How the relationship hit rock bottom between the two countries

India and Canada have expelled their top diplomats amid escalating tensions over the assassination of a Sikh separatist on Canadian soil, marking a new low in historically close ties. history. While past disagreements have strained the relationship, none have reached such a level of public confrontation.

In 1974, India shocked the world by detonating a nuclear device, sparking outrage from Canada, which accused India of extracting plutonium from a Canadian reactor, a gift intended solely for its own use. peace.

Relations between the two countries cooled significantly – Canada suspended support for India’s atomic energy program.

However, neither expelled their top diplomats as they did on Monday as controversy grew over President Trump’s assassination last year. Hardeep Singh Nijjara Canada-based Sikh leader considered a terrorist by India.

The tit-for-tat expulsions followed Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s announcement that Canadian police were investigating allegations of direct involvement of Indian agents in the June 2023 killing.

Canadian police continue to accuse Indian agents of engaging in “murders, extortion and acts of violence” targeting Khalistan supporters support a separate Sikh homeland in India. Delhi dismissed the allegations as “absurd”.

There are about 770,000 Sikhs living in Canada, which is home to the largest Sikh community outside the Indian state of Punjab. Sikh separatism – rooted in a bloody uprising in India in the 1980s and early 90s – continues to strain relations between the two countries. Canada has faced harsh criticism from Delhi for not opposing the pro-Khalistan movement within its borders. India says Canada knows about local Khalistani groups and has been monitoring them for years.

“This relationship has reached a dead end downward trajectory for many years, but now it has bottomed out,” Michael Kugelman of the Wilson Center, an American policy think tank, told the BBC.

“Publicly making extremely serious and detailed allegations, withdrawing ambassadors and top diplomats, issuing diplomatic statements with harsh language. This is uncharted territory , even for this troubled relationship.”

Other analysts agree that the moment signals a historic shift.

“This represents a significant slide in Canada-India relations under the Trudeau government,” added Ryan Touhey, author of Conflicting Visions, Canada and India in a Cold War World. .

A history professor at St Jerome’s College in Waterloo, Mr. Touhey noted that a key success of former prime minister Stephen Harper’s government was in forging a “protracted period of rapprochement” between Canada and India. , overcoming grievances regarding Khalistan and nuclear proliferation.

“Instead, the emphasis is placed on the importance of trade and educational relationships as well as people-to-people links due to the large Indian diaspora in Canada. It is worth noting that the Khalistan problem seems to have disappeared since the turn of the millennium. Now it suddenly erupted again.”

Canada’s accusations come at a time when Trudeau appears to be fighting anti-incumbency politics at home ahead of an election just a year away. New poll by Ipsos revealed only 28% overall think Trudeau deserves to be re-elected and only 26% would vote for the Liberals. India’s Ministry of External Affairs is bruised comment on Monday, accused Canada’s charges of being aimed at “the Trudeau government’s political agenda centered on vote bank politics.”

In 2016, Trudeau told reporters that he has more Sikhs – four – in his cabinet than Prime Minister Narendra Modi in India. Sikhs have significant influence in Canadian politics, holding 15 seats in the House of Commons – more than 4% – while representing only about 2% of the population. Many of these seats are in key battlegrounds in national elections. In 2020, Trudeau expressed concern about farmer protests in India, drew harsh criticism by Delhi.

“I think broadly speaking this crisis will give a sense that this is a prime minister who seems to be going from one failure to another. More specifically, in the Indo-Canadian community, it can be more hurtful than ever,” Mr. Touhey said.

He explains that the Indian community in Canada, once predominantly Punjabi and Sikh, has become more diverse, now including significant numbers of Hindus and immigrants from southern India and the western state of Gujarat.

“They are proud of India’s economic transformation since the 1990s and would have no sympathy for Sikh separatism. Historically, the Liberal Party has been quite successful politically with the Sikh vote, especially in British Columbia.”

However, Mr. Touhey does not feel the crisis in India has anything to do with vote bank politics.

Instead, he believes it has more to do with the Canadian government’s “continuous lack of signals from Delhi regarding India’s concerns about pro-Khalistani elements in Canada”.

“My strong feeling is that after decades of pleading with Canadian governments to address India’s concerns about pro-Khalistani elements in Canada, they feel that they are going back to square one. – except this time you have a much different government in Delhi that is willing to act strongly, rightly or wrongly, to contain domestic threats,” Mr. Touhey said.

Mr. Kugelman also has a similar view.

“There are many reasons to explain the rapid deterioration in bilateral relations. This includes a fundamental disconnect: what India sees or predicts as a dangerous threat is seen by Canada as mere activism and dissent protected by freedom of expression . And neither of them were willing. to make concessions,” he said.

All may not be lost. The two countries have a long-standing relationship. Canada is home to one of the largest Indian communities, with 1.3 million residents, or about 4% of the population. India is a priority market for Canada, ranked as the 10th largest trading partner by 2022. India has also been Canada’s top source of international students since 2018.

“On the one hand, the relationship is broader than ever thanks to the size of the diaspora, its diversity and increased bilateral trade, increased student exchange – although this last point has become an issue troubling issue for the Trudeau government same thing,” Mr. Touhey said.

“So I think human connections will be fine. At a highly bilateral level, I don’t think the current Canadian government can do much because it’s almost entering its final year with an election on the horizon.” no later than fall 2025.”

For now, though, things look pretty bad, experts say.

“Delhi is now making the same accusations against Canada that it regularly makes against Pakistan. It accused Ottawa of sheltering and sponsoring anti-India terrorists. But recently, the language of accusations against Canada has been stronger than against Pakistan. And that’s saying something,” Mr. Kugelman said.

Follow BBC News India on Instagram, YouTube, Twitter And Facebook.