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Here Are the Challenges Ahead for California’s Ban on Gas Cars


California has set a bold goal: In 13 years, it will no longer be possible to buy a new car anywhere in the state that runs entirely on gasoline.

However, it remains to be seen whether California can make that vision a reality. The state’s plan to Ban on sales of new internal combustion engine vehicles by 2035, approved by regulators on Thursday, places strict limits on what automakers can and cannot sell. Failure to meet those goals carries the risk of hefty fines.

But whether the rule works in practice will depend on whether consumers accept electric cars and how quickly automakers can ramp up production of cleaner vehicles. Anyway, this can prove to be a challenge. There are also broad expectations of regulatory challenges that could stymie policy, and some experts say those challenges could have a high chance of success given the unusual process California is allowed to set. some pollution laws of its own.

“It’s one way to set traffic policy,” says Scott Segal, a partner at Bracewell LLP, a law firm that represents clients in the energy industry. “This is clearly a very tight schedule that California envisions as a standard for new car sales,” he said. “It has pretty big consequences for consumers and the supply chain.”

Additionally, more than a dozen other states — along with California, which represent about a third of the U.S. auto market — generally adopt California’s stricter standards for auto pollution. Many have signaled that they will follow the new rule, and five are actively preparing to do so. But the speed and quickness of those decisions could complicate deployment because of a matter of scale: A larger market could push down the price of electric cars due to production efficiency. Or, it could force prices higher if it causes more production bottlenecks like the ones that have plagued the industry.

For many years, governments around the world tried more moderate measures to encourage sales of electric vehicles, which typically produce less planet-warming gases like carbon dioxide than traditional gasoline-powered models. China orders automakers to produce a certain fraction of the zero-emissions vehicles in their fleet each year. Norway uses a combination of financial and tax incentives to drive consumers towards electric cars, which now account for 80% of new sales there.

California is taking a blunter approach. If automakers want to enter America’s largest vehicle market, 35 percent of the new passenger cars and light trucks they sell by 2026 will have to be electric or other zero-emission models. up from about 16% today.

Those targets increase to 68% by 2030 and 100% by 2035.

If automakers fail to comply, they face a $20,000 fine for every new vehicle sold in violation of the norms. Since that amount far exceeds the profit margins of conventional passenger transport, it is unlikely that companies will choose to pay the fine, experts say.

“California is very good at enforcing its rules,” said Dan Becker, director of the Safe Climate Transport Campaign at the Center for Biodiversity. “Companies are in danger of violating those rules.”

But the rule can’t force California car buyers to actually buy the new electric vehicles that automakers will now have to offer. And if consumers don’t follow through, that’s a much harder problem to solve. Ultimately, experts say, the plan is based on the belief that people will be as eager to flock to battery-powered vehicles in the coming years as they have been in the past, quickly adopting cell phones. or microwave.

The regulation also doesn’t affect the hundreds of thousands of used cars and light trucks sold in California each year, raising the possibility that some people could simply keep their old gas-powered cars longer if they don’t want to. buy electric car models.

That’s worrying for the climate, Mr. Becker said. “Many vehicles manufactured and sold after 2030 will still be on the roads and polluting by 2050,” he said. Mr. Becker said his team and others have pushed for the regulators of California has extended its total ban on the sale of gas-powered vehicles to 2030 and will continue to campaign for that change.

Officials at the California Air Resources Board, which oversees the new rule, said they reserve the right to revise targets if the market doesn’t develop the way they hoped. In one report in April, dealership staff wrote that “consumer challenges” could prove a significant roadblock, noting that many are wary of the high cost of electric vehicles, the availability of charging and not familiar with the technology.

Currently, the average electric car sells for around $66,000, compared with $48,000 for the average internal combustion engine vehicle, according to Kelley Blue Book. And while many homeowners can fit chargers in their garages, those who live in apartment buildings don’t always have that option. The state may need an additional 1.9 million public chargers by 2035 to meet the new goals, researchers at the University of California, Davis, estimated.

State officials say those challenges are surmountable, pointing out that studies show that electric vehicles can save money over time thanks to lower fuel and maintenance costs. They also estimate that electric vehicle prices will become competitive with gasoline-powered models by 2030, if not sooner, due to rising production and falling battery costs.

