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JCPOA 2.0 will be different from its predecessor: Virginia Professor of Technology


A new version of the Iran nuclear deal, also known as the Comprehensive Plan of Action, will be very different from the original, said Djavad Salehi-Isfahani, a professor of economics at Virginia Tech.

Salehi-Isfahani said: “JCPOA version two is very different from version one. Version one is implemented by a moderate government.

Last year, the signatories of the JCPOA began the first of what would become several rounds of talks in Vienna aimed at restoring the agreement since the United States withdrew from the agreement in 2018 under the rule of law. President Donald Trump.

Under the original 2015 deal, made under the Obama administration, Iran would dismantle much of its nuclear program and allow more international inspections in exchange for relief from economic sanctions. . Other world powers, such as Britain, France, Germany, Russia and China, are also signatories.

The current President of Iran, Ebrahim Raisi, is seen as more hardline and anti-Western than his predecessor Hassan Rouhani, who oversaw the signing of the contract in 2015.

The deal “aims to normalize Iran’s relations with the West, [given that] Rouhani’s team and his political establishment – Iran’s modern middle class – is very Western in orientation and opposes Iran’s entry into the Sino-Russian orbit,” the professor added.

“A new JCPOA, if it happens, will be in a very different environment [as] Iran is indeed turning its attention from the West to the East. So it needs another deal. ”

Rotate Iran’s axis to the East

In February 2018, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, before the US withdrew from the JCPOA, indicates preferences “from East to West“is a priority for the country.

“After Trump left the deal, the Supreme Leader made it clear that Iran must pay more attention to the East,” Salehi-Isfahani said.

Under Raisi, Iran sought to deepen ties with Russia and China.

In September last year, Raisi made his first official trip as president of Iran to Tajikistan to attend the summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO).

Iran has observer status in the SCO, a regional security group led by China and Russia.

“After Raisi’s election, Iran pressed to become a member of the SCO… Raisi was [also] visited Moscow twice, and Putin also visited Tehran,” the professor said.

Foreign Ministers of Iran and Russia also consultations held recently in Tehranin response to international condemnation of Russia’s aggression in Ukraine.

Upon taking office, Raisi also reiterates Iran’s commitment to a 25-year comprehensive cooperation program with China.

Obstacle

Although Iran appeared The most optimistic is that it has been During the years of finally reaching an agreement on a new version of the 2015 nuclear deal, a number of important obstacles remain.

The European Union has submitted a “final text” to the deal, but Iranian negotiators have highlighted issues that could prove irreconcilable. For example, Iran wants a guarantee that the deal will be binding, so that no future US administration can abandon an extended agreement.

Reid I’Anson, senior commodities analyst at Kpler, is also skeptical of a resurgence, given what he says are obstacles on the domestic front. He told CNBC’s “Capital connection“Last week, an extended deal was unlikely, given it’s political unpopularity in the United States and a ‘hard-sell relationship’ in Iran.



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