Kais Saied seeks a new presidency with a candidate in prison

Tunisian President Kais Saied, seen as a savior by his supporters and an autocrat by his critics, will run for re-election on Sunday in a vote he is almost certain to win. win.

More than a dozen politicians had hoped to challenge him, but The election commission only approved two additional names for the ballot.

And one of them, Ayachi Zammel, was sentenced to 12 years in prison for falsifying documents just five days before the election.

Tunisia was the site of the Arab Spring, a series of uprisings against autocratic rulers in North Africa and the Middle East that began in late 2010. The country is considered a beacon of democracy. master for the Arab world.

But since President Saied was elected on a wave of optimism in 2019, the 66-year-old has suspended parliament, rewritten the constitution and concentrated power in his own hands.

This is Tunisia’s third presidential election since Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali was overthrown in 2011. He has been in power for more than two decades before he was forced to flee to Saudi Arabia after months of mass protests.

Sarah Yerkes, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace with expertise in the Middle East, told the BBC that the president had “manipulated the political and legal situation to the point where there is no debate – he is only viable candidate.

There were no campaigns or public debates, and nearly all the campaign posters on the streets were of the president.

Ms Yerkes added that the Tunisian election was “really a referendum on Kais Saied”.

The North African country’s largest opposition party, Ennahda, said its senior members had been arrested at a level never seen before.

New York-based Human Rights Watch reported that authorities disqualified eight other potential candidates from the election through prosecution and imprisonment.

In recent weeks, people have taken to the streets of the capital Tunis to protest President Saied and demand free and fair elections.

Although Zammel, head of the small radical Azimoun party, was jailed for forging voter signatures on his candidacy papers, his name will still appear on the ballot.

He has denied the allegations, Reuters news agency reported.

The other candidate, former lawmaker Zouhair Maghzaoui, had been a supporter of the president’s power grab in 2021 but has since become a critic.

“The Tunisian government is waging a clear pre-election attack on the pillars of human rights,” said Agnès Callamard, secretary general of human rights group Amnesty International.

Ms Yerkes told the BBC that the Tunisian leader had “gradually dismantled decades of democratic progress”.

But he was initially seen in a very different light.

When Saied, a prominent legal scholar, won more than 70% of the presidential vote in 2019, he promised “a new Tunisia.”

Ms Yerkes said he represented “non-elite people in Tunisia” and tried to “be a voice for more marginalized populations”.

A rejuvenated economy and curbing corruption were some of the promises he made after his victory.

When asked what he would do with the economy, he told a local newspaper, he would “empower people with tools”. He did not specify what these tools would be.

Nicknamed “the professor,” he enjoyed enormous support, especially among young people disillusioned by the constant bickering of the political classes.

But in 2021, he initiated what experts describe as a “self-coup” by dissolving parliament and seizing all executive powers.

He justified his actions by saying he needed new powers to break the cycle of political paralysis and economic decline.

That same year, he denied having any autocratic aspirations in an interview with the New York Times when he quoted former French President Charles de Gaulle as saying: “‘Why do you think that, at the age of 67, Shall I begin my career as a dictator?’ ”

Under Saied’s rule, Tunisia fell from 53rd to 82nd place in the Economist Intelligence Unit’s democracy index, a measure of political freedoms and pluralism.

“He returned Tunisia to autocracy,” Ms. Yerkes said.

In addition to Tunisia’s weakening democracy, underemployment is another hot topic. The unemployment rate is at 16%, according to the report World Bank.

The country’s troubled economy has forced many young people to emigrate.

Tunisia is an important departure point for migrants wanting to reach Europe.

UN figures show that at least 12,000 migrants who landed on Italian shores last year have left Tunisia.

Fearing a continued influx of migrants, the European Union reached a deal with Tunisia, giving it $118m (£90m) to stop smuggling, strengthen borders and pay again migrants.

Saied has also adopted a populist approach to attracting support and blaming migrants for the country’s economic problems.

He accused black sub-Saharan migrants of participating in a “conspiracy” to change the country’s demographics, blaming “traitors working for foreign countries.”

This led to a series of racist attacks against black people living in Tunisia.

While his eloquence has attracted some support, there are those who are unhappy with the comments.

Domestic groups organized anti-racism protests in response to his comments.

He has tried to shift blame but “there is no sign that he can turn the economy around,” Ms. Yerkes said.

In his first election manifesto, published shortly after the official campaign began, Saied pledged to strengthen health, transport and social security services after decades of efforts “ eliminate” public institutions.

Saied’s consolidation of power has led to a mood of apathy ahead of the election.

Last year, only 11% of voters went to the polls to elect new members of parliament.

Ms. Yerkes said “it is likely that the number of voters voting this time will also be very low.”

Official results will be announced within three days of the election but it is difficult to doubt the outcome.