I heard your collective sigh as I read the title and originator of this story. Amazingly, the most dominant congress in the country only hosts a larger portion of the unique quartet in college football. How can that be good for sport? Calm down, Tommy. (what I’m choosing to call people who whine without reading a word). The College football league expansion will be developed in the next few years and that problem will be solved. For now, it’s not the fault of the Southeast Conference’s strongest teams that the rest of America can’t keep up.
The SEC has four strong options for creating a CFP, by far the most for any league in the US. If Ole Miss, Tennessee, Georgia, or Alabama lose a win, they’ll be in, no question about that. The Crimson Tide and Rebels still have to play and a loss to Alabama would make it out of contention for the title. In fact, the SEC East championship game between the Bulldogs and the Vols will take place on November 5 in Athens. A one-loss UGA or UT team, with their only loss coming on the first Saturday in November, would look terribly appealing to the committee. That’s exactly what happened to Alabama in the 2018 playoffs. After being knocked out of the SEC title game, it took the 4th seed, beat the No. 1 overall Clemson, and won the wilds. ahead of Georgia in Tua Tagovailoa’s star-studded moment. I don’t think Ole Miss will be given the same second chance for the championship in same circuit Texas A&M didn’t get one in 2020.
Let’s narrow down the aggressors’ options to this nightmare for some, a pipe dream for others. Let’s throw each of the Five Hopes into the boat first. Last year’s Cincinnati was very good, but nothing closes in existence in 2022. The Big 12 are left with three options, none of which look too promising. TCU is the only undefeated team left in the tournament, with Kansas State and Oklahoma State being the first-to-lose pairing. The Wildcats played the Horned Frog and the Cowboy for the next two weeks. By the time November turns around the Big 12, there will be a maximum of two teams with CFP dreams alive. Too many good, but not great, teams exist in the Big 12, and TCU will eventually be eliminated from its place. The league is not participating in the CFP this season. Sorry to point out what should be obvious.
Pac-12 is the next closest wholesale device pushed out of the picture CFP, but its picks look better than the Big 12, also with three teams still in contention – UCLA and USC are in the Big Ten, along with Oregon, whose only loss was beaten by Georgia. The Bruins still had to overcome the Trojans and Ducks as the Pac-12’s remaining undefeated team, and then win the conference championship game. It’s an unlikely winning trio and will reduce their chances of getting into the CFP. Despite losing to Utah, USC was the conference’s best chance to make it to the knockout stages, but running the table was necessary. Oregon’s opening week defeat will be a hard pill to swallow for the committee, unless it runs across the table and looks superior, which I think has small odds.
One of the biggest hurdles 75% SEC CFP heralded is Clemson, as the Big Ten will have at least one team and nothing will change that. Ohio State and Michigan are too good a pair for both to be denied. Whoever wins that match in Columbus later this year will destroy the Big Ten West winner and advance to the knockout stages. I don’t go too far in making that prediction. But, anyway, go back to the ACC, which hasn’t had a non-Clemson team in the CFP since its inaugural contest if you discount the changes that made Notre Dame’s appearance count under the banner conference two years ago. Yes, Syracuse looks strong now, and Wake Forest and North Carolina have roads leading to the promised land, but that’s not going to happen. Can anyone really envision a scenario where one of those three creates it? All of them will be destroyed by one of the best of the SEC. Clemson’s silver disc streak against its contemporaries in hopes of winning the national title would lead to a spot in the CFP should it win. The tigers are better than a year ago. Even if they were a one-loss conference champion, they would make it to more than one SEC third team.
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The three-group SEC scenario must both Georgia and Tennessee, as well as Alabama or Ole Miss. It is not possible that two teams from the SEC West and one of the Volunteer Teams or the Bulldogs could be involved. New Year’s Six, but there won’t be enough quality wins to get into the knockout stages. If Tennessee or Georgia were to get ahead before or after their clash, this scenario would not have happened. It was due to the strength of Josh Heupel’s team that this scenario was not taken out of any discussion immediately.
Is this scenario likely to happen? No. The diversity selection committee will not put three teams from the same conference together unless they make no other move. A lot of dominos have to be in the SEC’s way for that to happen, but a lot of the unlikely ones, such as Oklahoma that lost three, lost to Greg Sankey’s tournament. Two teams from the same congress qualifying for the knockout stages have occurred in three of the last five editions, including the most recent two. A slippery slope exists giving the SEC a triple. Now return to your collective groans until we get an extended playoff.
