previous models – it’s objectively a better car. For the company, for the shareholders, and for the huge buyers who would never have considered the previous model to bear that name, it was a step in the right direction.
But for those of us who like novelty, originality, accuracy In our cars, which Defender will we remember in 50 years?
