When Benjamin Netanyahu takes the podium at the United Nations General Assembly on Friday, observers expect that he will respond to a US-led proposal for a three-week ceasefire to end the conflict escalation between Israel and Hizbollah.
Instead, the Israeli prime minister gave one of his most bellicose speeches, vowing to continue “to weaken Hizbollah until all our goals are achieved” and saying that “they have put missiles everywhere.” [Lebanese] kitchen. One rocket in every garage.”
Less than two hours later, Mr. Netanyahu ordered Israel’s largest attack on the southern suburbs of Beirut, a Hizbollah stronghold but also one of the most populous areas of the Lebanese capital. The target was Hassan Nasrallah, the 64-year-old cleric who has led Hizbollah for more than three decades.
There was no word from Hizbollah as Israeli warplanes poured into Lebanon, unleashing a wave of devastating attacks across the country. Rescuers worked through the night searching through the rubble of six neighborhoods flattened by Israeli bombs in Dahiyeh, a southern suburb of Beirut, where Israeli spies appeared to have located Nasrallah’s wisdom.
On Saturday, Hizbollah announced that Nasrallah had died.
For nearly a year, Israel’s primary goal has been to destroy Hamas, the Palestinian militant group in Gaza that sparked a wave of hostility in the region with its October 7 attack. But in just a few weeks, it has unleashed a series of heavy blows on Hizbollah after shifting its focus to the northern front with deadly impact.
Netanyahu needs a victory as the grim anniversary of October 7 approaches. His far-right government has been in Hizbollah’s sights since the Iran-backed group began firing rockets across the Lebanon-Israel border in a show of solidarity with the Palestinian group, a day after a Hamas attack . And he has faced growing domestic pressure to ensure northern Israel is safe for more than 60,000 displaced Israelis to return to their homes.
In the early days of the conflict, the Biden administration had to intervene to prevent Israel from launching a pre-emptive strike against Hizbollah. Washington fears this will cause a broader regional war.
Hizbollah is arguably a much more formidable enemy than Hamas. It is considered one of the world’s most heavily armed non-state organizations, with a huge arsenal of precision-guided missiles that can strike across Israel. It is also by far Iran’s most important proxy force, increasing the risk that an all-out war with Hizbollah could draw in Iran.
For months, Israel and Hizbollah exchanged fire daily with increasing intensity, but most of it was concentrated in the border area.
Nasrallah repeatedly signaled that he did not want to be drawn into a full-blown conflict with the best-equipped military in the Middle East. However, he emphasized that Hizbollah will not refrain from attacks on Israel as long as Israeli forces are fighting Hamas in Gaza.
The US has pushed for such a diplomatic solution but an overall ceasefire remains elusive. It is also impossible to separate the two fronts.
Meanwhile, Netanyahu is planning to raise the stakes with a wave of escalating attacks this month, underscoring the extraordinary depth and reach of Israel’s intelligence network in Lebanon and the extent to which Hizbollah has been violated.
First, it causes panic and chaos within the ranks of Hizbollah last week by targeting the heart of the group’s communications network. One day, the group’s pagers simultaneously exploded across Beirut and other parts of Lebanon, injuring thousands on the front lines, in shops, cafes and private homes. The next day, the walkie-talkie exploded.
Israel continues to attack a residential building in the southern suburbs of Beirut as several top Hizbollah military commanders hold a secret face-to-face meeting. The Israeli army killed Hizbollah’s special operations commander, Ibrahim Aqil, along with the man it claimed was a “senior commander of the Radwan Force,” an elite unit.
The attacks, part of what Israel described as a “new phase” of the war against Hizbollah, prompted the US, France and their allies to make a new effort to achieve a ceasefire on the ground. northern battle.
But almost immediately after the initiative was announced Wednesday, members of Netanyahu’s ruling coalition poured cold water on the proposal, insisting Israel would continue to fight.
Nasrallah gambled on pursuing a war of attrition with a far superior enemy from the moment Hizbollah opened fire on Israel on October 8. But that strategy backfired spectacularly, causing causing huge losses to his militant group and plunging Lebanon into conflict.
With Nasrallah’s death, Israel gained its largest scalp since the conflict broke out.
A key question is whether Iran, which has made clear its desire to avoid a full-blown conflict with Israel and the United States, will show restraint after such a painful blow to its closest ally. Are not. Nasrallah is one of the most influential and consequential leaders in the so-called axis of resistance.
But the Islamist regime’s ultimate goal is the survival of the republic, so it may choose to avoid direct confrontation with Israel. However, there are other militant groups in the axis, including Houthi rebels in Yemen and militias in Iraq and Syria, that could be mobilized to step up attacks on Israel.
For Lebanon, a country shattered by years of economic and political turmoil even before October 7, it meant even more painful uncertainty and instability.
Hizbollah represents a large segment of Shia society in a country where countless Muslim and Christian sects coexist uneasily. It is embedded in Lebanese society, with its vast economic and social networks and a powerful political party. The carnage by the country’s military wing has brought fear and confusion, but there are few answers about what will happen next.
History shows that when one warrior is killed, another is ready to rise. But can it maintain its discipline? Will it fragment? Will it become more extreme? Will their remaining commanders roll the dice and throw everything they have at Israel to avenge their comrades and prove that the group is still standing?
“Nasrallah has been the central shaper of Lebanon over the past three decades. His assassination would not only reshape Hizbollah but also take Lebanon into more unknown territory, said Emile Hokayem, regional security director at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.
“Much will depend on how much of the leadership structure remains and whether they will decide to throw what is left at Israel or redirect the remaining energy and anger internally.”
