More than a few Democrats were a little confused about my Friday report on gerrymandering, which Debate that Democrats are not at a significant structural disadvantage in the House race.
I understand why Democrats don’t like to read that the obstacles they face – especially unjust obstacles – are not so bad. But underneath what some might read is dismissing the gravity of gerrymandering as a kernel of good news for Democratic readers: Republican control of the House of Representatives is not a conclusion. ignored.
No, I’m not saying Democrats are favored. The most likely scenario is still that the Republicans will find the five seats they need to take control. And no one should be surprised if the Republican Party exposes more than that – especially given the early signs that political winds may be starting to shift in ways that could benefit some people. Republicans in key races (more tomorrow).
Still, the idea that Democrats could hold the House of Representatives isn’t as absurd, illusory, or far-fetched as it was before the Dobbs ruling that overthrew Roe v. Wade. It’s a real possibility – not some abstraction in the sense that anything can happen.
In fact, it doesn’t take much to happen.
If the polls are “right” and Election Day happens today, the battle for the House will be very close. It will be a battle between each region for control, one in which the race can find the strengths and weaknesses of each candidate and campaign. With a few lucky break points, the Democrats could take the lead.
Status of midterm elections 2022
As the primaries close, both parties are shifting their focus to the November 8 general election.
Those are two huge “ifs”, of course. But with five weeks to go until the election, those “ifs” are not good reasons to justify eliminating the race for the House.
How is this possible? It’s simpler than you think. Democratic Party member hold a narrow lead On the general congressional ballot, a poll asks whether voters prefer Democrats or Republicans to Congress. If Republicans don’t have a solid structural advantage, as I wrote last Friday, why aren’t Democrats at least incapable of competing in the race for Congress? In theory, the Democrat’s disadvantage is relative to their disadvantage in the Senate – which most people agree that Democrats have a good chance of holding this cycle.
Of course, the reason we think the Democrats can overcome their obstacles in the Senate is because we have dozens of polls in key Senate races. Thanks to those polls, we know that Democrats lead in Pennsylvania and Arizona, which we might have assumed would otherwise be overturned. By contrast, we don’t know if Democrats have the lead in equivalent House races: Almost no polls in the House are nonpartisan, and they span many other races. .
But if Democrats can do what they appear to be doing in the Senate, there’s no reason to think they haven’t been able to do something similar in the House. If we had as many polls in the House as we do in the Senate, perhaps the Democrats would also lead in the race for the House.
On this point, House Republicans’ decision to pull ads in Ohio’s 9th District should be put on hold. The county voted for former President Donald J. Trump by three percentage points in 2020; it was redrawn to defeat the longtime Democratic incumbent, Marcy Kaptur. But the Republican Party nominated JR Majewski, a candidate to stop distorted his military service for good measure. Republican Party Canceled almost $1 million for scheduled ads.
Majewski could eventually win, but this is exactly the kind of story we see playing out in the Senate – weak Republican candidates failing to take advantage of their fundamental advantage. , with well-funded Democratic candidates in positions to pounce. The district is now featured as “lean democracy” according to the Cook Politics Report.
I asked my friend Dave Wasserman, editor of the Cook Political Report, do you think Democrats will appear to be in the lead in today’s race for the House of Representatives if there are strong median polls in every district, like in the Senate. He said they would, with Democrats leading the polls “probably 220 to 225 seats,” more than the 218 needed for a majority.
The sporadic nonpartisan House poll we conducted was very compelling. These polls don’t say much about any particular county (with the exception of Alaska’s At-Large, another race where Republicans might be. deprive what little remains of their structural advantage). But on average, Democrats are 3.9 points behind President Biden – a number that is essentially in line with a binding national vote (Biden won 4.5 points in 2020) – across 29 counties. , which has had polls since August 1 .
In the end, most analysts – including Mr. Wasserman and myself – still think Republicans are favored to win the House. In this national environment, it wouldn’t be surprising if polls tend to lean Republican over the next few weeks. If they don’t, we’ll worry that polls are about to start again. That’s not just because the polls have underestimated Republicans in recent cycles, but also because the long history of out-of-party success in the midterm elections weighs heavily on our thinking. .
But until or unless the polls move more clearly in favor of the GOP, there is no reason to dismiss the prospect of a Democratic House of Representatives. No more.
