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Jamie Dimon worries about the ‘unusual’ dangers posed by the Ukraine war. ‘I’ll definitely prepare for it to get much worse’


Europe could have been forgiven from one extreme [hotlink ignore=true]this year’s energy crisis, but the head of one of the world’s largest banks is worried about what’s next.

Through the combination of unseasonably warm weather so far this winter and low energy demandEuropean countries seem to have averted this year’s dreaded energy crisis. “This winter, it looks like we’re having a hard time,” IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said in a press conference earlier today.

Of course, he was referring to Russia’s February invasion of Ukraine, which, despite the horrors of armed conflict and the ramifications of Europe’s first major land war since 1945, had caused economic instability when Russian energy companies started operating. restricting the flow of natural gas to Europe.

The worst fears, that Europeans might freeze in their homes or that industry come to a standstill, have subsided as Europe’s gas storages are running low. almost full and promises to meet the demand this winter. But JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon is warning Europeans—and the rest of us—to prepare for a protracted crisis.

“The danger of this war is extraordinary,” Dimon told CBS. Facing the Motherland in one interview aired on Sunday. “This oil and gas thing, it looks like the Europeans will get through this winter. But this oil and gas problem will continue for many years.”

Mr Dimon said the Ukraine war could drag on for years and in the meantime Europe’s energy security would be at risk.

“If I was in government or anywhere else, I would say, ‘I have to prepare for a much worse situation.’ I hope it doesn’t. But I would definitely prepare for a much worse situation,” he said.

However, Dimon has an idea of ​​what might help.

Europe’s energy future

Europe has been able to weather its worst energy crisis so far this winter, although the worst months may still be ahead. The peak heating and energy demand season tends to be around January and February, while December cold temperatures have dropped across the continent this month.

European officials are relying on abundant supply Natural gas is stored in underground locations to help them weather the winter, but experts fear that the worst of the energy crisis will be next yearwhen Russia’s natural gas supplies will even more limited and Europe could face increasing competition from other buyers, including China, where the recent lifting of COVID-19 measures could increased energy demand.

International organizations include the OECD and IMF warned that Europe’s energy crisis could worsen next year and that governments should assess how to protect consumers against high prices. Uncertain supply already available electricity price increase across Europe this year, and Dimon warns they could go even further in the years to come.

“Europeans are terrified. Their energy prices are two, three, four, five times ours, which is hurting consumers, which governments have to do something about and that is hurting businesses. career,” he said. “And it has only just begun. And so the pain and suffering can get so much worse.”

Dimon said that governments and energy companies should focus on investing more in energy infrastructure to protect from a worse crisis next year. He called for a “Marshall Plan for Energy”, alluding to investment program led by then-Secretary of State George Marshall to rebuilding the infrastructure of Western Europe After World War II, a program was great soft power weapon America at the start of the Cold War. Dimon called for support for more investment in both fossil fuels and renewable energy sources, modeled on Marshall’s plan.

“The Marshall Plan for Energy

The war has led to an increase in global investment and an expansion of renewable energy capacity, according to a report. industry forecast published by the IEA last week. The agency predicts that in the next five years there will be as many renewable energy installations as there have been in the past two decades, and solar will overtake coal-generated power by 2027 as initiatives include includes the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act designed to provide significantly recommended for renewable energy projects.

In a report published in October, the agency praised renewables as only a “marginal role” in increasing electricity prices, while finding that natural gas alone accounted for 50% of the increase in electricity generation prices.

But while Dimon acknowledges that many countries are shifting away from fossil fuels to cleaner energy sources, he says governments need “safe, reliable, cheap oil and gas” to keep Low electricity prices and complaints of “underinvestment in oil and gas” could come back to harm economies in two or three years.

“For me – to solve the climate problem – we need all of the above,” he said. “Gas is the best and cleanest way to reduce coal, also the best way to reduce CO2.

“I think we need to call a Marshall Plan on energy, you know, and that has to be all of the above, and all the people involved,” he added.

Dimon’s statement echoes recent warnings by oil-exporting member states OPEC has called for underinvestment in fossil fuels “one of the biggest challenges the industry is currently facing.” While testifying before Congress in September, Dimon criticize US energy policy aims to promote underinvestment in oil and gas projects. “Investing in the oil and gas complex is great for reducing CO2 emissions,” he said, calling for regulations that can keep energy supplies secure while continuing to expand renewables.

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com

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