Ismael ‘El Mayo’ Zambada is one of the most notorious names in the history of the war on drugs, synonymous with the terrifying power and corrosive influence of the world’s largest drug cartel.
The last of the first generation of drug cartel leaders, he founded the Sinaloa cartel with Joaquin ‘El Chapo’ Guzman from the remaining members of the Guadalajara cartel after its collapse in 1989.
But unlike his notorious associate, who was imprisoned and escaped twice, El Mayo was able to evade capture for about 35 years. Until now.
US authorities arrested him in El Paso, Texas on Thursday. He has pleaded not guilty to multiple charges in federal court in Texas.
He was lured to the United States as part of an elaborate disinformation campaign orchestrated by the son of his former partner, El Chapo. Joaquin Guzman Lopez, one of El Chapo’s business heirs, was arrested along with Zambada for misleading him into believing he was traveling to northern Mexico to look at potential properties for secret airstrips.
“Are you worried about being caught?” Zambada was asked in 2010 by the late Mexican journalist Julio Scherer García, who had traveled deep into the mountains to conduct an unprecedented interview with the drug lord.
“The thought of being in prison terrifies me,” he replied. “I’m not sure I have the capacity to commit suicide. I’d like to think I do, and I will.”
However, when it comes to that, either he doesn’t have the means or the opportunity.
For someone who has been so cautious for so many years, it seems extraordinary that Zambada was duped at the age of 76. Perhaps it took something special to get him locked up.
“I’m not surprised that Zambada didn’t go voluntarily,” said Mike Vigil, a former DEA agent. “He’s in his 70s, in poor health, and has said that prison is his biggest fear.”
The arrests — and a possible plea deal between El Chapo’s sons, known as Los Chapitos, and the US government — raise questions about who will take control of the Sinaloa Cartel.
After El Chapo Guzman was captured and extradited to the United States in 2016, a cycle of bloodshed began as rival factions fought for control of territory and against rival drug cartels that felt vulnerable.
Even more shocking and violent was the reaction of Sinaloa cartel fighters when their leader, Ovidio Guzman Lopez, was captured in October 2019.
After his capture, hundreds of gunmen stormed the city of Culiacan and opened fire on civilian, police and military targets with .50 caliber weapons and rocket launchers. Eventually, the government returned Ovidio Guzman to his men to end the fighting.
He was later recaptured, extradited and is currently awaiting trial in a US prison.
Mike Vigil believes a similar outbreak of violence, known as the Culiacanazo, could be avoided this time:
“The Sinaloa cartel has a very strong leadership group that could take over, including El Chapo’s brother,” he said.
In fact, Mr Vigil argues, the “drug lord strategy” – focusing on taking down individual cartel leaders – rarely works.
“Under the administration of (then-Mexican President Felipe) Calderon, this only tended to create internal conflicts between drug cartels, which then led to a bloodbath.”
Former DEA agent Mike Vigil said that if that happens this time, “the only winner will be their rival, the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG).”
But moments of upheaval and potential loss of power like this are unpredictable. The Mexican government has sent additional forces to the state of Sinaloa in anticipation of any outbreak of violence.
The other obvious question about Zambada’s arrest is: why now?
The operation had been planned for months. However, some reports suggest there was also an element of chance involved. As the various elements behind the plot seemed to come together, despite some skepticism among US authorities, they ultimately decided they had nothing to lose by trying.
However, the larger reason behind the timing was revealed by the words of US Attorney General Merrick Garland in a video message confirming the arrest:
“Fentanyl is the deadliest threat our country has ever faced,” he said, promising that the U.S. Justice Department “will not rest until every cartel leader, member, and associate responsible for poisoning our communities is held accountable.”
Fentanyl overdoses are now the leading cause of death for Americans between the ages of 18 and 45. It’s a staggering statistic, and one that has likely caught the attention of the Biden administration, especially in an election year.
Both Los Chapitos and El Mayo make billions of dollars from fentanyl, a drug that is easy to produce and transport without the need for large coca plantations in the Andes that are required for cocaine production.
Experts say it is nearly impossible to completely stop the fentanyl trade. It is simply too profitable for the cartels and too divisive in the modern context of Mexico’s drug war.
However, US law enforcement wants to damage the gangs that produce this drug, reduce their influence and, whenever possible, destroy their leadership.
The capture of El Mayo Zambada – even though he was old, in poor health and arrested for treason – was always a key part of that strategy.