New California rules give automakers extra credit to meet their sales quotas if they offer new electric vehicle models that cost less than $20,275 or sell upcoming discounted cars. rent. And the Inflation Reduction Act, recently signed into law by President Biden, offers tax breaks of up to $7,500 for zero-emissions vehicles made in North America, though many automakers say they may struggle to qualify in the near term as they adjust to the supply chain. .

Consumer demand seems to be growing rapidly. One Recent surveys from Consumer Reports shows that 14% of Americans will “definitely” buy or rent an electric vehicle for their next purchase, up from 4% in 2020, while another 22% will “seriously consider” it. . But the survey also found that 28% of Americans would not consider switching.

Gil Tal, a transportation expert at the University of California, Davis, says he’s less worried about the lack of consumer interest. Many companies like Ford and Tesla, he noted, There’s been a long waiting list for new electric vehicles. “Currently, automakers can sell as many of them as they make,” he said. “The bigger question is whether they can really make enough cars!”

Even as automakers race to ramp up production, they may face supply chain constraints. For example, Ford has announced an investment of more than $50 billion in electric vehicle batteries by 2026, but company executives say they are still grappling with scarcity of key metals and other minerals. used in batteries, such as lithium, cobalt and nickel.

California’s rules give automakers some flexibility in meeting their sales goals. For example, if companies make too much of a profit on sales in the early years, they can “bank” some of those credits for later years or sell them to other automakers. failed to achieve their goal. And up to 20% of their sales could be plug-in hybrids, which are cars that use batteries for shorter trips but also have gasoline engines that work for longer trips. Plug-in hybrids may appeal to some buyers worried about battery range.

Some environmental advocates have expressed concern that automakers may end up selling fewer electric cars than advertised under the new rules because excess credits have been banked under the schemes. California’s earlier and less stringent measures to boost sales of zero-emissions vehicles, though regulators have approved new adjustments to restrict the use of previous credits.

Bill Magavern, policy director for the Coalition for Clean Air, said: “The new rule corrects a lot of the mistakes made in the old program. “But it is still too generous in supporting the credits.”

Other big questions surrounding California’s new rule are how many other states adopt it, and whether it can be stopped by lawsuits.

Under the Clean Air Act, California is allowed to set stricter regulations on vehicle emissions than the federal government and other states are allowed to adopt California’s rules if they so desire. California can enforce its rule after receiving a formal waiver from the Environmental Protection Agency.

The EPA is likely to grant California an exemption to enforce the new rules.

Mr. Segal said legal challenges to that waiver were certain. If successful, those challenges could strengthen the argument of attorneys from Republican states, who have filed a separate, broader lawsuit opposing California’s decades-long ability to set its own pollution rules, he said.

Opponents of California’s new rule may have a strong case to oppose the EPA’s waiver, he said. That’s because applying for the waiver stems from the argument that California faces unique environmental consequences from smog and other pollutants traditionally found nowhere else. However, state leaders have made it clear that the automotive mandate is about tackling the greenhouse gas emissions that cause climate change – climate change is not unique to California, however. .

“The problem with climate change policymaking is that California faces the same consequences from climate change as Texas or West Virginia,” said Mr. Segal.

In recent years, 15 other states (together accounting for about a third of the US car market) adopted California’s previous, smaller regulations were intended to encourage the sale of electric vehicles. Now, each state will need to make a decision on whether to impose a new 2035 ban on internal combustion engines. So far, five of those states — Massachusetts, New York, Oregon, Vermont and Washington — have signaled that they are prepared to do so this year, once California receives the EPA waiver.

Other states may take longer. In recent years, officials in Colorado and Minnesota met with fierce opposition from local car dealers and industry corporations as they moved to adopt some of California’s earlier rules, though both states eventually moved forward.

Dr. Tal of the University of California, Davis, points out that many states much farther California in adopting electric vehicles and installing chargers, which could make it “harder” to pursue its own bans on internal combustion engines.

“This is a transformative policy that you can expect to see a lot of debate in other states,” said Aaron Kressig, director of transportation electrification at Western Resources Advocates, a conservation group. “We think these rules benefit consumers, but there’s still a lot of work to be done to understand how they will affect people.”



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