“The fact that the courts have allowed women in this country to go to the ballot box restores the right to choose,” said President Biden. talk by video Wednesday, when he signed an executive order to help Americans cross state lines to get abortions. “They have no clue about the strength of American women.”
In interviews, Senator Elizabeth Warren, Democrat of Massachusetts, urged Democrats to “go all out” in support of access to abortion, and Representative Sean Patrick Maloney, the group’s chair. campaigning for House Democrats, said the Kansas vote provides a “preview of upcoming attractions” for Republicans. Representative Elissa Slotkin, a Michigan Democrat in a highly competitive region, issued a statement saying that access to abortion “hits the heart of preserving individual freedoms and ensuring that women, not governments, have can decide their own fate”.
Republicans say midterm campaigns will be determined by Mr. Biden’s disastrous approval ratings and economic concerns.
Both Republicans and Democrats are cautious against putting the outcome of a polling question up or down with how Americans will vote in November, when they will weigh a long list of issues, their personalities and views on Democratic control of Washington.
“More candidates and a much stronger conversation about many other issues, this single issue will not lead the question,” said David Kochel, a Republican veteran of nearby Iowa. The full national story that Democrats are hoping for.” However, Mr. Kochel acknowledged the risks of Republicans going overboard, as social conservatives push for abortion bans with some exceptions that polls often show are not. Popularity.
“The GOP base is certainly ahead of the voters’ desire to restrict abortion,” he said. “That’s the main lesson of Kansas.”
Read more about abortion issues in America
Polls have long shown most Americans support at least some abortion rights. But opponents of abortion are more likely to let the issue decide their vote, leading to a passionate gap between the two sides of the issue. Democrats hope Supreme Court decision this summer abolish the constitutional right to abortion will change that, as Republican-led states rush to enact new restrictions, and complete ban about the procedure to be kept.
The Kansas vote is the most concrete evidence yet of a large swath of voters – including some Republicans still support their party in November – ready to push back. Kansasians voted to reject the amendment in Johnson County – which has moderate, densely populated suburbs outside of Kansas City – rejecting the bill with about 70% of the vote, a sign of the strength of this problem in suburban battlefields nationwide. But the amendment was also defeated in more conservative counties, like Advocating for abortion rights outweighs what Mr. Biden shows in 2020 almost everywhere.
After months of struggling with myself disengage if not demoralized baseDemocratic strategists and officials hope the results signal a wake-up call. They argue that abortion rights are an important part of an effort to disqualify Republicans as extremists and make the 2022 election a bipartisan choice, rather than a vote-only referendum. Democratic Party.
“The Republican Party is running fairly openly in support of banning abortion,” Senator Warren said. “It’s important for Democrats to make it clear that this is the key difference and that Democrats will be in favor of letting pregnant women make the decisions, not the government.”
A Kansas-style referendum would be a rarity this election year, with only four other states is expected to give abortion rights directly to voters in November with their constitutional amendments: California, Michigan, Vermont and Kentucky. However, the issue has emerged as a defining debate in several key races, including in Michigan and Pennsylvania, where Democratic candidates for governor have cast themselves as the wall. against sweeping abortion restrictions or bans. On Tuesday, the Michigan Republican Party was nominated Tudor Dixona former conservative commentator, for the governor who opposed abortion in cases of rape and incest.
And in Pennsylvania, Doug Mastriano, the far-right Republican nominee for governor, said, “I don’t give a way for exceptions“When asked if he believes in exceptions to rape, incest or the life of the mother. Governors races in states including Wisconsin and Georgia are also possible direct influence abortion rights.
More tests of the effects of abortion on races are coming soon. North of New York City, a Democrat running in this month’s special House election, Pat Ryan, has made abortion rights a central focus of his campaign, seeing the race as another measure of the strength of this issue this year.
“We have to step up and make sure our core liberties are protected and protected,” said Ryan, the Ulster County executive in New York, who has been closely monitoring the Kansas results, said.
Opponents of the Kansas referendum rely on that “liberal” message, with ads that makes the effort nothing short of government mandate – leaving voters long distrustful of too much interference from Topeka and Washington – and sometimes not using the word “abortion” at all. .
Some messages are aimed at average, often suburban voters who have switched parties in recent elections. Strategists from both parties agree that abortion rights could become prominent among voters, especially women, in the fall. Democrats also point to evidence that the issue can also boost voter turnout in their establishments.
Following the Supreme Court decision, Democrats registered to vote at a faster rate than Republicans in Kansas, according to a memo from Tom Bonier, chief executive officer of TargetSmart, a company Democrat data. Mr. Bonier said his analysis showed that about 70% of Kansasians who registered after the court ruling were women.
“It would be negligent to continue to focus on this issue for the remainder of this election season – and beyond,” said Tracy Sefl, a Democratic strategist. of the Democratic Party. “What Democrats should say is that for Americans, your bedroom is on the ballot this November.”
Inside the Democratic Party, there’s been a fierce debate since Roe was overturned about how much to talk about abortion rights in a time of soaring prices and a tough economy – and that has possibilities are increasing. Some longtime strategists warn that there is always a risk of being distracted from issues that polls show still concern most Americans.
Senator Brian Schatz, a Democrat of Hawaii, said he understood the reluctance of party leaders.
“The willpower is on the side of abortion rights,” he said. “For decades that hasn’t been true, so it’s hard for some people who’ve been through so many hard battles and many difficult states to realize that the ground has changed for them. But it did.”
He urged Democrats to ignore polls that show abortion is not a top issue, adding that “voters take their cues from leaders” and Democrats Owners need to discuss more about access to abortion. “When your pollster or your strategist says, ‘Ask the abortion question and turn away from it,’ you should probably resist,” he said.
A Kaiser Family Foundation poll released this week found that access to abortion has become more prominent for women aged 18 to 49, with a 14 percentage point increase since May. 2 for those who say it will matter to their ballot in the midterm elections, up to 73 percent.
That number is roughly equal to the share of the general electorate who say inflation will be important this fall – and an indication of how hot abortion has become for many women. .
Still, Republicans say they won’t let their focus divert from the problems they’ve been raising for months.
“This fall, voters will weigh abortion along with inflation, education, crime, security,” said Kellyanne Conway, Republican pollster and former senior Trump White. national security and the feeling that no one in Democratic-controlled Washington listens to or cares about them. Home advisor.
Michael McAdams, communications director for the Republican National Congressional Committee, said that if Democrats focus on the abortion campaign in the fall, they will ignore the economy and record high prices: #1 problem in every competitive area.”
One of the most dangerous House Democrat, Representative Tom Malinowski of New Jersey, agrees that “the economy is the deciding issue for people.”
“But there is a relationship here, because voters want leaders to focus on fighting inflation, not banning abortion,” he said. Mr. Malinowski, who said he was planning to advertise abortion rights, said the results in Kansas confirmed to him the importance of abortion and the public’s desire to prevent the government from making such decisions. such personalization.
“There is a tremendous amount of energy among voters and potential voters this fall to make that point,” he said.
Peter Baker Contribution report from Washington.
