The prediction market has had its breakthrough moment in the presidential electionas they prove to be more accurate than most public opinion polls.
So, with various cryptocurrencies skyrocketing since Donald Trump won the election, perhaps prediction markets can accurately answer the question “How high will Bitcoin go?”
On the cryptocurrency platform Multi-marketwhere the so-called french whale Having reaped large profits after the election, bettors have a variety of options for Bitcoin, which is currently trading at around $91,000.
For a contract on the price Bitcoin will reach in November, the odds are 72% that it will reach $95,000. The price with the next highest odds is $105,000 at 23%, then $110,000 at 14%.
A separate contract asking whether Bitcoin will reach above $90,000 by November 22 shows odds of 60%, while another contract asking whether Bitcoin will reach $100,000 by November shows only 42% opportunity.
above Kalshi prediction marketa contract asking how high Bitcoin will go before 2026 shows 52% odds for $125,000 or more and 44% odds for $150,000 or more.
If prediction markets aren’t your thing and you prefer forecasts from a more traditional Wall Street analyst, Fundstrat Global Advisors co-founder Tom Lee.
Among forecasters surveyed by BloombergHis stock market call for 2023 turned out to be most accurate.
As for Bitcoin, he said in March that it could reach $150,000 by the end of the year. Although that seems less likely now that there’s only a month and a half left in the year, Lee told CNBC last week that “six figures” was still possible before the end of the year with more increases in 2025 in 2026.
“Now I think because post-halving Bitcoin is becoming a lot more relevant and I think probably the regulatory overhang is decreasing, there are a lot of positives from here,” he explained.
Bitcoin is up 32% in November alone and has more than doubled this year. To reach $100,000, it would have to increase by 10%.
But there are signs that the post-election recovery is faltering as the stock market recorded another week of losses. However, key components of the “Trump trade” are rising, like Tesla stocks, Treasury bond yields and the dollar.
Meanwhile, Quinn Thompson, founder of the crypto hedge fund Lekker Capitalspeak Luck in the past week he Bitcoin is optimistic it will soon reach the $100,000 milestone.
“I feel happy that we achieved our goal at the end of the year,” he said. “Most likely by the end of the month, but we’ll see.”
