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Iran Protests Fueled by Sickly Economy


When Nader, a 41-year-old construction company worker in Tehran, buys groceries, he constantly adjusts his list as he wanders the aisles, double-checking prices and counting them into his budget. mine. His shopping cart continues to shrink as inflation soars: A year ago, he gave up red meat, then chicken.

Now that Nader’s savings have run out and rent has doubled, even cheese and eggs have become luxuries.

In a phone interview, Nader said: “I can’t keep up with rising prices, no matter how far I run.” “Our request is for the government to fix the economy, understanding that we are breaking under financial pressure.”

Nader, like tens of thousands of Iranians participating nationwide anti-government protests over the past two weeks, there are many grievances to choose from: skyrocketing prices, high unemployment, corruption, political repression and the law requires women to casual dress and cover their hair. That last problem caused unrest when a young woman, Mahsa Aminidied two weeks ago in the custody of the ethics police.

But the unfortunate state of Iran’s economy is one of the main drivers of Iranians taking to the streets to demand change.

Feeling frustrated at the failure of successive administrations to improve the economy, protesters chanted, “Death to the dictator,” calling for an end to hard-line clerical leadership. the rigidity and inflexibility of Iran and the Islamic Republic it built.

Economic desperation is one of the factors that unites opponents and advocates of government. Abdolreza Davari, a conservative analyst, denounced the recent protests in a tweet last week, but admitted that 95% of Iranians, regardless of their political views, are “worried about their livelihoods now and for the future of themselves and their children”.

Decades of mismanagement and corruption, plus two stifling rounds of US-led sanctions aimed at curbing Iran’s nuclear and missile programs, coupled with the pandemic, have frozen Iran’s economy. at pre-2012 levels or worse.

Iranians who have spent the past several years slashing budgets, rushing to work and delaying marriage and children are angry – generally angry at their leaders, whom they regard. is responsible for the mismanagement of the economy.

Middle-class Iranians have had to reshape their lives. Many working-class people are falling below the poverty line. Businesses and livelihoods are going up; Rents have increased many times over. Foreign products and brands are disappearing from stores or becoming increasingly expensive. Iranian rial lost too much value that Iran has introduced a new unit in terms of currency, toman, is basically to drop four zeros on the bills that Iranians carry in stacks for their daily shopping.

Young Iranians with an education cannot find jobs that match their qualifications. Amir, 24, is an architecture graduate student, selling clothes in a shopping mall in Tehran. Most of his classmates from technical school are working as salesmen or taxi drivers, he said. (Like other Iranians interviewed for this article, he asked not to use his last name for fear of retaliation.)

Living with his parents because he couldn’t afford the rent, he said he couldn’t imagine having to rent an apartment, buy a car, get married or have children.

“For most of us, ordinary milestones in life seem like distant dreams,” says Amir. “Perhaps the only way out is to leave Iran.”

In 2015, there was a ray of optimism after Iran reach an agreement with the United States and other world powers to limit its nuclear program in exchange for sanctions.

Several foreign investments and partnerships are underway. But in 2018, before the economy had a chance to recover, President Donald Trump pulled out of the nuclear deal and imposed a “maximum pressure policy” of heavy-handed sanctions, targeting oil sales and international financial transactions. Most foreign companies withdraw from Iran due to fears of secondary US sanctions.

Esfandyar Batmanghelidj, founder of Bourse & Bazaar, a research group specializing in Iranian politics and economics, said: “Iranians don’t really see if they are better than last year. “Basically, what is weighing on everyone is that the country has been stagnant for almost a decade.” He says people are asking, “Why hasn’t our economic well-being meaningfully improved in a decade?”

The discontent caused by soaring prices and the stagnation of the economy has led to Demonstration against the government in 2017 and 2019, most are in the working class and lower income areas. Some protesters called for the overthrow of Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and were violently suppressed.

Inflation rose at 30, 40, then 50 percent. Iranians now pay about 75% more for food than they did a year ago. Iran’s Ministry of Labor and Social Services said in an August 2021 report that one in three Iranians, or nearly 30 million people, lives in poverty.

Houri, 60, a retired government employee in Tehran, says that with her fixed income, she has to think twice before engaging in routine activities like visiting her sister across town. She said two round-trip taxi rides a week and a third of her pension is gone. At family gatherings that are increasingly rare, once lavish parties are reduced to tea and simple cookies.

“We are going through with a lot of difficulties,” she said. “Every supermarket trip is a struggle.”

The growing misery – and increasingly bleak prospects – led to an exodus of people from Iran. Although the well-educated Iranians used to leave the country Since the Islamic Revolution of 1979, this trend has accelerated amid the economic downturn and Pandemic caused by covid-19. Iranian medical workers and young people who leave to study abroad and stay there are particularly likely to abandon Iran.

As new sanctions take effect, Iran’s leaders remain defiant, claiming the birth of a “resistance economy” will make the country more self-sufficient and less dependent on imports. import and sell oil. The government invests in domestic industries, urging Iranians to buy locally. It also continues to evade sanctions by selling its oil to China at a discount.

Such measures have helped the economy slow down, growing more than 4% in 2021. Inflation has slow down a bit in recent months.

But for many Iranians, that doesn’t do much to make up for the years chaos and suffering. Many have lost confidence in the system as successive rounds of elections have failed to deliver the political, economic and social reforms they demanded, leading them to oppose their only option.

President Ebrahim Raisi, a radical conservative who took office last year after an election in which most other possible candidates were eliminated, was promised to bring inflation down to single digits within a few years, kickstart growth and create nearly two million jobs by March 2023. Many economic analysts say his plan of “economic surgery” has led to more inflation and reduced purchasing power.

To analysts and many Iranians, one way to improve the economy seems clear: Revive the nuclear deal with the West.

But with Iran and the United States still haggling terms, it remains unclear whether an agreement will ever be reached. Every announcement of progress or deadlock in the talks triggers currency fluctuations, a barometer for Iran’s optimism.

Analysts say a new deal would quickly benefit the country: billions of dollars in overseas oil revenues would not be frozen, and its oil and gas could be sold on the global market. But for ordinary Iranians, economic prosperity still requires overcoming systemic corruption and mismanagement.

Some in Tehran say the advantages of a deal are worth grasping, especially at a time when Iran has shown it can withstand harsh sanctions. But the government seems in no hurry to strike an agreement without securing substantial concessions.

“What the nuclear deal is going to do is bring in some really obvious economic benefits,” said Henry Rome, deputy head of research at risk consultancy Eurasia Group, which specializes in Iran. and give the government considerable breathing space. Still, he said, Iran “is trying to do without it, and predictably, that’s a pretty significant cost, even if they can get through it for the time being.”

Meanwhile, ordinary Iranians are suffering.

For about a year now, protests have broken out lack of water in Isfahan and Khuzestan and more price staples like pasta, bread and cooking oil. (Those things only ended when the government rushed to start providing cash.) Teachers, public sector workers, bus drivers and market traders all protested over pensions and payments. or prices in the past year.

When news of Amini’s death, many Iranians were ready to protest again.

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