Is Windows 10 too popular?

Like every modern version of Windows, Windows 10 follows a 10-year support lifecycle. That means most editions of Windows 10 — Home, Pro, Pro Workstation, Enterprise, and Education — will reach end of support on October 14, 2025. (For details on how that date is calculated, see “When will Microsoft stop supporting your version of Windows or Office?”)

So what happens when that day comes? Nothing. Seriously, absolutely nothing happens on that day. Your Windows 10 PC will continue to function as normal and will continue to do so indefinitely.

Also: Still have a Windows 10 PC? You have 5 options before support ends next year

However, from that date on, those PCs will no longer receive security fixes through Windows Update unless their owners Pay Microsoft to subscribe to Extended Security Updates (ESU)However, on Windows 10 PCs without ESU enrollment, any security vulnerabilities found from that date onward will remain unpatched, leaving those PCs increasingly vulnerable to online attacks.

There is at least one exception to this cutoff date, which applies to PCs running Windows 10 Enterprise Long Term Servicing editions. In total, Microsoft has released four of these editions. The 2015 Long Term Servicing (LTSB) branch ends support on October 14, 2025, along with the editions described earlier. The 2016 LTSB release ends support a year later, on October 13, 2026. Starting in 2019, the name has changed to Long Term Servicing Channel (LTSC). For Windows 10 Enterprise LTSC 2019, the end date is January 9, 2029.

Surprisingly, Windows 10 Enterprise LTSC 2021 only has a five-year support lifecycle, meaning it will reach end of support on January 12, 2027.

If someone tells you they know the answer to this question, why don’t you stop listening to them?

Microsoft can give precise estimates based on telemetry data, but we’re forced to guess based on fragmented third-party numbers.

Also: How to install Windows 11 the way you want (and avoid Microsoft’s restrictions)

One of the sources I have relied on over the years is the US Government. Digital Analysis Program (DAP)has a well-organized archive of information about traffic to official websites run by agencies such as the Postal Service, the National Institutes of Health, the National Weather Service, the IRS, and NASA.

When I visited DAP last week, I pulled data for the 30 days ending August 31, 2024, summarizing over 1.6 billion visits to those sites from desktop and mobile users worldwide. Here’s what the data tells me about visits from PCs and Macs:

That’s the real question, isn’t it?

Despite predictions of an imminent PC market collapse, OEMs continue to sell more than 200 million new Windows PCs each year. In the most optimistic scenario, every new PC sold next year will replace a Windows 10 device that will then be retired, with around 100 million older PCs being replaced by Chromebooks, iPads, and Macs. It’s possible that some older PCs will simply be retired and not replaced at all, as consumers decide to use their phones or tablets instead.

Also: Best Computers: Compare Laptops, Macs, PCs, and More

That best-case scenario still leaves hundreds of millions of users running Windows 10 when the end of support date hits in October 2025. Who owns those PCs?

• Those who are not eligible for automatic upgrade. Some people have older hardware that doesn’t meet the minimum hardware compatibility standards for Windows 11. That basically means any PC built in 2018 or earlier. Note that this category includes many budget PCs that use older designs and unsupported CPUs but were sold as new in 2019 and 2020.

• Business PCs are standardized on Windows 10. A large number of enterprise IT managers have just completed their migration to Windows 10 in the past year or two and probably don’t want to do it again.

• Windows 10 loyalists. From reading the support forums, I know that there are a lot of longtime Windows users who are unhappy about the changes in Windows 11. Some will be reluctant to upgrade, but others will not.

It’s certainly possible, and there’s precedent for that in the experience of Windows XP, which ended support in April 2014, more than 12 years after it was first released. Windows XP users even received emergency security updates after that official end date, to address WannaCry vulnerability in 2017 and a similar bug in 2019. Likewise, Microsoft released an emergency security update for Windows 7 in 2021 after official support ends.

Also: For Windows 11 setup, which type of user account should you choose? How to decide

But it’s more likely that Microsoft will ask Windows 10 users to pay for Extended Security Updates instead of offering them for free.

Of course, in both cases, customers running a soon-to-be-outdated version of Windows have the option to upgrade to the new version. Indeed, that’s Microsoft’s recommendation. official website about end of product support:

When a product reaches the end of its support period or a service is discontinued, there will be no new security updates, non-security updates, or supported support. Customers are encouraged to migrate to the latest version of the product or service.

For Windows 10, however, that workaround may not be available. Devices that don’t meet the hardware compatibility requirements won’t have a Microsoft-supported migration path to a newer version. As I pointed out, The last time I looked at this issueOwners of perfectly functioning PCs, some just five or six years old, will instead have the following options:

• Install a non-Microsoft operating system. Maybe 2026 will be the year that the desktop computer Linux finally takes holdalthough that is unlikely to happen. ChromeOS is flexible may be another option, but it has its own Hardware compatibility required That may make it incompatible with older hardware.

• Ignore Microsoft’s warning and upgrade to Windows 11. There are options to Install Windows 11 on “incompatible” hardwarebut they require a fair amount of technical expertise. People who cling to old computers because they can’t afford new ones may not have that expertise and may not even realize that the option is available. I doubt many businesses would be willing to risk the support issues that come with that approach.

• Keep running Windows 10 and hope for the best. History shows this is the most viable option.

Microsoft and its OEM partners want owners of those devices to throw them in the landfill and buy a new PC running Windows 11. However, my experience with PC owners, especially older people on fixed incomes, is that they will use those devices until they stop working. Those PCs will be vulnerable to cyberattacks like Want to Cryhas had a dramatic effect on the large number of Windows 7 computers still in use three years after the operating system’s end of support.

Also: This Secret Windows 11 Setting Lets You Shut Down Unresponsive Apps Much Faster

That incident was a public relations nightmare for Microsoft, and a repeat would damage the company’s reputation even more. That’s why Microsoft has offered paid options to extend support for Windows 10 for three years. Customers in enterprise and education deployments will likely take advantage of those options.

However, consumers will likely have to take responsibility themselves.