WASHINGTON — New intelligence reviewed by U.S. officials shows that a pro-Ukrainian group carried out an attack on the Nord Stream pipelines last year, a step toward determining responsibility for an act The act of sabotage has puzzled investigators on both sides of the Atlantic for months.
US officials say they have no evidence President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine or his top lieutenants were involved in the operation, or that the perpetrators were acting at the direction of any government official. Which Ukraine.
The brazen attack on natural gas pipelines linking Russia to Western Europe has fueled public speculation as to who the perpetrators were, from Moscow to Kyiv and London to Washington, and it remains one of the most unsolved mysteries in the long history of Russia. war in Ukraine.
Ukraine and its allies have been considered by some officials to have the most reasonable incentive to attack the pipelines. They have opposed the project for years, calling it a national security threat because it would allow Russia to sell gas more easily to Europe. Ukrainian government and military intelligence officials say they played no role in the attack and do not know who carried out it.
US officials say there is much they don’t know about the perpetrators and their organization. A review of newly obtained intelligence indicates they are rivals to President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, but does not specify the members of the group, or who directed or paid for the operation. US officials declined to disclose the nature of the intelligence, how it was obtained or any details about the strength of the evidence it contained. They have said that there is no firm conclusion on it, leaving open the possibility that the operation may have been carried out off-the-books by a proxy force connected to the Ukrainian government or security services. of this country.
Some early US and European speculation focused on possible Russian guilt, particularly given its ability to operate under the seas, although it is unclear what motives the Kremlin has would have in sabotaging the pipelines because they are an important source of income and a vehicle for Moscow to do so. influence in Europe. An estimate gives the cost of repairing the pipes starting from approx 500 million USD. US officials said they did not find any evidence of Russian government involvement in the attack.
Officials who reviewed the intelligence said they believed the saboteurs were most likely Ukrainian or Russian nationals, or some combination of both. US officials said no US or British nationals were involved.
The pipes have ripped apart by deep-sea explosions in September, in what US officials at the time described as an act of sabotage. European officials have publicly said they believe the operation against Nord Stream may be state-sponsored, possibly because the perpetrators had sophisticatedly planted and detonated explosives on the bottom of the Baltic Sea without was discovered. U.S. officials have not publicly stated that they believe the operation was funded by a state.
The explosives were most likely installed with the help of experienced divers, who do not appear to work for the military or intelligence agencies, US officials have reviewed new intelligence for know. But it is possible that the perpetrators have had specialized government training in the past.
Officials say there are still major gaps in how American spy agencies and their European counterparts know about what happened. But officials say it may be the first major clue to emerge from several closely guarded investigations, the conclusions of which could have profound implications for the pro-Ukrainian coalition.
Any hint of Ukraine’s involvement, whether directly or indirectly, could upset the fragile relations between Ukraine and Germany, undermining the support of the German public, who have swallowed high energy prices in the name of solidarity.
U.S. officials, who had been briefed on the intelligence, were divided over the magnitude of the new information’s impact. They all spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss classified intelligence and sensitive diplomatic issues.
US officials say the new intelligence report has increased their optimism that US spy agencies and their partners in Europe can find more information that could allow them to expose draw definite conclusions about the culprit. It’s not clear how long that process will take. American officials recently discussed the intelligence with their European counterparts, who were at the forefront of investigating the attack.
A CIA spokesman declined to comment. A spokesman for the White House National Security Council referred questions about the pipelines to European authorities, who are conducting their own investigations.
Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2, as the two pipelines are known, stretch 760 miles from the northwest coast of Russia to Lubmin in northeastern Germany. The first project cost more than 12 billion USD to build and was completed in 2011.
Nord Stream 2 costs slightly less than the first pipeline and is due to be completed in 2021, in the face of opposition from officials in the US, UK, Poland and Ukraine who, among others, who warned that it would increase Germany’s dependence on Russian gas. In a future diplomatic crisis between the West and Russia, these officials argue, Moscow could blackmail Berlin by threatening to cut off gas supplies, on which the Germans depend so much, especially especially during the winter months. (Germany stopped being dependent on Russian gas over the past year.)
Early last year, President Biden, after meeting with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz at the White House, said Putin’s decision on whether to attack Ukraine will determine the fate of Nord Stream 2. “If Russia invades, which means that tanks and troops will cross the Ukrainian border again, there will be no Nord Stream 2.” Mr. Biden said. “We will put an end to it.”
Asked exactly how that would be done, Mr Biden said cryptically: “I promise you we will.”
