In a political paradigm shift, Sri Lanka tilts to the left

Under normal circumstances, Anura Kumara Dissanayake’s victory in Sri Lanka’s presidential election would be called a political earthquake.

But with many seeing the left-wing politician as a front-runner in the previous vote, his victory did not come as a big surprise to Sri Lankans.

Dissanayake, 55, heads the National People’s Power (NPP) coalition, which includes his Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) or People’s Liberation Front party – a party that traditionally favours strong state intervention and lower taxes, while also campaigning for left-wing economic policies.

With his victory, the island will see a government headed by a leader with strong leftist ideology for the first time.

“This is a vote for change,” Harini Amarasuriya, a senior NPP leader and MP, told the BBC.

“This result confirms what we have been campaigning for – a radical change from the current political culture and the anti-corruption campaign.”

Dissanayake is expected to dissolve parliament and hold parliamentary elections soon.

However, it will be a challenge for him to implement his coalition policies in a country that has adopted liberalization and free-market principles since the late 1970s.

The NPP’s landslide victory comes after a wave of public anger over a devastating economic crisis in 2022, when Sri Lanka was forced to grind to a halt amid soaring inflation and depleted foreign exchange reserves.

The country was unable to pay for imports of food, fuel and medicine and declared bankruptcy.

An unprecedented public uprising against the way the government was running the economy forced President Gotabaya Rajapaksa to leave the country in July 2022.

Two months earlier, his brother and veteran leader Mahinda had been forced to resign as prime minister during the early stages of the protests, known as “aragalaya” (struggle) in Sinhala.

Ranil Wickremesinghe came to power as president with the support of the Rajapaksa party. He stabilized the economy and negotiated a $2.9 billion bailout package with the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

For the millions of Sri Lankans who took to the streets, political change was nothing more than a transfer of power between established political parties and dynasties.

The NPP and Dissanayake capitalized on this sentiment, as many in the country saw him as outside the old order.

Although he was briefly a minister when the JVP was part of the coalition government under President Chandrika Kumaratunga in the early 2000s, Dissanayake’s supporters say he is untainted by allegations of corruption or cronyism.

The question is how his presidency will address Sri Lanka’s enormous economic challenges.

During his election campaign, he promised to cut taxes and utility bills. That would mean less government revenue and would go against some of the conditions set by the IMF loan.

“We will work within the general agreement that the IMF reached in the current government,” said Amarasuriya of the NPP. “But we will negotiate certain details, especially regarding austerity measures.”

The election victory is a remarkable turnaround for Dissanayake, who received just over 3% of the vote in the 2019 presidential poll.

But while he may have won over a majority of voters this time, there are still concerns about the political ideology of Dissanayake and his JVP party, which is remembered for riots that led to the deaths of tens of thousands of people in the late 1980s.

Since 1987, the JVP has led an armed insurgency against the Sri Lankan government in what has been called the “season of terror”.

The rebellion, fueled by discontent among rural middle- and lower-class youth, resulted in a conflict marked by raids, assassinations, and attacks on both political opponents and civilians.

Dissanayake, who was elected to the JVP’s central committee in 1997 and became its leader in 2008, has apologized for the party’s violent behavior. But his victory in the vote raises questions about the role the JVP may play in Sri Lankan politics in the future.

“The JVP has a history of violence and there are concerns about its position in the new government,” said Bhavani Fonseka, a senior researcher at the Centre for Policy Alternatives (CPA) in Colombo.

“I think Mr Dissanayake has softened his extremist message in his public outreach. My question is, while he may have softened, what about the old guard of the JVP? Where do they position themselves in a new government?”

Another challenge for Dissanayake is reaching out to the country’s minority Tamil community, who have been seeking decentralization of power to the north and east and reconciliation since the civil war ended in May 2009.

The conflict between the Tamil Tiger rebels and the Sri Lankan state broke out in 1983. The Tamil Tigers eventually controlled large areas in their fight for independence in the north and east of the island, but were defeated and nearly wiped out in a 2009 military offensive.

Fifteen years later, the Sri Lankan government’s promise to share power and decentralize its political authority in Tamil-majority areas has largely failed to materialize.

Although votes for the NPP increased in the north and east, Tamils ​​did not overwhelmingly vote for Dissanayake, reflecting concerns about the NPP’s policies toward their political demands.

The Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights in Geneva has urged the new government to pursue a comprehensive national vision for Sri Lanka that addresses the root causes of ethnic conflict.

The government “should undertake fundamental constitutional and institutional reforms needed to strengthen democracy and decentralize political power and promote accountability and reconciliation,” the latest report said.

It is not just about domestic policy. The rise of the NPP and JVP is being closely watched in India and China, which are competing for influence in Sri Lanka. Both have lent billions of dollars to Colombo.

Dissanayake, with his Marxist leanings, is seen as ideologically closer to China. The JVP has previously criticised India’s policy towards Sri Lanka and opposed what it calls Indian expansionism.

In his campaign speech, Dissanayake also promised to cancel a wind power project in the north funded by Indian business tycoon Gautam Adani, who is seen as close to Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

“The cost of the Adani project should have been reduced, given its large scale, but the opposite has happened,” Dissanayake said last week. “This is clearly a corrupt deal, and we will definitely cancel it.”

In any case, expectations were high from many ordinary Sri Lankans who voted for change.

“Whoever comes to power should reduce the prices of food, fuel and electricity. They also need to increase salaries,” said Colombo resident Sisira Padmasiri. “The new president should provide some immediate relief to the public.”

Experts point out that Sri Lanka will have to make even tougher decisions on austerity measures to balance its books and meet its debt obligations.

After taking over, Dissanayake will find out how much he can really live up to the people’s expectations.