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Campaign posters for President Nicolás Maduro dominate the Venezuelan capital. There are barely any opposition banners to be seen, but opinion polls predict a crushing defeat for the authoritarian leader.
The contrast between the government’s tight grip on power and the opposition’s belief that it can finally win after 25 years has made Venezuela’s July 28 presidential election particularly tense and unpredictable.
In contrast to other recent elections, the main opposition groups have united behind a single candidate, 74-year-old retired diplomat Edmundo González. They hope that a deep hunger for change will lead them to a victory so big that the government will have no choice but to concede defeat.
Despite his efforts to portray himself as a cheerful person on social media, Maduro remains deeply unpopular after years of leading a country through economic crisis, political repression and the exodus of about a quarter of the population.
Most polls suggest the opposition would crush Maduro by a margin of 20 to 30 points in a fair vote. But few believe he would be willing to concede such a result when so much is at stake.
The United States has sanctioned the Venezuelan president and his inner circle and indicted them on drug trafficking charges. The International Criminal Court is considering a case for crimes against humanity. Senior Venezuelan officials who benefit from rampant corruption fear retribution.
“Maduro has no good options at this point,” said Geoff Ramsey, a Venezuela expert at the Atlantic Council. “The worst he can do is ban the opposition and hold a sham election, but that would likely trigger an international backlash.”
This week, Maduro stoked tensions by speaking of a “bloodbath” and “civil war” if the opposition wins, while also predicting “irreversible results” that would see him win next week’s vote from Sunday.
General Domingo Hernández Lárez, the armed forces’ chief of operations, posted a video on X showing his troops training with batons and tear gas.
González, a moderate with no previous political career, attempted to calm the political situation by promising to negotiate an orderly transition and not retaliate if he won the election.
But many in the ruling party remain fearful of María Corina Machado, the charismatic opposition leader who chose González as her candidate after she was barred from running. Machado has moderated her stance but has previously been a fierce critic of the government. She has been repeatedly harassed by security forces and 21 of her campaign staff have been arrested.
Machado has warned that only a “massive fraud” could prevent the opposition from winning.
International powers hope to influence the outcome. The United States eased some sanctions on Venezuela last year as a move to encourage elections, and has signaled in secret conversations with Caracas that “anything is possible” if Maduro and his inner circle agree to leave power after losing the election, according to people familiar with the talks.
Russia, China and Iran — key allies of Maduro — will hope the status quo continues.
The continued belligerence of senior Venezuelan officials, who regularly denounce the opposition as dangerous fascists, has made the run-up to the election particularly tense.
There is no guarantee that the election will go ahead as scheduled. An excuse could be found to delay it. The government could ban González before the vote. Or it could manipulate the results.
“Assuming the polls are accurate, Maduro has one of two options,” said Mark Feierstein, who served as President Obama’s top Latin America adviser. “Either he concedes defeat … or he represses, but that’s not as easy as people think. If turnout is as high as expected, the results are clear, and people are out celebrating, that will change the dynamic.”
Fraudulent elections also pose other risks. Many in the government want to see sanctions lifted and Venezuela’s international isolation ended, which would be impossible with a fake result. No one knows whether underpaid, low-level soldiers will follow orders to suppress protests, or whether members of Maduro’s inner circle will break ranks.
Few observers believe that a disputed election will result in a smooth vote count and the National Electoral Council (CNE) declaring an opposition victory.
“The best-case scenario is for the government to suspend the vote count in case the opposition wins and start negotiations,” said a Venezuelan with deep knowledge of the electoral system.
But the person added: “This is shaping up to be a train wreck… Neither side seems willing to concede victory to the other.”
