How much will it cost to cut the carbon emissions of cars sold in the United States?

A new study led by Argonne National Laboratory has found that electric vehicles will soon have the potential to cost less to own and operate than traditional gas-powered vehicles, while cutting in half. greenhouse gas emissions over the life of the vehicle.

Electric vehicles (EVs) account for a rapidly growing share of the new car market, but buying and owning one of these vehicles has traditionally come at a premium. EVs decrease greenhouse gas emissionsBut how much, and at what cost?

The US Department of Energy (DOE) began to find out.

In a new review led by DOE’s Argonne National Laboratory, US DRIVE estimated the costs and greenhouse gas emissions of vehicles over their entire lifecycle, both with current technology ( 2020) and future potential (2030-2035). US DRIVE, short for United States Driving Research and Innovation for Efficient Vehicles and Sustainable Energy, is a voluntary government-industry partnership that includes the DOE and numerous automotive, energy and utility companies. useful.

Their report, a first update published in 2016shows that some tram could soon become less expensive to own and operate than traditional gas-powered vehicles, while cutting greenhouse gas emissions by more than half.

The results obtained were a pleasant surprise to the report’s authors. “Considering previous analysis, I think reduce carbon Jarod Kelly, energy systems analyst at Argonne and lead author of the report, said. most promising for a number of battery-powered electric vehicles. However, the authors stress that cost-negative decarbonization will only be possible with continued progress in battery technology and if the DOE meets its decarbonization targets. grid.

US DRIVE’s cradle-to-grave (C2G) analysis looked at the costs and greenhouse gas emissions of several vehicle and fuel technology options over the vehicle’s lifecycle. This includes Exploitation of resources (“cradle”), convert those resources into fuel and vehicles, use the fuel while on the road, and recycle the vehicle at the end of the journey (“grave”). The analysis also includes an assessment of the cost of each vehicle per mile driven and the cost of avoidable greenhouse gas emissions.

For this report, US DRIVE chose to focus on the most popular vehicles in the US, midsize sedans and small SUVs. They rate vehicles and fuel combinations including internal combustion engine with conventional and biofuels, hybrid and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, battery electric vehicles with a variety of vehicles, and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles.

“The most exciting part of the project is being able to work closely with industry, government and other national labs,” says Kelly. In addition to Argonne and DOE, the US DRIVE report called in experts from some of the biggest automakers, including General Motors and Ford. It also involved gas and energy experts at Chevron, the Electrical Energy Research Institute (EPRI) and DOE’s National Renewable Energy Laboratory.

“This type of research was not done by one entity or one agency,” said Amgad Elgowainy, a senior scientist who leads Argonne’s Electrification and Infrastructure group, who co-authored the report. He said the study is the pinnacle of the team’s work and will inform decisions on how best to achieve government and industry goals. “Government, industry and utility companies must work together to identify the potential of different technology options to provide pathways forward. By working together, we can provide reliable analysis to inform automotive decarbonisation.”

Among the reasons Argonne is tapped to lead research is the Laboratory’s global leadership in cradle and lifecycle analyses; The lab also has expertise in greenhouse gas emission modeling, battery material composition and vehicle simulation. The US team DRIVE used Argonne’s Greenhouse Gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy Uses in Technology (GREET) models to quantify greenhouse gas emissions from both the fuel production lifecycle and the means of production. convenient. Meanwhile, vehicle fuel economy, cost and component sizes were estimated using Argonne’s vehicle simulation tool, Autonomie.

One of the challenges in estimating lifetime greenhouse gas emissions is that all vehicles are not created equal — the most environmentally friendly vehicles on the road are often the ones that use the most. most energy to produce. End-to-end analysis allows “apples to apples” to be compared to see how fuel and powertrain technologies differ on the same economic and environmental scale.

The US DRIVE study aims to identify vehicle technology pathways that have the potential to significantly reduce lifetime greenhouse gas emissions. The researchers took into account all of the carbon emissions associated with vehicle construction and use, as well as fuel fabrication and use. For electric vehicles, this meant the analysis looked at greenhouse gas emissions from the electricity used to charge the vehicle and the energy used to extract materials for batteries and other components. of the vehicle.

Many technological avenues can reduce the carbon footprint of vehicles. One approach considers the potential of different electric trains, such as hybrids, batteries and fuel cells. Another focus is on improving the vehicle’s overall performance so that it runs on less fuel. A combination of these methods may be necessary to achieve deeper decarbonisation. Biofuels, clean hydrogen and electricity are potential low-carbon alternatives to gasoline. The US DRIVE report assessed the potential of each of these pathways in reducing greenhouse gas emissions and associated costs. This helped the team identify the most promising pathways for current and future decarbonization vehicles.

When it comes to a low-carbon future, there’s reason to be hopeful, the researchers say. When a vehicle’s performance is combined with a low-carbon fuel, in most cases the reduction in greenhouse gas emissions is more than double the increase in efficiency alone.

Kelly says that by far the biggest difference between this study and the one published in 2016 is the rapid advancement of battery technology. The analysis shows that electric vehicle batteries not only significantly reduce carbon footprint, but also have the potential to reduce the cost of ownership. Electric vehicle battery costs have dropped significantly over the past decade and this trend is forecast to continue.

“Decarbonization is one of the main ways we can fight climate change,” says Elgowainy. The study, he said, aligns with US goals for decarbonizing the transportation sector – the government hopes that by 2030, half of all new vehicles sold will be zero-emissions, such as battery-powered electric vehicles. Elgowainy emphasizes that there is no need to wait to make an impact. “Electric vehicles are a very attractive option today, because even with the current grid you can cut your emissions in half,” he said. “As the grid gets cleaner every year, we’re looking forward to a promising clean energy future for cars in the US”

Now that the US team DRIVE has completed an end-to-end analysis of light vehicles, it has begun a similar study for medium and heavy vehicles.