A few weeks later, Mr. Scholz announced that his government would block the Nord Stream 2 pipeline from going into operation. Two days later, Russia launched the much-anticipated invasion.
What we consider before using anonymous sources. Do the sources know the information? What is their motivation to tell us? Have they proven reliable in the past? Can we verify the information? Even with these questions satisfied, The Times still uses anonymous sources as a last resort. Reporters and at least one editor know the identity of the source.
Since the explosion along the pipeline in September, there has been much speculation about what happened on the seabed near the Danish island of Bornholm.
Poland and Ukraine immediately accused Russia of planting the explosives, but they offered no evidence.
In contrast, Russia accused Britain of carrying out this operation – also without proof. Russia and Britain have denied any involvement in the explosion.
Last month, investigative journalist Seymour Hersh published an article on newsletter platform Substack concluding that the US carried out the campaign at the direction of Mr. Biden. In making his point, Hersh cited the president’s pre-invasion threat to “end” Nord Stream 2 and similar statements by other senior US officials.
US officials say Mr Biden and his top aides did not authorize the mission to destroy the Nord Stream pipelines, and they say there was no US involvement.
Any findings blaming Kiev or Ukraine’s proxies could trigger a backlash in Europe and make it difficult for the West to maintain a united front in support of Ukraine.
US officials and intelligence agencies admit that they have limited visibility into Ukraine’s decision-making process.
Despite Ukraine’s deep dependence on the United States for military, intelligence, and diplomatic support, Ukrainian officials are not always transparent with their American counterparts about their military activities, especially especially operations against Russian targets behind enemy lines. Those operations have frustrated American officials, who believe they will not significantly improve Ukraine’s position on the battlefield, but also risk alienating European allies and expanding the war.
Activities that have caused concern in the United States include a strike in early August about Russia’s Saki airbase on the west coast of Crimea, a truck bombing in October partial destruction of Kerch . Strait BridgeRussia’s association with Crimea and the December drone attacks targeting Russian military bases in Ryazan and Engelsabout 300 miles outside the Ukrainian border.
But there have been other acts of sabotage and violence of more obscure origin for which US intelligence agencies have had a harder time attributing responsibility to Ukrainian security services.
One of them was a car bomb attack near Moscow in August. kill Daria Duginadaughter of a prominent Russian nationalist.
Kiev denied any involvement but US intelligence agencies finally arrived believe that the killing was authorized by what officials call “elements” of the Ukrainian government. In light of the discovery, the Biden administration privately reprimanded the Ukrainians and warned them against taking similar actions.
The explosions that broke the Nord Stream pipeline took place five weeks after Ms. Dugina’s death. Following the Nord Stream operation, there was speculation – and anxiety – in Washington that parts of the Ukrainian government might also be involved in that operation.
New intelligence has so far provided no evidence of the Ukrainian government’s complicity in the attack on the pipelines, and US officials have indicated the extent of the Biden administration’s confidence in Mr. Zelensky and the security team. His high-level national security was on the rise.
A few days after the explosion, Denmark, Sweden and Germany began separate investigations into Nord Stream’s activities.
Intelligence and law enforcement agencies on both sides of the Atlantic have struggled to gather concrete evidence of what happened on the seabed in the hours, days, and weeks before it happened. out explosion.
The pipelines themselves are not closely monitored by commercial or government sensors. Furthermore, the search for the ship or related ships was complicated by the explosions occurring in high-traffic areas.
That said, investigators have many leads to pursue.
According to a European lawmaker briefed by his country’s main foreign intelligence agency late last year, investigators gathered information on an estimated 45 “ghost ships” with air position transponders. turned on or off as they pass through the area, possibly for camouflage. their movements.
The lawmaker was also told that more than 1,000 pounds of “military-grade” explosives had been used by the perpetrators.
A Danish government spokesman was not immediately available for comment. A German government spokesman declined to comment.
Mats Ljungqvist, a senior prosecutor leading the Swedish investigation, told The New York Times late last month that his country’s hunt for the perpetrators was still ongoing.
“My job is to find out who blew up Nord Stream. To help me, I have the Security Service of our country,” Mr. Ljungqvist said. “Do I think it was Russia that blew up Nord Stream? I never thought so. It’s not logical. But as in the case of murder, you have to be open to all possibilities.”
Report contributed by Rebecca R. Ruiz, Erika Salomon, Melissa Swirl, Michael Schwirtz And Andrew E. Kramer.
