Iran will hold a second round of presidential elections on Friday after no candidate attracted more than half the votes in a poll marred by record low turnout.
The second round will give voters a clear choice between a reformist who promises to improve relations with the West and ease social restrictions, and a hardliner intent on consolidating the power of conservatives.
According to the Interior Ministry, Masoud Pezeshkian, a reformist former health minister, won 42% of the votes announced on Saturday while Saeed Jalili, a regime stalwart who is the most ideologically hardline of the three conservative candidates, won 38%.
But turnout of just 40% will dominate political discussions ahead of the runoff, with no voters sending rebukes to both reformists and hardliners Snakes in the Islamic Republic.
Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said on Friday that high voter turnout was “absolutely necessary” and that “the sustainability, stability, honor and dignity of Iran in the world” depended on the people’s vote.
The election comes at a crucial time for the regime amid rising tensions with the West over the Israel-Hamas war and Tehran’s expanding nuclear program. The republic is also preparing for the eventual succession when Khamenei, 85, dies.
The emergency vote was held after hardline President Ebrahim Raisi, a cleric and potential successor to Khamenei, died in a helicopter crash last month.
Reformist politicians were invigorated by the administration’s surprise decision to allow Pezeshkian to run after the 2021 presidential election and this year’s parliamentary polls saw Leading reformist and centrist candidates were barred from competing.
But many voters who usually support a moderate candidate are increasingly disillusioned with their leaders, angered by economic instability, social restrictions and the country’s isolation from the West. West. They have abandoned the notion that change can come from within the regime and do not want to be seen as legitimizing the theocracy through the ballot box.
The mood darkened after the 2021 presidential election that brought Raisi to power, with many believing the outcome was predetermined as leading reformers were prevented from competing. Voter turnout in that election was 48%, the lowest in a presidential election since the 1979 Islamic revolution.
The following year, mass anti-regime protests erupted after Mahsa Amini, 22, died in police custody after being arrested for allegedly not wearing a headscarf properly. This year, social media campaigns have urged people not to vote, saying it would be a betrayal of those killed in the crackdown on protests.
As a result, not voting has become a form of silent protest against the regime in a country with a young population.
“Iranian society has changed completely since 2022 [since the Amini protests],” Mohammad-Reza Javadi-Yeganeh, a sociologist, said in a post on X. “Neither the theoretical framework nor previous public opinion polling methods are capable of understanding society new.”
Reformist politicians will cling to the hope that in the runoff election between Pezeshkian and Jalili, more Iranians will be mobilized to vote.
Pezeshkian, 69, has promised to revive talks with the United States to resolve Tehran’s nuclear tensions with the West and secure sanctions relief, while also saying he will ease restrictions society, including a more relaxed stance towards the compulsory wearing of headscarves for women.
But Jalili, 58, will bet that his chances are strengthened now that he is the only hardliner running and hopes that conservatives will unite around him.
Typically, hard-line candidates drop out of the race to rally behind the front-runner just before voters go to the polls. This time, however, neither Jalili nor Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the other leading hardline candidate trailing in third place, wanted to resign despite pressure from within their own camp, splitting the vote. conservative vote.
Ghalibaf threw his weight behind Jalili after the results were announced.
If Jalili wins, analysts warn he would enforce social restrictions more strictly and be more hostile to any engagement with the US or other Western powers.
While Pezeshkian and Ghalibaf suggested they would be open to negotiations with the West, Jalili told supporters he would “use existing economic potential to make the enemy regret imposing measures punishment”. [on Iran]”.
Although important foreign policy and domestic decisions are made by the supreme leader, the president can still influence the tone of the government both within the republic and in foreign affairs.
But the challenge for Pezeshkian will be to convince wary Iranians that he can make a difference as president in a system where the supreme leader has ultimate authority and the centers of authority Elected and unelected hardliners, including the elite Revolutionary Guard, have significant influence on domestic and foreign policy.
“We don’t see any reason to vote,” said Saba, a 22-year-old student. “No one can change things, they [the president] is just a small part of a big circle and no one can change it”.
