WASHINGTON – Intelligence officers made a major discovery this spring after tracking Ayman al-Zawahri, the leader of Al Qaeda, to Kabul, Afghanistan: He likes to read books alone on the balcony of his house. your safety early in the morning.
Analysts look for life’s archetypal intelligence, any routine the CIA can exploit. In al-Zawahri’s case, his lengthy balcony visits provided the agency with an opportunity to execute a rocket fire that could clearly have avoided property damage.
The hunt for al-Zawahri, one of the world’s most wanted terrorists, stretches back to before the September 11 attacks. The CIA continued to hunt for him as he headed Al Qaeda after his death. Osama bin Laden and after the Taliban took over Afghanistan last year. And one mistake, the recruitment of a double agent, led to one of the bloodiest days in the company’s history.
Soon after the United States left Kabul, the CIA stepped up efforts to find al-Zawahri, convinced that he would try to return to Afghanistan. Senior officials have told the White House that they will be able to maintain and build a domestic disinformation network remotely and that the United States will not be blind to terrorist threats there. For the agency, finding al-Zawahri would be an important test of that claim.
This article is based on interviews with current and former U.S. officials and other officials, independent analysts who have studied the decades-long manhunt, and others briefed on the events that led to the weekend strike. Most spoke on condition of anonymity because sensitive intelligence was used to find al-Zawahri.
For years, al-Zawahri is believed to have been hiding in the Pakistani border region, where many Qaeda and Taliban leaders took refuge after the US invasion of Afghanistan in late 2001. He is wanted in connection with the bombings. embassies in 1998 in Tanzania and Kenya, and the CIA tracked down a network of people that intelligence officials said supported him.
Testing that network is enhanced with US exits from Afghanistan last year and some intelligence officials believe senior Al Qaeda leaders will be tempted to return.
The hunch proved right. The agency found that al-Zawahri’s family had returned to a safe home in Kabul. Although the family went to great lengths to ensure that they were not being tracked and to keep al-Zawahri’s location a secret, intelligence agencies soon learned that he had also returned to Afghanistan.
Mick Mulroy, a former CIA officer, said: “There has been a renewed attempt to find out where he is. “One good thing that can happen with a withdrawal from Afghanistan is that some high-ranking terrorist will then think they are safe there.”
The safe house is owned by an aide to senior officials in the Haqqani network, a hardline and violent wing of the Taliban government, and it is located in an area controlled by the group. Senior Taliban leaders occasionally meet at home, but American officials don’t know how many know that the Haqqanis are hiding al-Zawahri.
If some senior Taliban officials were unaware that Haqqanis had allowed al-Zawahri to return, his killing could put these groups on edge, independent analysts and others Briefly describe the event.
It is not clear why Al-Zawahri moved to Afghanistan. He’s been making recruitment and promotional videos for a long time, and maybe it could have been easier to produce them in Kabul. He may also have better access to medical treatment.
Whatever the reason, his ties to the leaders of the Haqqani network led American intelligence officials to the safe house.
“The Haqqanis have a very long relationship with Al Qaeda, going back to their days in the mujahedeen,” said Dan Hoffman, a former CIA officer. “They give Al Qaeda a lot of the tactical support they need.”
Once the safe house was located, the CIA tracked down the play it had written during the hunt for Bin Laden. The agency built a model of the site and managed to learn everything about it.
Analysts eventually identified one figure who lingered on the balcony reading, but never left the house, as al-Zawahri.
American officials quickly decided to target him, but the location of the house posed problems. It is located in the Sherpur district of Kabul, an urban area of closely spaced houses. A rocket equipped with a large explosive can damage nearby houses. And any attack by Special Operations forces would be extremely dangerous, limiting the options for the US government to launch an attack.
The search for al-Zawahri is of great importance to the agency. After the US invasion of Afghanistan, the CIA base in Khost province became home to a targeted group that tracked both Bin Laden and al-Zawahri. It was one of the clues developed by the CIA to track al-Zawahri that plagued the agency’s officers at that base, Camp Chapman.
CIA officers are recruited Humam Khalil Abu Mulal al-Balawi, a Jordanian doctor and propagandist for Al Qaeda, whom they hoped would lead them to al-Zawahri. He provided American officials with information about al-Zawahri’s health, convincing them that his intelligence was genuine. But he’s actually a double agent, and December 30, 2009, he showed up at Camp Chapman wearing a suicide vest. When it exploded, seven agents were killed.
For many, the attack in Khost has increased efforts to find al-Zawahri. “To honor their legacy, you continue the mission,” said Mr. Hoffman.
In 2012 and 2013, the CIA focused on the North Waziristan region of Pakistan. CIA analysts are confident they have found the small village where al-Zawahri is hiding. But intelligence agencies could not find his home in the town of about a dozen compounds, making a raid or drone strike impossible.
However, the American hunt forced al-Zawahri to remain in the tribal areas of Pakistan, possibly limiting his effectiveness as a leader in Al Qaeda.
Lisa Maddox, a former CIA analyst, said: “Whenever anything related to Bin Laden or Zawahri gets into the intelligence channels, everyone stops to step in and help out. “. “That’s the CIA’s promise to the public: bring them to justice.”
On April 1, top intelligence officials briefed national security officials at the White House about the safe house and how they tracked down al-Zawahri. After the meeting, the CIA and other intelligence agencies worked to learn more about what they called al-Zawahri’s life pattern.
Importantly, he was never seen out of the house and only seemed to get fresh air while standing on the balcony upstairs. He remained on the balcony for a long time, which provided a good opportunity for the CIA to target him.
Al-Zawahri continued to work from the safe house, producing videos for distribution to the Qaeda network.
A senior administration official, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive decisions leading up to the attack, said the intelligence provided to the White House had been checked multiple times, including by a group of people. Independent analysts are tasked with identifying everyone who is at the safe house.
As attack options were developed, intelligence officials examined what types of missiles could be fired at al-Zawahri without causing major damage to the safe house or the surrounding area. In the end, they decided on a form of Hellfire missile designed to kill a single person.
William J. Burns, the CIA director, and other intelligence officials briefed President Biden on July 1, this time with a model of the safe house, the senior official said.
At that meeting, Mr. Biden asked about the possibility of collateral damage, prompting Mr. Burns to take steps about how officers had found al-Zawahri and confirmed his information, as well as the plan to kill him. he.
Biden ordered a series of analyzes to try to predict the impact of the attack on the Taliban, the region and the US effort to move Afghans to the US, the senior official said. The President also asked about the possible risks to Mark R. Frerichs, an American hostage held by Haqqanis.
In June and July, officials met several times in the Situation Room to discuss intelligence and consider potential ramifications.
The CIA plans to urge them to use their own drones. Since it was using its own assets, several Pentagon officials were included in the planning of the attack, and many senior military officials learned about it shortly before the House’s announcement. White, an official said.
On July 25, Mr. Biden, satisfied with the plan, authorized the CIA to conduct an air strike when the opportunity arose. Sunday morning in Kabul, it happened. A CIA drone found al-Zawahri on his balcony. Agency agents fired the missile, ending a manhunt that has lasted more than two decades.
Thomas Gibbons-Neff, Adam Goldman and Michael Crowley contribution report.
