Lawmakers in her Conservative Party are plotting to oust her, and on Tuesday she appeared to lose the support of two key Tory-leaning newspapers.
Tuesday @DailyMailUK #MailFrontPages https://t.co/D5f1Mh1aPn
– Daily Mail UK (@DailyMailUK) 1666042306000
Why – and how – Truss is still at 10 Downing Street?
The main reason is that up to now, Tory MPs completely divided over who should take over. As one congressman said, there is no reliable succession plan. It was a similar dynamic to her predecessor, Boris Johnsona man long past the point where there seems to be a majority consensus he should go.
When Johnson finally stepped down in July, there was still no deal and the party is now desperate to avoid another lengthy, acrimonious leadership contest like the one after his resignation. Some MPs are ready to oppose Truss if there is a coronation of an unnominated successor.
But the most likely candidates face major obstacles. Take the former Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak, whose dire warnings about Truss’ economic plans have been largely delivered. That gives him credibility with the markets.
No Tory Unite
However, he has a lot of enemies in the Tory group. There are around 100 ideologically far-right MPs from the party – including fervent Brexiteers and Johnson supporters – who are determined to block a Sunak prime ministership.
They see Sunak as the face of the kind of Treasury orthodoxy they have backed Truss to reject, and also blame him for triggering Johnson’s downfall. One minister warned that choosing Sunak would lead to more infighting with the Tory.
There have been hints that Sunak could team up with another hopeful, Penny Mordaunt, on a common solidarity ticket. But a person familiar with the matter said Sunak rejected an approach from a senior MP who vowed to act on Mordaunt’s behalf.
Some Tory MPs believe Mordaunt wants the top job for himself and would not agree to crown another candidate. This poses another problem: both Sunak and Mordaunt have the majority of support from centrist MPs – the so-called One Nation Group – causing that caucus to crack. It is possible that, given the choice between them, Mordaunt could command more support from the right than Sunak.
Block Sunak, Mordaunt
An MP on the right side of the party said they were backing “ABSOM” – Anyone But Sunak Or Mordaunt.
Could another candidate emerge from the party center?
Defense Secretary Ben Wallace has earned respect for his handling of the Russo-Ukrainian war. But he has hinted that he is not interested in the work.
Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt considered a candidate, since he is now in fact running the government. But he told Sky News late on Monday that he had ruled out ever becoming prime minister for family reasons. He is also unpopular with right-wing Tory MPs who hate his pro-lockdown stance during the pandemic.
Grant Shapps, the former transport secretary who keeps a spreadsheet of Tory MPs’ position in the leadership question, is well-connected and a formidable operator. However, so far he has remained relatively unnoticed and there is little noise for him to take over.
It’s also unlikely that Brexiteer rights would go down without a fight. Interior Secretary Suella Braverman has been described by colleagues as keeping an eye on Truss’ work, but she is unlikely to be the unifying choice. There is little sign that Johnson’s return is in the cards, despite lobbying from his main backer, Nadine Dorries.
Not easy to fix
Even if the parties could agree on who should succeed Truss, there is no clear mechanism by which that could happen.
According to a person familiar with the matter, it would take about two-thirds of Tory MPs requesting a change of leadership to the influential 1922 Committee – which sets the rules on these matters – to do so. lapsed protection 12 months from challenge Truss in theory enjoys after taking office.
If that threshold is met – or even a smaller but significant number of Tory MPs make the call – emergency rules could be introduced to allow MPs to vote quickly on a replacement. Truss. There is no covetousness within the congressional party for the grassroots members, who backed Truss over the summer, to have the final say this time.
Things can move quickly, though signs suggest the party is still some way off for this to happen. One minister said it was more likely that the pressure on Truss became unbearable as the scale of the opposition became apparent, and she resigned on her own accord. Truss’ ally, however, insists she won’t.
Trapped in something of a holding pattern, Tory MPs are waiting for a future trigger – possibly more market turmoil, a scandal, the possibility of a softening the government’s position on Brexit, or the resignation of the cabinet – to force a change.
But one Tory veteran warned the prospects of a tidy outcome were remote. They say that this party is simply insurmountable.
